CT Valley Snowman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If the goal is for some snow to cover the ground for Christmas I don't believe we have lost that Potential in the zone NW of 84 but south of the Pike. Perhaps we start as light snow than flip to sleet/rain and than back to snow even on the warmer solutions. An inch or two would be just fine, as much as I would like a nice 4,5 spot with no taint the kids would be happy with 1.5. SE of 84 in CT and east of ORH Hills/495 Towards BOS and points South I would be a bit more concerned, especially Coastal CT which could be too far south to even take advantage of a rapidly expanding CCB wrap around as the storm intensifies to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Codfish’s hands felt like two balloons. There is no gain snow hopes receding A distant Grinch poke on the horizon Models coming through with taint now Scott's red flags were up but no one heard what he was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: If the goal is for some snow to cover the ground for Christmas I don't believe we have lost that Potential in the zone NW of 84 but south of the Pike. Perhaps we start as light snow than flip to sleet/rain and than back to snow even on the warmer solutions. An inch or two would be just fine, as much as I would like a nice 4,5 spot with no taint the kids would be happy with 1.5. SE of 84 in CT and east of ORH Hills/495 Towards BOS and points South I would be a bit more concerned, especially Coastal CT which could be too far south to even take advantage of a rapidly expanding CCB wrap around as the storm intensifies to the northeast. The only area in my mind is SE of PVD to BOS line. Anywhere NW of that is fine for several inches or more. What I think the NAM and to a lesser degree Euro are probably right about is that convective flip to snow in those marginal SE areas. If they’re right, they’ll pick up a quick 2-3 inches in short order for a last second walk off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Right now-west of the CT River looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right now-west of the CT River looks good. Gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right now-west of the CT River looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right now-west of the CT River looks good. About time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right now-west of the CT River looks good. I hate being the line..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: Right now-west of the CT River looks good. Don’t agree unless you’re tossing the Nam and Euro West of 95 looks good . It’s Se of that in somewhat of a question . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I think the "most likely" BOX snow map is looking pretty reasonable. Perhaps GC can score on the higher side--18z would suggest its possible in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 First chance I'm really getting a chance to look at things in details and I am rather impressed by the degree of mid-level forcing (vertical velocities) which move over the region despite the track of the 925-700mb lows. When I originally looked at these leveled winds and saw the tracks I got real nervous but then I looked at VV's, frontogenesis, and threw up some bufkit soundings and I was really impressed. Some sneaky warmth between 2000-6000' or so does have me a little worried but that only benefits whoever is just west of this gradient b/c it will rip. I even see a signal for thundersnow but probably northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 gefs trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I just hope we don't have to deal with some sort of subsidence screw zone this way. 18z GFS 900-500mb averaged frontogenesis shows two maxima of enhanced upward vertical motion (NW and NE CT) and I would hope inbetween wouldn't be a subsidence screw zone. Even if it did happen seems like the degree of lift overall is strong enough...so say they're ripping like 2''/Hr the "screw" zone is doing 1'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 18z GFS looks fine for me....850 temps are supportive throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 South of the pike has issues because of the primary: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is a case where I think marginal 850 temperatures are actually alright...and in fact maybe even a good thing. Given the degree of mid-level cold and the degree of lift (plus RH) in the dendritic snowgrowth zone we will be able to generate great dendrites. We will be able to get the snowgrowth we want to see. The only thing the marginal temps will do is just reduce the ratios (which who cares really). The strong temperature gradient will really help to further enhance the degree of upward vertical motion as it will setup an area of very strong frontogenesis which will develop across much of southern New England. This is also primed to occur at the period of maximum QPF so we are going to see a very potent band develop and setup. Its unfortunate this sucker is a fast mover otherwise I think we could be talking 12-18'' type stuff. Regardless I think we see a maximum zone of 8-12+'' from parts of CT right up through portions of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: South of the pike has issues because of the primary: You should requalify that as 395 east and south of Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is a case where I think marginal 850 temperatures are actually alright...and in fact maybe even a good thing. Given the degree of mid-level cold and the degree of lift (plus RH) in the dendritic snowgrowth zone we will be able to generate great dendrites. We will be able to get the snowgrowth we want to see. The only thing the marginal temps will do is just reduce the ratios (which who cares really). The strong temperature gradient will really help to further enhance the degree of upward vertical motion as it will setup an area of very strong frontogenesis which will develop across much of southern New England. This is also primed to occur at the period of maximum QPF so we are going to see a very potent band develop and setup. Its unfortunate this sucker is a fast mover otherwise I think we could be talking 12-18'' type stuff. Regardless I think we see a maximum zone of 8-12+'' from parts of CT right up through portions of MA. Read my mind.....that is why I just posted what I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You should requalify that as 395 east and south of Pike You should start as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Read my mind.....that is why I just posted what I did. perfect the more I look into this the more excited I get. I might not get into the best of things but somewhere is going to rock pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You should start as rain. 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You should requalify that as 395 east and south of Pike You may start wet but you'll get your Christmas snow. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: You may start wet but you'll get your Christmas snow. Enjoy! Exactly. Yes, he will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You should start as rain. If the Gfs and your Pope are right. If the Euro is right wire to wire snow . I know where the house money is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If the Gfs and your Pope are right. If the Euro is right wire to wire snow . I know where the house money is I think you'll cash in pretty big tomorrow. I could see you perhaps near 8-10'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. Yes, he will do fine. It's hard to not feel good about your area out to here, especially N of Rt 2. Some of the models are hinting at some good fronto bands out this way, just don't want to get into the poor snow growth baking powder but for now rates look to rip for a while. I am thinking you score a little better qpf but we end with similar total. MPM and Hubba might do slightly better totals wise due to el. but it's academic at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: It's hard to not feel good about your area out to here, especially N of Rt 2. Some of the models are hinting at some good fronto bands out this way, just don't want to get into the poor snow growth baking powder but for now rates look to rip for a while. I am thinking you score a little better qpf but we end with similar total. MPM and Hubba might do slightly better totals wise due to el. but it's academic at that point. there will be no poor snowgrowth with this...with the exception of the unlucky bastards who are on the totally warm side of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I think you'll cash in pretty big tomorrow. I could see you perhaps near 8-10'' I have me at 5.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This has an 05 sting jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think you'll cash in pretty big tomorrow. I could see you perhaps near 8-10'' What do the soundings show for dxr at 7am? It looked snowy last I looked this morning but 18z runs made me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What do the soundings show for dxr at 7am? It looked snowy last I looked this morning but 18z runs made me nervous. Juast looked at some bufkit soundings for Waterbury and the NAM/GFS were definitely warm there at least. But I think they could be pretty close to the far western extent of that warmth so DXR *could* be fine. In fact, it's not out of the possibility that DXR is just far enough west of that warmth to where they get into the sick banding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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