ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is looking reallllly juice at 216h. At first it looked like it would be a quick punch at 192h and then out to sea, but there's a second slug of moisture. Don't know how temps will evolve in this second system. The important thing to me is that we've had two GFS runs, two GEFS runs, and now the Euro all keying into some serious action starting in the 192h range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wow, not sure what to think with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Euro holding things back in or near the sw.....carp! Euro is a strung out mess. With the first wave we get snow sure but then waste the atmosphere and by the time wave 2 arrives it's a lot of taint. Naso good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is pretty funky and now ice at hr 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Euro holding things back in or near the sw.....carp! It would be a light event capped with a trailing mess. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro is a strung out mess. Pretty much describes every model run in the last 3 days regardless of the H5 pattern shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Second one is ice right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Euro is pretty funky and now ice at hr 222 I thought it was impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Crack-tastic Euro run. I'll give anyone 10:1 on this not happening in any form or fashion. Vort depiction is beyond bizarre. PV in Ontario gets booted east as a bigger PV drops into Alberta on D8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: I thought it was impressive? I should've been more specific, I was talking about the signal for a storm being impressive, but I guess the GFS was the only impressive one. Euro is still strung out mess as mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Well, it would be an EPIC ice storm as depicted so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro gives us a full day of ice in the second event, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: I should've been more specific, I was talking about the signal for a storm being impressive, but I guess the GFS was the only impressive one. Euro is still strung out mess as mentioned. Right, so maybe the lesson here is to let the run finish before commenting whether it is impressive or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Euro gives us a full day of ice in the second event, lol. There's another theme from the last few days. So 2 things are clear, strung-out mess and epic ice event, somewhere in the central or eastern US. We'll know the details in another 10-15 euro runs, stay tuned Tune back in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. That's not a bad scenario, the ice saves us...though it's tough to realize prolonged ice in these parts. We don't do CAD well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. I'd take that honestly. The ice part would be remembered for a while if happened like advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. Very interesting. Any indication of how much below freezing we are during the ice part? I know it's perhaps a bit much to parse those details right now, but I was just curious, since ice potential has been a threat for this event all along in varying degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Reminder that the couple 'perfect' solutions are likely not going to pan out and best to temper expectations. Pattern looks good for frozen but you can see many options are on the table. I dont see the consistency that some are touting on the models. Solutions like the CMC quick hitting SECS to GFS elongated train of snow HECS to Euro in several very different real-weather waves all on the table, to the JMA that phases out west and is a brief thump to rain to dry slot. It is going to be a roller coaster week. Ens the way to go for now. With that said, setup looks solid on GEPS and GEFS.....EPS should be fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Very interesting. Any indication of how much below freezing we are during the ice part? I know it's perhaps a bit much to parse those details right now, but I was just curious, since ice potential has been a threat for this event all along in varying degrees. wx.graphics is stuck at D9-9.25, but when the (2nd?) storm gets going (which may be snow and not ice to start), surface temps are upper 10s and low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Very interesting. Any indication of how much below freezing we are during the ice part? I know it's perhaps a bit much to parse those details right now, but I was just curious, since ice potential has been a threat for this event all along in varying degrees. Changeover starts at 25 degrees, and then warps DC up to near 32, and in fact most of the region to near or below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Crack-tastic Euro run. I'll give anyone 10:1 on this not happening in any form or fashion. Vort depiction is beyond bizarre. PV in Ontario gets booted east as a bigger PV drops into Alberta on D8-9. Really bizarre evolution. Interesting end product though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Since people seem interested in the surface temps when it starts falling, and the ice event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 N and W burbs are pretty bad during Ice Stoms. 2013-2014 took quite a toll on the trees here. This storm would be rather serious even in the cities cause it starts supercold. Only good thing is we'll probably warm into the upper 40s once the wind shifts to the west, but the damage maybe done by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: wx.graphics is stuck at D9-9.25, but when the (2nd?) storm gets going (which may be snow and not ice to start), surface temps are upper 10s and low 20s. Temps are great during ice onset. As depicted it would no doubt be the biggest ice storm we've seen in a long time. The second piece would have some snow and pl before going all zr so between the 2 waves it's a combo of every type of winter wx we can get. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really bizarre evolution. Interesting end product though. Yeah, I guess (although I've been stuck at D9.25 for like 20 mins), but it's just too strange to give it any thought really. I guess I'll take a positive that even such a screwy evolution gets us a memorable 3.5 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Reminder that the couple 'perfect' solutions are likely not going to pan out and best to temper expectations. Pattern looks good for frozen but you can see many options are on the table. I dont see the consistency that some are touting on the models. Solutions like the CMC quick hitting SECS to GFS elongated train of snow HECS to Euro in several very different real-weather waves all on the table, to the JMA that phases out west and is a brief thump to rain to dry slot. It is going to be a roller coaster week. Ens the way to go for now. With that said, setup looks solid on GEPS and GEFS.....EPS should be fun to look at. Not sure I buy the west/cutter solutions though. Worst case maybe a slight move north before we see it Miller B to the coast.The models have been over playing the dump into the SW forcing ridging in front of the system. My biggest fear at this point is suppression and I am starting to feel a little better about that from what i am seeing on the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Many thanks @WxUSAF and @Cobalt! So, reasonably below or near freezing throughout if that were to happen. Would imply that stuff will be a brick by the time we go back into a deep freeze of sorts after that, if this solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 storm issue is the Euro's way of resolving the 2 camps, one west and one east. We've got to stop letting these computers think for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 looking at the day 10 map that finally showed up on es.wx, it might change back to snow before ending, but that's just beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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