codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only worthy channel is NBC 30 and they have 3-6”. But it depends which met is on lol. In the old days back in the early to mid 90s Brad Field always had the highest snow forecast and he was wrong a lot...a real lot lol but as a snow enthusiast I would always hope he be right Joe Fury, Bruce Depriest, and Bob Maxon were always the most reasonable and accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boy there is a massive...massive discrepancy with low level temps from guidance. RGEM,NAM,GFS all throw the 32F line padt Hubbdave. Euro keeps it near BOS..so does the WRF ARW-NMM stuff. Huge difference in weather. Wow. I toss anything warming Hubby past 32. One thing in our favor..we have a stout high which will help prevent all out furnace. But man oh man...that is a tough call. We hope, we pray, we want to believe. I'd def lean toward euro temp profile. It makes most sense. It's possible it's slightly too cold but I bet it is closer to reality than the models that try to warm ORH to 35F. Euro has been pretty consistent too in pinning the CF closer to the coast. As you said, that high position is pretty good so you'd think it will try and hold the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 and then there were Nancy Aborn and Geoff Fox.......ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Looking at lows up here in the -10 to -15 range Weds thru Friday, Real man cold. It's going to be brutal. My forecast has highs of 0F or below for a couple days. Looking at maybe 72 hours below 0F based on the zone forecast, ha. I mean its hard to comprehend these values right now but it's going to hurt. High of -3F with a low of -20F on Thursday in the point and click for 700ft. Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs zero to 5 above zero. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 15 below. Thursday Partly sunny. Cold with highs 5 below to zero. Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20 below. Friday Partly sunny. Cold with highs around zero. Friday Night Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows around 10 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: It's going to be brutal. My forecast has highs of 0F or below for a couple days. Looking at maybe 72 hours below 0F based on the zone forecast, ha. I mean its hard to comprehend these values right now but it's going to hurt. High of -3F with a low of -20F on Thursday in the point and click for 700ft. Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs zero to 5 above zero. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 15 below. Thursday Partly sunny. Cold with highs 5 below to zero. Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20 below. Friday Partly sunny. Cold with highs around zero. Friday Night Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows around 10 below. man cold and deep snows...shades of 1717 displaced further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It's going to be brutal. My forecast has highs of 0F or below for a couple days. Looking at maybe 72 hours below 0F based on the zone forecast, ha. I mean its hard to comprehend these values right now but it's going to hurt. High of -3F with a low of -20F on Thursday in the point and click for 700ft. Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs zero to 5 above zero. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 15 below. Thursday Partly sunny. Cold with highs 5 below to zero. Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 20 below. Friday Partly sunny. Cold with highs around zero. Friday Night Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows around 10 below. Only the hardy souls will venture out in that..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd def lean toward euro temp profile. It makes most sense. It's possible it's slightly too cold but I bet it is closer to reality than the models that try to warm ORH to 35F. Euro has been pretty consistent too in pinning the CF closer to the coast. As you said, that high position is pretty good so you'd think it will try and hold the cold in. It gets at least a couple of inches down this way. But it's also not bringing the low up Rt 3 like the other guidance. That's key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Looks like the 12z NAM is definitely stronger with that s/w. Should lead to better secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the 12z NAM is definitely stronger with that s/w. Should lead to better secondary development. Yeah. Def a little colder now at 12z tomorrow than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 LOL, 12KM NAM going for mini Dec 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Wow...a little blitz there after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This has to be one of the most straightforward 4-8'' calls from near Rt. 2 N and W of 495 I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 At least we aren't dealing with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Boy there is a massive...massive discrepancy with low level temps from guidance. RGEM,NAM,GFS all throw the 32F line padt Hubbdave. Euro keeps it near BOS..so does the WRF ARW-NMM stuff. Huge difference in weather. Wow. I toss anything warming Hubby past 32. One thing in our favor..we have a stout high which will help prevent all out furnace. But man oh man...that is a tough call. We hope, we pray, we want to believe. I noticed the same. The primary trend to hold on longer continues on the 6z GEFS. That will really act to limit any snowfall accums in CT, RI and SE MA by limiting dynamics. NE MA inside 495 will struggle from the east winds, but should cash in on the backside with at least a quick 1-2” as the secondary ramps up and the primary fizzles. I think ORH will be right on the boundary of the triple point and coastal front push but will do quite well with ~6”. I like a line from Andover down to ORH, and then I90 across to Pittsfield for the 4-8” amounts. South of I90, mostly wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, BrianW said: At least we aren't dealing with this... Family pictures in shorts and t shirts #neverforget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I noticed the same. The primary trend to hold on longer continues on the 6z GEFS. That will really act to limit any snowfall accums in CT, RI and SE MA by limiting dynamics. NE MA inside 495 will struggle from the east winds, but should cash in on the backside with at least a quick 1-2” as the secondary ramps up and the primary fizzles. I think ORH will be right on the boundary of the triple point and coastal front push but will do quite well with ~6”. I like a line from Andover down to ORH, and then I90 across to Pittsfield for the 4-8” amounts. South of I90, mostly wet. Yea. In CT we will rely on that backside band nam and rgem show to drop a quick inch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It wasn't huge sensible difference here, but I did like seeing the secondary stronger on this run. That's quite the finale on the NAM with 50kt winds on the Cape too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. In CT we will rely on that backside band nam and rgem show to drop a quick inch down. I think interior CT will do better than an inch or two. Esp NW of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 That will be fun to bump tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think interior CT will do better than an inch or two. Esp NW of 84. Nah Pope calling all rain. At any rate , those that live here know the climate and know 3-6+ is coming . Amazing people only using the GFS. Mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3KM NAM goes apesh*t with that final band. That would be fun. Anyways, here's to hoping to pull off some white stuff down this way for christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think interior CT will do better than an inch or two. Esp NW of 84. Deff in NW CT, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think interior CT will do better than an inch or two. Esp NW of 84. I think by the time the temps are supportive, the best dynamics are east. Looks like that Miller B screw zone imo, save extreme NW areas that can stay snow from the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah Pope calling all rain. At any rate , those that live here know the climate and know 3-6+ is coming you know the climate, just like yesterday’s major ice storm.... 2-4” looks fine for you, no reason to keep clicking your heels for higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3KM NAM goes apesh*t with that final band. That would be fun. Anyways, here's to hoping to pull off some white stuff down this way for christmas. Having it go nuts will prob be a requirement for getting more than 6". Even in places like ORH or hubbdave. Without it I think it will be more of a steady light to moderate storm with 3-6" since we're mostly playing with low level forcing. The 500-700 stuff is up in Ny state to powderfreak. He will prob get 8" on .35 of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I think by the time the temps are supportive, the best dynamics are east. Looks like that Miller B screw zone imo. We'll see what the other guidance does, but N ctrl CT to ORH and interior NE MA will do fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Having it go nuts will prob be a requirement for getting more than 6". Even in places like ORH or hubbdave. Without it I think it will be more of a steady light to moderate storm with 3-6" since we're mostly playing with low level forcing. The 500-700 stuff is up in Ny state to powderfreak. He will prob get 8" on .35 of qpf. Yeah it may be that banded sort of conv looking stuff until it exits stage right. You'll get strong low level forcing punching into the dryslot which may aid in that conv look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll see what the other guidance does, but N ctrl CT to ORH and interior NE MA will do fairly well. Agree with that except N ctrl CT. Primary screws that region dynamically imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Agree with that except N ctrl CT. Primary screws that region dynamically imo. Well it's all relative...but I don't see why Kevin can't get at least 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it may be that banded sort of conv looking stuff until it exits stage right. You'll get strong low level forcing punching into the dryslot which may aid in that conv look. Yeah...could also make some totals a bit uneven in the first 3/4ths of the storm. A few spots could get under more convective looking elements for a couple hours and get an extra 2" or something than surrounding area that are slowly chugging along with 1 SM SN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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