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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We know his game by now. No one is trying to steal his snow but God almighty everything is higher and bigger and more damaging. 

Here is 0z run, clearly 12z is worse for CT. 

download_model-en-087-0_modez_2017122400

Splitting hairs though. What is the difference? Like 0.05 of qpf as snow for his area? Made a bigger difference to his south. 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 Validation for Kevin if it verifies.  Even gives me enough to keep me happy.

It’s a worse look for CT overall and the trend for a stronger primary is pretty evident. Another nudge nw tonight and it’s american models ftw. 

This will be a nowcast event along 84 and Boston, for sure. If we can cool the mid levels quickly i feel good about waking up in a joyful spirit. 

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Just now, weathafella said:

That’s what I saw as well-although the front  end before the mid levels and 925 warms is improving and flying under the radar.

Yep. I mentioned that to Scott earlier. Front end is cooling on all guidance. It makes sense. Look at the high and look at the dew points and wind direction this afternoon. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. I mentioned that to Scott earlier. Front end is cooling on all guidance. It makes sense. Look at the high and look at the dew points and wind direction this afternoon. 

Couple of minor things, front end might overproduce, being at night those on the very edge might have a tiny advantage. Any thumping will be snow despite a 33 degree surface. I think this will come down to dynamics for those sitting on the edge. FYI Euro was 2 mb deeper offshore the Cape and a half degree or so colder. 

 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Couple of minor things, front end might overproduce, being at night those on the very edge might have a tiny advantage. Any thumping will be snow despite a 33 degree surface. I think this will come down to dynamics for those sitting on the edge. FYI Euro was 2 mb deeper offshore the Cape and a half degree or so colder. 

 

Yeah dynamics will matter a ton. The warm nose aloft too is pretty thin and centered more near 850. 

An under performing storm to me is going to be because of weak dynamics and rates and less because it tracks further west than advertised. We will see. 

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