Jackstraw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm gonna do it, can't take it. 5 in MBY by midnight Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z runs so far are not as far north as the 12z ECMWF was. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds or shifts a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z runs so far are not as far north as the 12z ECMWF was. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds or shifts a bit south.How far north was the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It looks like the models are showing lake enhancement for over here on the Lakeshore in West Michigan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, homedis said: How far north was the 12z Euro? It had the heaviest band right into Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yup it is, good friend of mine. Maybe he'll post on here at some point. As to your question about lake enhancement, I do think it will occur. In the NAM 10 m wind barbs you can see the hint at low level convergence at 15-21z, north-northwest winds just offshore and north-northeast winds on the other side of the southern part of the lake. What's cool is that you can see the lake enhanced convergence at 21z with the higher wind speed just north of Lake and Porter County (also an increase from 15kt to 20kt from 18z to 21z in the north-northwest wind barb just off of Cook County). The 00z run verbatim looks like lake enhancement would be more focused into NW IN, but with the background gradient fairly light, it wouldn't take much to turn the flow just off of Cook County to north/north-northeast. With north-northwest to northwest winds inland over NE IL, the above scenario would mean low level convergence into parts of Cook, probably downtown and south, and lake enhancement to the synoptic snowfall. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Decent delta T to work with. That light wind field does add some uncertainty, at least for part of Sunday, but maybe the lake adds like 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Decent delta T to work with. That light wind field does add some uncertainty, at least for part of Sunday, but maybe the lake adds like 1-3"?Hoping that even if we don’t get the system to shift even more north, lake enhancement will make up for it near Chicagoland. We shall see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z runs so far are not as far north as the 12z ECMWF was. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds or shifts a bit south.I think important takeaway was that there were slight adjustments north in NAM and GFS which had a few cycles ago been farthest south and GEM basically held serve. But as you said not as north as Euro, so its 00z run will be interesting. No significant red flags in the modeling yet for this to miss the Chicago area and about 36 hours out til the snow gets into the CWA, I'm cautiously optimistic it's a good sign. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Decent delta T to work with. That light wind field does add some uncertainty, at least for part of Sunday, but maybe the lake adds like 1-3"?I could see that happening, 1-3" bump in totals where enhancement sets up. The synoptic + lake enhancement combo along with favorably deep DGZ could yield some pretty nice rates. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro adjusted slightly south, pretty much in line/slightly better than other foreign guidance. 2-5" verbatim on that run from northwest to southeast across the Chicago metro using the Kuchera ratio map. QPF shows a distinct lake effect signal over the lake, which may in reality be more likely to be over NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro a decent bump south compared to the 12Z for Iowa/northwest IL. Best snows are now south of I-80 in Iowa. Feeling pretty decent about a fluffy inch or two here. Just enough to make it look festive in time for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z Euro showing 7-8" for southeast MI/Detroit area through Christmas. When you're hot you're hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro adjusted slightly south, pretty much in line/slightly better than other foreign guidance. 2-5" verbatim on that run from northwest to southeast across the Chicago metro using the Kuchera ratio map. QPF shows a distinct lake effect signal over the lake, which may in reality be more likely to be over NW IN. Feeling pretty good about 3" or 4" here at this point. Seems like somebody in northwest Indiana could get over 4"... more likely near the lake but possibly inland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 All I need is over an 1" of snow in Northern Cook County and I'll be happy, which seems pretty reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 00z Euro showing 7-8" for southeast MI/Detroit area through Christmas. When you're hot you're hot. I don't know what maps you are looking at, but the Euro maps I am viewing show 3-4 across SE Michigan. Not complaining at all, but I don't see 7-8 anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Man, you can tell a lot of us in this sub have been jilted by the cheerleader. Must be a little Missouri blood in a lot of us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Let's Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Not sure what the qpf is on the euro. But remember this will be a higher ratio snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said: I don't know what maps you are looking at, but the Euro maps I am viewing show 3-4 across SE Michigan. Not complaining at all, but I don't see 7-8 anywhere. Kuchera on Weatherbell. Shows 7-8" from north to south in Detroit. EDIT: Ninja'd by AWMT300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, cyclone77 said: Kuchera on Weatherbell. Shows 7-8" from north to south in Detroit. I stand corrected. Thank you for posting. Currently using a subpar (free) euro output, but better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, AWMT30 said: Let's Go! A little of that is probably from tonight, but still...what eye candy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: A little of that is probably from tonight, but still...what eye candy!!! You have Geos living in your basement don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Not sure what the qpf is on the euro. But remember this will be a higher ratio snow. See, I am used to 6:1 or 7:1 ratios. Forgot that clippers overperform in terms of ratio since I haven't experienced one in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: A little of that is probably from tonight, but still...what eye candy!!! Yes only about 2" of that is from tonight verbatim on the euro my dude. Still what a sexy Euro Run LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Not sure what the qpf is on the euro. But remember this will be a higher ratio snow. Subtract about .1 to account for the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 00z Euro showing 7-8" for southeast MI/Detroit area through Christmas. When you're hot you're hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: You have Geos living in your basement don't you? Haha. I forgot about geos. Hope he is well out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 ILX hoisted a WWA for their northern half of their cwa I-72 northSent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Subtract about .1 to account for the first storm Another northern creeper this am. I've been watching the northern flanks of this and thinking a few miles more will make all the difference. Currently sitting in the 0.5-0.6 line at home. We have done very well this season with the LES enhancement of systems off o Lake Erie this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Latest NAM is a lot like the EURO with the Christmas Eve event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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