Jackstraw Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think it's pick and choose math how a lot of these maps get produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Mentioned it before but for some reason there is a noticeable difference between the Kuchera map at COD compared to the one at Pivotal. The COD one seems a bit inflated to me but may need to observe them over a period of time to be sure. 7+" seems a little steep to me to expect out of this event, but hey you never know. Also curious as to why there's such a sizeable difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 If anyone cares, the 00z Euro did throw a little more precip farther north than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Trends are looking a bit better for cyclone's area. Might get a few inches out there. Yeah there's been a subtle uptick in QPF with just about every model this eve. The new Euro has bumped up precip as well. Can't rule out 3" if ratios end up north of 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: If anyone cares, the 00z Euro did throw a little more precip farther north than the 12z run. Yeah, starting to threaten me lol. Been so starved around here just give me the 4-6 for Xmas and I can do without the flaked out big dog next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It just started snowing about half an hour ago and we got a fluffy 1/4 inch already. It appears we will be under this shield of light snow at least a few hours so this is shaping up to be a nice christmas mood maker. As far as the latest RAP and HRRR I don't think we will get 3 inches of snow and neither does the NWS and I cite radar trends as a source of doubt but I'm betting on a good inch and a half that will hang around for a long, long time. Radar trends being a cause for concern on their southerly trend and development, still a nice northward building trend has allowed us get barely under the blanket of action now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Looking at the latest trends, every single model now puts Detroit over 0.3" qpf, some over 0.4". So a 4" snow forecast is actually being very conservative on ratios, probably more than should be. It actually would appear imo that 4-5" is a better call for Detroit, plus additional tomorrow in squalls. And the timing! Its straight out of Its A Wonderful Life. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Radar this morning seems like the snow really lost its intensity as it came east and seems like some dry air is causing a lot of holes in the precip shield. Strange. Not what I was expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Radar this morning seems like the snow really lost its intensity as it came east and seems like some dry air is causing a lot of holes in the precip shield. Strange. Not what I was expecting that was to be expected, plenty of dry air to overcome, patience needed and the trends are in our favor to over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Also so the flakes falling here are pretty puny and not very dendritic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: that was to be expected, plenty of dry air to overcome, patience needed and the trends are in our favor to over perform True. But looking at upstream radar trends can't hope but to notice the drying trend, esp on nws radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 True. But looking at upstream radar trends can't hope but to notice the drying trend, esp on nws radarIt will eventually fill in. Though i anticipate a donut hole around Chillicothe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Guest said: It will eventually fill in. Though i anticipate a donut hole around Chillicothe. 5-7 on the power of over performance around chillicothe, 1-2 for chillicothe proper due to dry air intrusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Second big snow of the season from an unlikely origin... Over performing fluff makes more cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'm actually in Peoria now. Guess I need to change that on my profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm actually in Peoria now. Guess I need to change that on my profile is it snowing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Flakes pretty small here now. Increasing in size some the last 20 minutes but still kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Flakes pretty small here now. Increasing in size some the last 20 minutes but still kind of meh. light snow has arrived oakbrook, il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12z RAP: 12z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Powerball said: 12z RAP: I think DTX is gonna have to up there totals LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I see radar hallucinations are still a thing. Anyways, this Christmas miracle brought me out of retirement/hibernation for a post. Liking 3-5" here in IKK, which is pretty awesome. To all receiving snow today, enjoy! And happy holidays to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: I think DTX is gonna have to up there totals LOL I agree! Right now 3-4" seems too low. I would go 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, jlauderdal said: is it snowing now? Yea it has since like 5am. Just the flake size was very tiny. But it got a little better. Not sure we will hit 5in like forecasted but 2-3in is a good bet. Snow looks to end here around 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I agree! Right now 3-4" seems too low. I would go 4-5" I would think they would have to upgrade to at least 4-6" based on current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Finally got saturated. Light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Detroit is going to get some of the highest snow totals? I'm shocked............................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Pure pixie dust here from the beginning. Looks like maybe an inch so far lol. These LSRs are gonna be close to 10:1 from the looks of it. Nice to see it snowing on xmas eve though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: I see radar hallucinations are still a thing. Anyways, this Christmas miracle brought me out of retirement/hibernation for a post. Liking 3-5" here in IKK, which is pretty awesome. To all receiving snow today, enjoy! And happy holidays to all. Good to hear from you! Happy holidays to you too! Sounds like you're due to get about the same as here. Don't be a stranger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 A nice band looks like it's working it's way through the Loop and giving "Guest" on the near north-side some good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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