Greg Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man, cmc would hault santas reindeers here, then Tamarack can take his hunting rifles and kill them all, and not mistake them for a lady on a bicycle. CMC model usually runs warm but who knows now. This thing looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The trend will have us congrats Logan11 soon enough. Why not. We west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: The trend will have us congrats Logan11 soon enough. Why not. We west. Still a solid two days to shift it west some more. Who knows. Either way, 00z so far is a major bummer down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still a solid two days to shift it west some more. Who knows. Either way, 00z so far is a major bummer down this way Rain is the game. Might get 1-2 at the end. Time to pay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still a solid two days to shift it west some more. Who knows. Either way, 00z so far is a major bummer down this way It was always going to be a west and interior winter. Better luck next season, chin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It was always going to be a west and interior winter. Better luck next season, chin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Wow talk about a threading the needle event. Teleconnections are poor, but current model Consensus has a near perfect timing of a northern stream shortwave speeding along and hooking up with the baroclinic zone draped along the east coast at just the right time to give much of the area at least a moderate snowfall early Christmas Day. Despite the current guidance consensus I still see lots of downside risks with this setup snow wise. With the teleconnections as poor as they are and the northern Stream shortwave having trended progressively more intense and the BZ much closer to the coast, I think we have to now be careful that this doesn’t become a warm/wet outcome for the southern half of the forum...This is looking more and more to me like a late redeveloper with a strong primary...I could see the secondary not predominanting until East of Boston with this UL setup... Anyway, this is clearly a lot more interesting than I initially thought. The system moving through our area tomorrow is likely contributing to higher levels of uncertainty for this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I have a bad feeling about the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have a bad feeling about the EURO. Logan11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have a bad feeling about the EURO. Says the guy who is in both JP zones on the two 0Z runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The ensembles are definitely pointing towards the deeper shortwave/higher heights over the NW Atlantic solutions are the amped and farther west members. But it's subtle, so I think there are some wobbles left. I agree with your statement. we'll see by tommorow if these models can correct themselves better in this specific set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Says the guy who is in both JP zones on the two 0Z runs so far Wrong. Heaviest amounts are west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wrong. Heaviest amounts are west of me. Cry me a river in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Says the guy who is in both JP zones on the two 0Z runs so far But it seems they may be creeping west. That primary becoming a bigger player is killing this event. If that continues to strengthen over the next couple days, more people than just SE of Boston are going to have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cry me a river in this setup How is correcting you analogous to me crying a river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: But it seems they may be creeping west. That primary becoming a bigger player is killing this event. If that continues to strengthen over the next couple days, more people than just SE of Boston are going to have issues You can't acknowledge that without coming under siege by Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Regression is a b**ch. Enjoy. Just get Dendrite down to E MA. That should move the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How is correcting you analogous to me crying a river? Meteorology not modeology. Pretty green on the GFS, yea your thumping here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Hopefully after tomorrows storm the models can sort this crap out better. Too many players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 For what it's worth, models (including the 00z NAM and GFS) seem to be too deep with the shortwave dropping through the Pacific NW. This might be an over-correction NW on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meteorology not modeology. Pretty green on the GFS, yea your thumping here I understand that I'm thumping....but on the model, the heaviest is west of me. All I said. Not complaining...I'd take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can't acknowledge that without coming under siege by Steve. Be afraid be very afraid. Your area compared to TBlizz is like Dendrite to you. **** with a bombing system your area in that 0Z modeled setup is a lock. If that exact setup occurs and you rain with everything equal I will eat my words. GFS thermals, oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just get Dendrite down to E MA. That should move the jackpot. LOL, kidnapped and kept in my shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Be afraid be very afraid. Your area compared to TBlizz is like Dendrite to you. **** with a bombing system your area in that 0Z modeled setup is a lock. If that exact setup occurs and you rain with everything equal I will eat my words. GFS thermals, oh my Well, I'm not predicting a rain event here. Never said that...I'm going to update the blog after the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 How ****ed am I in coastal Connecticut? You all know more about how the dynamics work in this type event than I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I posted this in the NYC forum but this is pretty close system setup to the 12/15/89 bust we had. I think it busted up in SNE too...badly in eastern areas and good for western people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Akeem the African Dream said: How ****ed am I in coastal Connecticut? You all know more about how the dynamics work in this type event than I do What town man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: How ****ed am I in coastal Connecticut? You all know more about how the dynamics work in this type event than I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I posted this in the NYC forum but this is pretty close system setup to the 12/15/89 bust we had. I think it busted up in SNE too...badly in eastern areas and good for western people. Hope so 8 inches here in 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It’s not so much how far west is the low as the fact that so far 0z delays the dynamics such that the snow thump is less maximized. The temperature profile is a direct result of the dynamics but many weenies are ignoring that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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