WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure I buy the west/cutter solutions though. Worst case maybe a slight move before we see it Miller B to the coast.The models have been over playing the dump into the SW forcing ridging in front of the system. My biggest fear at this point is suppression and I am starting to feel a little better about that from what i am seeing on the runs. Seasonal trend, and one that fits for Nina's, is to dampen out the s/w's. Trend has been toward more progressive, less amplified flow, with a weaker southwest trough and weaker southeast ridge than what mid and long range progs have shown. Which is just one reason the Euro looks kooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Seasonal trend, and one that fits for Nina's, is to dampen out the s/w's. Trend has been toward more progressive, less amplified flow, with a weaker southwest trough and weaker southeast ridge than what mid and long range progs have shown. Which is just one reason the Euro looks kooky. Yeah, not so sure of the "double pump" the Euro is throwing out there, though it is an interesting solution to be sure. One indication that's been showing up with this is the good moisture fetch/flow into the cold air; so perhaps even a less amplified wave can give us a solid event (caveat being, of course, that the best moisture flow occurs most in the more amplified solutions!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Two interesting solutions for sure. Didn't GFS outperform EURO with the last threat? I'm too old to remember and I didn't take notes. But we're eight days out and that's outside the envelope of certainty anyway. But as Bob said, each solution is a winner for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like 2 separate events on the 28th and 30th. Maybe that's what the Euro was trying to advertise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's very encouraging that all models give us decent precipitation and cold air during the period of interest despite the spread in how it gets done. We can sort out the column and details in a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEPS are beginning to focus on the 29th. 48% of members with DC snow is pretty good for 8 days out. No huge hits, but a better snow/rain ratio than the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Not for a second do I think the Euro plays out as recently depicted, but I’d honestly take cold and dry over ice any day. Ice is for big gulps and slurpees. Not my yard! I’m here for a cold white smoke party only. Can’t wait to see 18z happy hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 I've got no complaints about the EPS 500mb evolution, that's for sure. Day 6-10 looks beautiful. -EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA/50-50 and a shortwave dropping through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 looking at the 850 temp anomaly maps from the 12z eps, I just don't see any evidence of a warming or a way for the eps to suggest the storm(s) cut to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I've got no complaints about the EPS 500mb evolution, that's for sure. Day 6-10 looks beautiful. -EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA/50-50 and a shortwave dropping through. Big spread in there. The good thing is that overall it supports winter wx. The bad thing is there is no clarity on how things evolve after Christmas. A bit of a pattern change on the horizon at the end of the run. PV retreats poleward so for now the -AO appears transient at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big spread in there. The good thing is that overall it supports winter wx. The bad thing is there is no clarity on how things evolve after Christmas. A bit of a pattern change on the horizon at the end of the run. PV retreats poleward so for now the -AO appears transient at best. Yeah, it seemed to follow the Op in the sense that there's obviously some timing variations in there. The run in general was drier as well compared to 0z, which also maybe follows the Op. A wintry pattern regardless, but tougher to pinpoint a single date for a big event. Looks like this run favored the 30th whereas previous EPS and the GEFS point a day earlier. Very end of the run the pattern goes to pot, but that's been changing. All that probably means is that the weeklies will suck ;-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If the GFS were to verify, I might need a thawing out period. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, it seemed to follow the Op in the sense that there's obviously some timing variations in there. The run in general was drier as well compared to 0z, which also maybe follows the Op. A wintry pattern regardless, but tougher to pinpoint a single date for a big event. Looks like this run favored the 30th whereas previous EPS and the GEFS point a day earlier. Very end of the run the pattern goes to pot, but that's been changing. All that probably means is that the weeklies will suck ;-P It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead. An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Put some snowpack down and then get an arctic high to park overhead afterwards and we could get those cold outliers to verify around New Years. But either way, that's impressively cold. Would certainly let December finish below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead. An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble... 9 days straight below freezing at DCA? Not sure I've ever seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead. An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble... That 62 degrees on Saturday is sure going to throw some people into a false sense of warmth around the holidays after the last 2 years. Tehehehe....suckers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, das said: 9 days straight below freezing at DCA? Not sure I've ever seen that before. For folks who waste enormous amounts of time looking at weather models every year...that chart is kinda mind blowing. Weather isn't static like those means show so reality will be more up and down but we're probably going to have some memorable cold days coming up...hopefully with 6" of snow and a foot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I second what Bob and others are saying. The clarity of the evolution of things post X-mas is uncertain. I think the difference in each model is a result of how things play out in the Pacific with each short-wave crashing into the coast. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but where those short-waves originate can't be a good source for initialization data. Therefore it may take some time for the models to key in on certain waves. What I am in love with today is that block over the Hudson showing up. That is formed in result of the ULL heading into 50/50 position. The cold air has no choice but to filter in the CONUS. All we can ask for at this range is the potential with this pattern. Anyone expecting run to run consistency in all the models with timing and strength of any storm is just wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead. An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble... Xmas on is shaping to be an amazing time. Add some snow cover, and maybe one of the airports could register a single digit or near zero temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 A bit drier than 0z and must have more members with rain/mix later on. But a very wintry period shaping up either way for next week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, das said: 9 days straight below freezing at DCA? Not sure I've ever seen that before. Climo almost always wins...almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Climo almost always wins...almost Matt would always say there is a reason something has never happened before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Long time lurker first time poster. My take away from the guidance is we are entering primetime climo with our major models predicting well below normal temps and average to above average precipitation. This winter has shown that the models haven't locked in on specific threats until 48-72 hours out. I think we are in for a wild ride. Thanks to all the big name posters on this forum for making my winter weather weenie hobby so enjoyable. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s a heck of a deep freeze. Very impressive at range. To me, what makes it extraordinary is that it's been getting colder with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 49 minutes ago, das said: 9 days straight below freezing at DCA? Not sure I've ever seen that before. The last time, I think, was 12/16/89-12/25/89 (10 days). I don't think there's been any since, but that's just going off of checking the cold stretches I can remember. The end of 1/04 came pretty close, but there was a one day interruption in the midst of an 8-day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Amped said: N and W burbs are pretty bad during Ice Stoms. 2013-2014 took quite a toll on the trees here. This storm would be rather serious even in the cities cause it starts supercold. Only good thing is we'll probably warm into the upper 40s once the wind shifts to the west, but the damage maybe done by that time. I LOVE ice. I'd be out on another tremendously spectacular ice jebwalk while everyone else would be layin' around screaming and crying dolorously with smashed up legs, backs and hips. I would also be treated to the sweet music of tires spinning making that wonderful high pitched whining as hapless drivers try to get out of their driveways, fail, then get out of their cars in a huff, only to fall HARD on the solid icepack and smash their hips to hell. This is an excellent way to finish up 2017 and start out the New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I LOVE ice. I'd be out on another tremendously spectacular ice jebwalk while everyone else would be layin' around screaming and crying dolorously with smashed up legs, backs and hips. I would also be treated the sweet music of tires spinning making that wonderful high pitched whining as hapless drivers try to get out of their driveways, fail, then get out of their cars in a huff, only to fall HARD on the solid icepack and smash their hips to hell. One for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm all in if we can get significant frozen with a following deep freeze to keep snowcover as long as possible. IMO, the true measure of a "feels good" winter is snowcover duration. That's what makes it feel like we actually had a winter SEASON (vs a general disastrous season interrupted by a one-hit wonder a la Jan 2016 with RAIN a few days later), and that's what makes 13-14 so special. Sure, I love me some HECSy action as much as anyone, but if I had to pick, I'd rather have consistent snowcover for multiple weeks across met winter. When Jebman gets tired of winning and walking, that's a good winter in my book! Temp trends continue to look impressive, and I'm hoping the next round of runs backs off the ice threat. Ice is pretty to look at, but epic tree and property damage I could do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Not loving this s op run but that 1051 HP has me interested. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The trough surging out of Canada is going for Mexican Takeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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