WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We at least will have a cold Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looking over the GEFS @ 500 shows a depiction closer to the Euro OP for the 29th storm. Verbatim, it’d certainly help our mid levels and I think it’d work to keep the H pressure in place without getting shoved to the side like the GFS OP did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: Looking over the GEFS @ 500 shows a depiction closer to the Euro OP for the 29th storm. Verbatim, it’d certainly help our mid levels and I think it’d work to keep the H pressure in place without getting shoved to the side like the GFS OP did. Glad the GEFS/EPS are on our side this far out. By far the strongest signal this far out of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like our coldest temps to close out 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The upcoming period actually looks a lot better than 13-14. Similar with the epo but it kinda ends there. In reality we never should have gotten so many events and racked up big totals like we did that winter. A lot of luck was involved. The persistence into late feb/mar was incredible. We had true arctic air in march colliding with early spring shortwaves. Guidance is starting to gravitate towards the ao going negative again and maybe even a transient -nao. 13-14 was raging positive in both the ao/nao. PV displaceent came from the scand-ak ridge bridge. Also, I don't remember a baja stj moisture tap and that looks open for biz coming up. I'll be surprised if we don't get any snow or ice in the next 3 weeks. It will be fun watching the implosions and nuclear meltdowns if we don't though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The upcoming period actually looks a lot better than 13-14. Similar with the epo but it kinda ends there. In reality we never should have gotten so many events and racked up big totals like we did that winter. A lot of luck was involved. The persistence into late feb/mar was incredible. We had true arctic air in march colliding with early spring shortwaves. Guidance is starting to gravitate towards the ao going negative again and maybe even a transient -nao. 13-14 was raging positive in both the ao/nao. PV displaceent came from the scand-ak ridge bridge. Also, I don't remember a baja stj moisture tap and that looks open for biz coming up. I'll be surprised if we don't get any snow or ice in the next 3 weeks. It will be fun watching the implosions and nuclear meltdowns if we don't though. I mean, if we don't get any snow events in the next 3 weeks, we're still on par or better than 14/15 and 15/16, and even 13/14 for some . Somebody said that December snowfall is gravy, but if we luck out on the next 3 weeks, the rest of the winter is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The upcoming period actually looks a lot better than 13-14. Similar with the epo but it kinda ends there. In reality we never should have gotten so many events and racked up big totals like we did that winter. A lot of luck was involved. The persistence into late feb/mar was incredible. We had true arctic air in march colliding with early spring shortwaves. Guidance is starting to gravitate towards the ao going negative again and maybe even a transient -nao. 13-14 was raging positive in both the ao/nao. PV displaceent came from the scand-ak ridge bridge. Also, I don't remember a baja stj moisture tap and that looks open for biz coming up. I'll be surprised if we don't get any snow or ice in the next 3 weeks. It will be fun watching the implosions and nuclear meltdowns if we don't though. We were lucky that the flow was both fast/progressive AND active that year. Waves were coming regularly enough to provide threats but most weren't amping up enough to bully their way into the cold and lift the boundary much. I can think of several of those events where had they amplified much would have gone north. But weak but still decently juiced waves kept sliding SW to NE along the baroclinoc zone all winter. We also got pure luck a few times like the early march system when a lobe of the PV rotated around at the perfect time to suppress what would otherwise been a snowstorm for 40N We might have a little more going for us this time as you pointed out. Now if we can only get the luck we had that year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Excellent podcast by DT. Talks about the potential of each event and the pattern that allows for the storm to form. If you want to hear about the potential event for the 30th, start at 11:45 in the video. My favorite part is when he calls the 18z a "piece of sh*t", and talks about it's bias to over amp storms. Great video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS caught onto the front moving through faster on the 24th. I'm less inclined to call it a POS than I used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Excellent podcast by DT. Talks about the potential of each event and the pattern that allows for the storm to form. If you want to hear about the potential event for the 30th, start at 11:45 in the video. My favorite part is when he calls the 18z a "piece of sh*t", and talks about it's bias to over amp storms. Great video That was a good view. Thanks for posting. Hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS caught onto the front moving through faster on the 24th. I'm less inclined to call it a POS than I used to be. But I think it was also first in holding the front back keeping us warm. Recall both Gfs and Euro showed stalled front, overrunning scenarios. So first to shiat the bed and first to clean up its mess. No accolades for that in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: But I think it was also first in holding the front back. Recall both Gfs and Euro showed stalled front, overrunning scenarios. So first to shiat the bed and first to clean up its mess. No accolades for that in my book. Yes. Correct sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Honestly, nobody should be sweating over the 0z GFS. If it shows crippling snowstorm, cool. If it shows torch, cool. Ops < Ensembles at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Honestly, nobody should be sweating over the 0z GFS. If it shows crippling snowstorm, cool. If it shows torch, cool. Ops < Ensembles at this range. I'm interested in my potential .5 of snow. See if I can bump that up to .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Shortwave not digging as far west as 18z, so the DEC 28th storm might not be as big of a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 00z GFS nice sustainable neg NAO. Later in the run probably has some nice snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Cmc is a monster Long duration 2 part storm. Likely a HECS vebatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Cmc is a money drawn out moisture tap overrunning well before the big show. Don't care what the gfs says. I'm drinking molsen tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cmc is a monster Looked at it thinking you meant as in it was a disaster. Realized you meant it in a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Cmc is a monster Long duration 2 part storm. Likely a HECS vebatimOverrunning enhanced by two coastal lows? Heckuva run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Canadian is on tap for tonight as Bob Chill said... damn that was nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Don't hose me if it's wrong, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Cmc is a money drawn out moisture tap overrunning well before the big show. Don't care what the gfs says. I'm drinking molsen tonight Spooning with the cmc tonight....more coming after 210 dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS still wants to dig a troff in the west, but it happens later this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Much better look on the GFS so far @ 174 hours, it might not end up resulting in the best solution, but the PV is more elongated, and the trough not as deep out west...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 DT says GFS is bullsh*t so we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 00z CMC has basically a dream solution Day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: DT says GFS is bullsh*t so we have that going for us. And he said nothing on the Canadian, so the Canadian is obviously correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Using 10:1 SRs TT shows about 16 inches of snow through 240 on tonight's GGEM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Better look on the gfs? H5 improved but the column is wrecked. It's a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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