Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Well, we have the GFS as a lingering holdout, but most other models are indicating the potential for something during this time from near/north of the Ohio River up into parts of WI/MI. Kinda early to get into amounts but if the consensus verifies, could see an area of a few to possibly several inches especially with decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Liking my chances of a white Christmas at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Still waiting to see if Thur/Fri delivers before re-focusing on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Liking my chances of a white Christmas at this point. You are in Dayton, right? I am just north of Columbus. I don't have access to either the Canadian or the Euro. Did they both show a possibility of snow for central Ohio for Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 What a Christmas treat this would be if it came true. Especially after deep snow vanishing the past 3 days. The timing is something you usually see in a fictional tv movie. Of course plenty of time for it to change for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: What a Christmas treat this would be if it came true. Especially after deep snow vanishing the past 3 days. The timing is something you usually see in a fictional tv movie. Of course plenty of time for it to change for better or worse. This is what makes it so intriguing to watch. I agree that some changes are still possible. The main vort was still partially off-shore for the 12z runs this morning so I expect some more changes by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Going to be interesting to see if the CMC can get the win on this one it has had that snow on Christmas Morning now for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 39 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: You are in Dayton, right? I am just north of Columbus. I don't have access to either the Canadian or the Euro. Did they both show a possibility of snow for central Ohio for Christmas? Euro yes and GGEM has snow on 23/24 and again on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 The Gulf is cut off for this system, so it will be somewhat moisture starved. Hopefully still enough for a 2-4/3-5 type outcome. You can see the differences in the handling of the trough, with the GFS flatter/less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah, might need a thread for that eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, might need a thread for that eventually. Nice to see more than one thread rolling at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, sielicki said: Can you say making up for lost time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 As of Wed. evening IND has low confidence forecast of less than 2" of snow for Christmas but are at least mentioning the possibility of a midweek storm as indicated above. But these GFS modeled storms seem to come and go like ripples in a stream. Need more consistency within and model agreement with others before I can get really concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Despite the GFS and GEFS not biting on this one yet, there was a pretty good signal on the 12z Euro Ensemble today. A majority of the members had light to moderate qpf. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I just joined f5weather tonight and was able to look at gem and euro. They both remarkably are in good agreement. Have a pretty robust wave riding up the baroclinic zone. The precip shield even had a nice deformation zone look to it. Euro had slightly more qpf but in general both models had 2-4in of snow running from central MO to central IL and across a good portion of Indiana and Ohio. This system will be limited because of moisture but high LSR's would compensate. I know gem has a bad track record but with euro showing this to I'm more keen to believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Despite the GFS and GEFS not biting on this one yet, there was a pretty good signal on the 12z Euro Ensemble today. A majority of the members had light to moderate qpf. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 00z NAM not playing ball, so we may be setting up the ol American/foreign model camps if things remain status quo on this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM not playing ball, so we may be setting up the ol American/foreign model camps if things remain status quo on this cycle. Crazy how that works sometimes. I think it is def possible given the energy aloft and a sharp baroclinic zone. Gfs aka goofus has been doing a lot of radical shifts lately. Hard to trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 0z GFS still not playing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 00z GFS and GEM are now keying in on another wave on the 25th into the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 00z GFS and GEM are now keying in on another wave on the 25th into the 26th. Euro still handling Sunday very differently than GFS but took another step south vs 12z run. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro still handling Sunday very differently than GFS but took another step south vs 12z run. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yep, best snow basically on a UIN-LAF-CLE line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yep, best snow basically on a UIN-LAF-CLE line.Starting to lose hope for here unless we see a rally tomorrow. Would be a kick in the teeth if that solution as depicted verified lol.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6z GFS finally showing hints of the Christmas eve system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z GFS joins the party. Has a more robust wave for Christmas eve especially the more east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yes and is wagons south with the fantasy big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The models are an absolute mess right now in the extended. One thing at a time lol. Christmas mood snow definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Seems like we are heading toward some consensus. That sound you hear is me trying to drag this thing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z Ukie looks pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 12z and 00z Euro are not exactly worlds apart, but the 12z definitely favors E/Central IN through OH for a nice couple inches of Christmas snow 00z Euro: 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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