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December 24-25 Snow Potential


Hoosier

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Good thing you're not traveling on the death road (I-65) then.  

That's for sure.  In Sept. 2002 a semi plowed into my Buick Century on I-65 just north of Lowell.  I was in the driver's blind spot.  This was during sunny and dry pavement.  Flipped three times and landed in the median.  Had minor injuries due to seat belt and shoulder harness but car was totaled.  I-65 is usually a bear anyway.    Getting some very light snow here now in Indpls metro this Sat  a,m. (dusting so far) and from radar looks to end shortly until the next wave comes through for Dec 24.

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22 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

What a cool track! 
It's been a while since a strengthening storm moved north through the mountains and western PA. Reminds me of the 1980s.

Yes! I just mentioned that this week. There have not been many systems moving north on the west spine of the Appalachians and Alleghenies this century.

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Updated LOT afd just out mentioned a possible upgrade to a warning for the lakeshore counties of northwest IN due to lake enhancement.

My guess is that the advisory ends up getting expanded into Cook county. Amounts look more marginal (especially northern Cook) but with temps well below freezing, a period of better rates and the day of the year, I think it will be enough.

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Updated LOT afd just out mentioned a possible upgrade to a warning for the lakeshore counties of northwest IN due to lake enhancement.
My guess is that the advisory ends up getting expanded into Cook county. Amounts look more marginal (especially northern Cook) but with temps well below freezing, a period of better rates and the day of the year, I think it will be enough.
I'll be working tomorrow on the day shift for the event, interested to see how the lake enhancement unfolds. Would agree on Cook and then if they do that, they'll probably put in DuPage too because conditions will be hazardous enough and also the goofy shape of Cook would make the map look weird lol.

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23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Updated LOT afd just out mentioned a possible upgrade to a warning for the lakeshore counties of northwest IN due to lake enhancement.

My guess is that the advisory ends up getting expanded into Cook county. Amounts look more marginal (especially northern Cook) but with temps well below freezing, a period of better rates and the day of the year, I think it will be enough.

12z runs (NAM and GFS) are showing a little more for N. Cook and Dupage, in the ballpark of 2-3", so it wouldn't be totally crazy to add them into the WWA.

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2 minutes ago, homedis said:

NAM is definitely picking up on the possible Lake Enhancement/Effect in NW Indiana with this storm

yeah LOT with a warning for Indiana counties and advisories a bit further north. Makes sense a shift south on the NAM now that LOT bit.......:weep:

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3 km NAM with a nice lake enhanced signature right into my hood.

That being said, if I were LOT, I might stick with a high end advisory for Lake/Porter for now until trends become more clear. If the model signals continue for lake enhancement and/or the system shows any sign of drifting even a hair north, then upgrade.

Edit:  welp, warning it is.  Nice. 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

3 km NAM with a nice lake enhanced signature right into my hood.

That being said, if I were LOT, I might stick with a high end advisory for Lake/Porter for now until trends become more clear. If the model signals continue for lake enhancement and/or the system shows any sign of drifting even a hair north, then upgrade.  

They went warning for Porter

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6 minutes ago, Baum said:

yeah LOT with a warning for Indiana counties and advisories a bit further north. Makes sense a shift south on the NAM now that LOT bit.......:weep:

Maybe one of those times that having an ability to split Cook county into 2 zones (no advisory north, advisory south) would be handy.  

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe one of those times that having an ability to split Cook county into 2 zones (no advisory north, advisory south) would be handy.  

Can't they do that? I've seen it happen in other WFOs, especially out west with the the counties and elevation. I've even seen it along the lake shore a few times.

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4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Can't they do that? I've seen it happen in other WFOs, especially out west with the the counties and elevation. I've even seen it along the lake shore a few times.

Yeah there are some that do the split. I'm not sure if they could just do it or if it would have to go through some sort of approval process.  Maybe Ricky could provide some info.

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2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Can someone explain why there is a gap in the advisory areas ? Louisville and Lexington are under an advisory but Cincinnati isnt and then further north there is another advisory.

Technically speaking from Dayton south in ILN CWA its the possibility of 3" and they are only saying 2. That being said in the past they would issue a WWA for the first widespread snowfall of the season and being Christmas I thought they would have and they eventually might.

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