codfishsnowman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 it would be the perfect grinch set up with 33-35f pouring rain tomorrow....might as well have it be 55f nary a trace yesterday too and end of week missing se would be the perfect trifecta FU balls cold in between lol too....that is guaranteed.....that is as Grinch as Grinch could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: it would be the perfect grinch set up with 33-35f pouring rain tomorrow....might as well have it be 55f nary a trace yesterday too and end of week missing se would be the perfect trifecta FU balls cold in between lol too....that is guaranteed.....that is as Grinch as Grinch could be Where do you see that for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Where do you see that for your area? tomorrow's set up is crazy precarious for just enough warm air to infiltrate this part of DV....it could be heavy snow baf but pouring cold rain/cat paws here I am not interested in a slushy inch at the end, just like some south easterners were not interested in that yesterday the big ccb will likely be just e/ne of here etc 2006 and 2010 each had events like this if we get a tick se or a more dynamic system things may be different but those were strong west trends last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: tomorrow's set up is crazy precarious for just enough warm air to infiltrate this part of DV....it could be heavy snow baf but pouring cold rain/cat paws here I am not interested in a slushy inch at the end, just like some south easterners were not interested in that yesterday the big ccb will likely be just e/ne of here etc 2006 and 2010 each had events like this if we get a tick se or a more dynamic system things may be different but those were strong west trends last night i rhink you mean tomorrow nught and Monday. GYX calling for 5-9 in the Pit2 p/c. we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Besides the obvious issues with a tucked in track and warmth... that's also a pretty ugly mid level low track. Everything is well northwest so that will introduce some dry slot issues and snow growth issues as well for a period of time. Not a classic nuking with the mid level lows closing off overhead. I'd take the under for most areas. I don't hate my earlier snowfall forecast but would probably move things northwest a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Besides the obvious issues with a tucked in track and warmth... that's also a pretty ugly mid level low track. Everything is well northwest so that will introduce some dry slot issues and snow growth issues as well for a period of time. Not a classic nuking with the mid level lows closing off overhead. I'd take the under for most areas. I don't hate my earlier snowfall forecast but would probably move things northwest a touch. Oh well...some nice snow falling on Xmas morning is the take away...better than nothing. I’ll take a couple inches and run for a white holiday. Don’t need 6+ to make it pretty. Thanks for the insight...seems to be trending in a negative direction unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Besides the obvious issues with a tucked in track and warmth... that's also a pretty ugly mid level low track. Everything is well northwest so that will introduce some dry slot issues and snow growth issues as well for a period of time. Not a classic nuking with the mid level lows closing off overhead. I'd take the under for most areas. I don't hate my earlier snowfall forecast but would probably move things northwest a touch. Meaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 He’s assusming the Euro is wrong . Basically discounting it and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s assusming the Euro is wrong . Basically discounting it and Ukie. No... all of what I discussed is shown in the Euro. I don't just plug in model snowfall forecasts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I didn't think the Ukie was anything great south of pike either. Anyways, hoping for 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s assusming the Euro is wrong . Basically discounting it and Ukie. I just don't know if he means lesser totals south and east, and greater totals north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Besides the obvious issues with a tucked in track and warmth... that's also a pretty ugly mid level low track. Everything is well northwest so that will introduce some dry slot issues and snow growth issues as well for a period of time. Not a classic nuking with the mid level lows closing off overhead. I'd take the under for most areas. I don't hate my earlier snowfall forecast but would probably move things northwest a touch. Thanks for the explanation, Ryan What is your best guess for mid level low track across new england, if you dont mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Take em down. Hopefully this ends up so far west we are spared much of anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s assusming the Euro is wrong . Basically discounting it and Ukie. Eh... it doesn’t look great... anymore West ticks and you have problems too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: No... all of what I discussed is shown in the Euro. I don't just plug in model snowfall forecasts lol Another nickle/dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Eh... it doesn’t look great... anymore West ticks and you have problems too There is no west trends unless you are using the Gfs. Enjoy 2-4” out your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Eh... it doesn’t look great... anymore West ticks and you have problems too That’s the euro verbatim. GFS/GEFS has mostly rain up to ORH and KPSM and all of CT save the extreme northwest part of the state. I’m leaning heavily towards GFS right now. I don’t like the H500 look at all, and the teleconnections support a warm solution with a late coastal developer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That’s the euro verbatim. GFS/GEFS has mostly rain up to ORH and KPSM and all of CT save the extreme northwest part of the state. I’m leaning heavily towards GFS right now. I don’t like the H500 look at all, and the teleconnections support a warm solution with a late coastal developer. Think we might taint all the way to GC? I'm thinking not, but the trend is not our friend. Also, I can't snow if it's raining in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 So a late grinch rainer lol Looked like snow to me in ASH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Let’s see what 12z shows..but trends are heading in the wrong direction at the moment. A couple hours from now it could trend back the other way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Anyone basing this on the Gfs Needs to look at themselves in the mirror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That’s the euro verbatim. GFS/GEFS has mostly rain up to ORH and KPSM and all of CT save the extreme northwest part of the state. I’m leaning heavily towards GFS right now. I don’t like the H500 look at all, and the teleconnections support a warm solution with a late coastal developer. Huh? Taken verbatim the GFS is not mostly rain for all of CT. Looks like mainly snow here in Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is no west trends unless you are using the Gfs. Enjoy 2-4” out your way Why must you always do this with every system? There have been West trends..System is more tucked and the shortwave has been getting sharper with the last few runs..thus bringing it more West. Maybe that changes at 12z?? Or maybe it goes to full on Rainer for most?? Sure it would be disappointing if that happens..but it happens. You have to use /analyze all guidance Kevin...if you are to be objective. That’s why most of us are here...to know the real story..not some fantasy idea of what we want and hope things to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone basing this on the Gfs Needs to look at themselves in the mirror Stop. You may need a weenie tag underneath the Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 NAM looks like it has both the primary and secondary marginally deeper at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is no west trends unless you are using the Gfs. Enjoy 2-4” out your way 2-4 flakes? Sure. Look at the gfs... it keeps the primary stronger and the development is becoming later and later on the secondary. That is a warm trend... no debating that. Maybe it reverses today... but the trend has been warmer for a couple cycles now. As has been stated, this is thread the needle. Looks like we might get wet this time... how far inland that gets.. who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 2-4 flakes? Sure. Look at the gfs... it keeps the primary stronger and the development is becoming later and later on the secondary. That is a warm trend... no debating that. Maybe it reverses today... but the trend has been warmer for a couple cycles now. As has been stated, this is thread the needle. Looks like we might get wet this time... how far inland that gets.. who knows Who would use the Gfs for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Stop. You may need a weenie tag underneath the Christmas tree. Why did it take until THIS christmas to award him with one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 NAM really blows it up, but usually not a good thing to have the 850 low over Keene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Huh? Taken verbatim the GFS is not mostly rain for all of CT. Looks like mainly snow here in Hartford. He's still on Long Island climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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