FRWEATHA Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I posted this in the NYC forum but this is pretty close system setup to the 12/15/89 bust we had. I think it busted up in SNE too...badly in eastern areas and good for western people. I don't remember what happened here but aren't forecasting tools much better in 2017 vs 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s not so much how far west is the low as the fact that so far 0z delays the dynamics such that the snow thump is less maximized. The temperature profile is a direct result of the dynamics but many weenies are ignoring that fact. The low is a touch west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The low is a touch west. But that doesn’t matter really. The later dynamics make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: But that doesn’t matter really. The later dynamics make a big difference. I disagree that the track doesn't matter....east winds penetrate further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What town man Old Lyme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree that the track doesn't matter....east winds penetrate further inland. Who gives a sh*t. What made Xmas good in prior runs was that big thump from the deepening low. This time I see a system that winds up 3 hours later at a time too late for our latitude to maximize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 With 46*F sst, this change from yesterday's 00z to today's 12z matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Who gives a sh*t. What made Xmas good in prior runs was that big thump from the deepening low. This time I see a system that winds up 3 hours later at a time too late for us ur latitude to maximize. The ocean. Sorry...the deepening rate and wind direction both matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Hopefully this is rain so Noyes and his BS model blend are wrong. I'm rooting for a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The ocean. Sorry...the deepening rate and wind direction both matter. I think the make or break in this system has always been dynamics. Without that it wasn’t going to do anything beyond mundane mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Oh btw GFS MEX gives BOS a 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully this is rain so Noyes and his BS model blend are wrong. I'm rooting for a cutter. His tweet today rubbed me the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: But that doesn’t matter really. The later dynamics make a big difference. Here's my issue with the GFS . 2 soundings 6 hrs apart. A 1006 low south of LI with snow in HFD then a 998 near the Cape and it's raining? How are there SE winds at the surface with a low near the cape? Transfer is complete and thats a thump sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Most of these solutions still hit the coast at the end. But this is def a N&W of 128 type look in terms of heaviest amounts. Could jack the Berks too on some of these IVT enhancement scenarios with the ratios they'll have. But Ray's hood to ORH could get a man-snow warning event...though it flashes to 20F powder at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ukie looks east...best snows are prob NE MA into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the make or break in this system has always been dynamics. Without that it wasn’t going to do anything beyond mundane mix. Well, the 00z GFS still drops 10" of snow...just further inland. I respect your point, but the wind direction is huge in our area in December....and a closer track adds more easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie looks east...best snows are prob NE MA into Maine. Color me surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of these solutions still hit the coast at the end. But this is def a N&W of 128 type look in terms of heaviest amounts. Could jack the Berks too on some of these IVT enhancement scenarios with the ratios they'll have. But Ray's hood to ORH could get a man-snow warning event...though it flashes to 20F powder at the end. I agree.....said the same thing a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: With 46*F sst, this change from yesterday's 00z to today's 12z matters. Man thats an awesome convergence line right over my weenie. I'd hit that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Color me surprised I'm relieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree.....said the same thing a bit ago. Don't you live NW of 128? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Man thats an awesome convergence line right over my weenie. I'd hit that That is one of my favorite tools, believe it or not...you can discern so much from wind direction....low level convergence, temp structure.....awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Don't you live NW of 128? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ray-snow numbers are sweet for you. KBED:8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Ray-snow numbers are sweet for you. KBED:8 Thanks. What is that, 8-10", or 6-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. What is that, 8-10", or 6-8"? 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 at ORH-BOS-OWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 32 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: Old Lyme. You will see enough for a white Christmas probably 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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