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December 24-25 Snow Potential

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The trend is our friend

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Indeed

Was looking up Christmas Eve snows, and there hasn't even been a 2" snow in Chicago since 1997 (a storm I remember quite well as it had some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen).  The 2002 storm produced most of its snow on the 25th.

Will be interesting to see what you guys do as far as any possible headlines, especially south of the city.  Amounts may be marginal but the timing could hardly be worse with a lot of travelers and last minute shoppers out and about.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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Indeed
Was looking up Christmas Eve snows, and there hasn't even been a 2" snow in Chicago since 1997 (a storm I remember quite well as it had some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen).  The 2002 storm produced most of its snow on the 25th.
Will be interesting to see what you guys do as far as any possible headlines, especially south of the city.  Amounts may be marginal but the timing could hardly be worse with a lot of travelers and last minute shoppers out and about.
2010 was close with 1.9". That was a very nice clipper that focused over the southwest half of LOT CWA. As far as headlines for Sunday, if latest Euro verifies, we're headed for an advisory I'd imagine. The Kuchera map on WxBell has a swath of 5" right across the heart of the metro.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

2010 was close with 1.9". That was a very nice clipper that focused over the southwest half of LOT CWA. As far as headlines for Sunday, if latest Euro verifies, we're headed for an advisory I'd imagine. The Kuchera map on WxBell has a swath of 5" right across the heart of the metro.

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Nice.  Looking at some forecast soundings around the area, the DGZ is 150+ mb deep.  Decent lift in the column. Should be able to fluff things up nicely.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Liking the trends!!!

2016- snow depth 5" on Christmas eve and 3" on Christmas day. It was white but slushy and messy.

2015- bare

2014- bare

2013- LOL. There was a fresh dusting and old patches of snow, but depth officially a T. What is lol about it is that from early Dec to late Mar snow covered the ground, a winter of record snowfall, days with snow on the ground, and depth of snow. Yet we went briefly down to a T from Dec 23-25. Worst timing for a historic winter.

2012- just under an inch of snow fell during the evening Christmas eve making for a last minute treat.

2011- bare

2010- 5" snowpack

2009- an inch of snowcover Christmas eve was washed away by rain Christmas day

2008- rain Christmas eve sunk a 13" snowpack to 8" for Christmas day, which froze, but still a white Christmas.

2007- a dusting of snow fell but a 10" snowpack was grinched away just a few days before, so no official white Christmas. 

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Liking the trends!!!

2016- snow depth 5" on Christmas eve and 3" on Christmas day. It was white but slushy and messy.

2015- bare

2014- bare

2013- LOL. There was a fresh dusting and old patches of snow, but depth officially a T. What is lol about it is that from early Dec to late Mar snow covered the ground, a winter of record snowfall, days with snow on the ground, and depth of snow. Yet we went briefly down to a T from Dec 23-25. Worst timing for a historic winter.

2012- just under an inch of snow fell during the evening Christmas eve making for a last minute treat.

2011- bare

2010- 5" snowpack

2009- an inch of snowcover Christmas eve was washed away by rain Christmas day

2008- rain Christmas eve sunk a 13" snowpack to 8" for Christmas day, which froze, but still a white Christmas.

2007- a dusting of snow fell but a 10" snowpack was grinched away just a few days before, so no official white Christmas. 

Nothing like one single solid WC in a decade! Others were compromised in some way, shape, or fashion..you're due I'd say

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Nothing like one single solid WC in a decade! Others were compromised in some way, shape, or fashion..you're due I'd say

Meh. 2013 waa still nice with mood snow falling. 2010 snow was old but still fresh-ish since there were no thaw. The water laden snow froze in 2008 causing the snowpack to glisten on Christmas. And 2012 was fresh but light. The perfect White Christmas where snow falls Christmas eve and lays down a blanket for the big day is rare....but we had it back to back in 2002 and 2003. 

Official White Christmases at Detroit this century:

2016

2012

2010

2008

2005

2004

2003

2002

2000

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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Another bump north on the NAMs due to stronger wave with more ridging ahead of it. 1"+ line up to WI border on 12km NAM. Soundings showing DGZ depth around 5000 feet, so ratios should be higher than average at 15:1 or even higher, maybe up to 20:1 if supersaturation through the column occurs.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Indeed

Was looking up Christmas Eve snows, and there hasn't even been a 2" snow in Chicago since 1997 (a storm I remember quite well as it had some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen).  The 2002 storm produced most of its snow on the 25th.

Will be interesting to see what you guys do as far as any possible headlines, especially south of the city.  Amounts may be marginal but the timing could hardly be worse with a lot of travelers and last minute shoppers out and about.

That was a phenomenal storm.  Had a mix of sleet and snow at onset around noon, and then it quickly transitioned over to heavy wet snow and ripped for hours.  Picked up over 8" IIRC.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

That was a phenomenal storm.  Had a mix of sleet and snow at onset around noon, and then it quickly transitioned over to heavy wet snow and ripped for hours.  Picked up over 8" IIRC.

Wasn't anywhere close to those amounts at my location, but the flakes were just unreal.  It was like a bunch of parachutes floating down from the sky.    

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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25 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Looking forward to possibly 2-3 inches of snow for Christmas Eve day and night which would really enhance the holiday atmosphere here in central IN.  What a delightful surprise.

Good thing you're not traveling on the death road (I-65) then.  

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snowlover2

snowlover2

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9 minutes ago, homedis said:

00z NAM looks very similar to the 18z, maybe a tad more north. Anyone think there could be some lake enhancement for Chicagoland from this storm?

Not really. It was stronger and had more snow farther south. It was a step in the right direction for a better system.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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Feeling pretty decent about 1-4" from north to south across the Chicago metro. In addition to the NAM improving slightly, the SREF mean increased a bit with more members higher than the mean QPF and snowfall. I think there's room for this to improve even a bit more if the 12z ECMWF comes closest to reality.

Here's a nice writeup by Thundersnow12 about this system:
http://illinoisstormchasers.com/white_christmas_possible/

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homedis

homedis

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16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Feeling pretty decent about 1-4" from north to south across the Chicago metro. In addition to the NAM improving slightly, the SREF mean increased a bit with more members higher than the mean QPF and snowfall. I think there's room for this to improve even a bit more if the 12z ECMWF comes closest to reality.

Here's a nice writeup by Thundersnow12 about this system:
http://illinoisstormchasers.com/white_christmas_possible/

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That's Thundersnow12?? That's so funny, I have been following Illinois Storm Chasers on FB for a while.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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That's Thundersnow12?? That's so funny, I have been following Illinois Storm Chasers on FB for a while.

Yup it is, good friend of mine. Maybe he'll post on here at some point. As to your question about lake enhancement, I do think it will occur. In the NAM 10 m wind barbs you can see the hint at low level convergence at 15-21z, north-northwest winds just offshore and north-northeast winds on the other side of the southern part of the lake. What's cool is that you can see the lake enhanced convergence at 21z with the higher wind speed just north of Lake and Porter County (also an increase from 15kt to 20kt from 18z to 21z in the north-northwest wind barb just off of Cook County).

 

The 00z run verbatim looks like lake enhancement would be more focused into NW IN, but with the background gradient fairly light, it wouldn't take much to turn the flow just off of Cook County to north/north-northeast. With north-northwest to northwest winds inland over NE IL, the above scenario would mean low level convergence into parts of Cook, probably downtown and south, and lake enhancement to the synoptic snowfall.

 

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