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December 24-25 Snow Potential


Hoosier

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Mentioned it before but for some reason there is a noticeable difference between the Kuchera map at COD compared to the one at Pivotal.  The COD one seems a bit inflated to me but may need to observe them over a period of time to be sure.

7+" seems a little steep to me to expect out of this event, but hey you never know. Also curious as to why there's such a sizeable difference. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Trends are looking a bit better for cyclone's area.  Might get a few inches out there.

Yeah there's been a subtle uptick in QPF with just about every model this eve.  The new Euro has bumped up precip as well.  Can't rule out 3" if ratios end up north of 15:1.  :snowing:

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It just started snowing about half an hour ago and we got a fluffy 1/4 inch already. It appears we will be under this shield of light snow at least a few hours so this is shaping up to be a nice christmas mood maker. As far as the latest RAP and HRRR I don't think we will get 3 inches of snow and neither does the NWS and I cite radar trends as a source of doubt but I'm betting on a good inch and a half that will hang around for a long, long time.

Radar trends being a cause for concern on their southerly trend and development, still a nice northward building trend has allowed us get barely under the blanket of action now.

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Looking at the latest trends, every single model now puts Detroit over 0.3" qpf, some over 0.4". So a 4" snow forecast is actually being very conservative on ratios, probably more than should be. It actually would appear imo that 4-5" is a better call for Detroit, plus additional tomorrow in squalls. And the timing! Its straight out of Its A Wonderful Life. Merry Christmas!

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6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Radar this morning seems like the snow really lost its intensity as it came east and seems like some dry air is causing a lot of holes in the precip shield. Strange. Not what I was expecting 

that was to be expected, plenty of dry air to overcome, patience needed and the trends are in our favor to over perform

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1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

I see radar hallucinations are still a thing. :lol:

Anyways, this Christmas miracle brought me out of retirement/hibernation for a post. Liking 3-5" here in IKK, which is pretty awesome. To all receiving snow today, enjoy! And happy holidays to all.  

Good to hear from you! Happy holidays to you too! Sounds like you're due to get about the same as here. Don't be a stranger!

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