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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

General 4-8 PYM-EWB north and west.

I've been thinking a simliar situation earlier.  I always said the Providence to Taunton to Kingston/Plymouth line would be the zone.  Like the 4-8" storm over a weak ago.  Generally 4-8 north of that and 2-4 south of that with the cape a coating to 2".  Like Will has said earlier, if this can get going and organized a little quicker then you can start adding a few more inches here and there.  If it comes any closer and later organization, then you start deducting a few inches here and there.

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I'm sorry some of you got ripped for it but it is true.  You can see this a little better on the GFS.  The Euro is not a lot but a little amped which would result in that model hugging just a little too much than the storm really would plus the dynamics are in play.  Besides, I would rather wait for the midnight models to come together a little better so we can see which way things really may be trending.

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4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I'm sorry some of you got ripped for it but it is true.  You can see this a little better on the GFS.  The Euro is not a lot but a little amped which would result in that model hugging just a little to much than the storm really would plus the dynamics.  Besides, I would rather wait for the midnight models to come together a little better so we can see which way things really may be trending.

I completely understand this could be better. Shift it another 25 miles east sand get it going further south and it could be better.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But 2 of our Mets argued otherwise.  It will be cold enough with a depicted dynamic storm.  

Correct. It’s nit a cold airmass, but that is a good high helping to funnel in colder and drier air. This isn’t an airmass that is homogeneous garbage where Boston is 38 and Lewiston is 33 and we are hoping for -5 850s to help us flip to snow. There is a reason why Scooter likes his high pressure. Sure at the immediate coast it could be tough but otherwise we flash to snow as is.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I completely understand this could be better. Shift it another 25 miles east sand get it going further south and it could be better.

Dynamics will be important too.  If we can intensify this about 6hr faster we are in a better spot.  As it stands it takes a bit to get going.  Just about as it gets to our latitude.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But 2 of our Mets argued otherwise.  It will be cold enough with a depicted dynamic storm.  

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Correct. It’s nit a cold airmass, but that is a good high helping to funnel in colder and drier air. This isn’t an airmass that is homogeneous garbage where Boston is 38 and Lewiston is 33 and we are hoping for -5 850s to help us flip to snow. There is a reason why Scooter likes his high pressure. Sure at the immediate coast it could be tough but otherwise we flash to snow as is.

Check the GFS forecast soundings. BOS goes from +1 snow to -6 snow in two hours Monday morning. We flash.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Correct. It’s nit a cold airmass, but that is a good high helping to funnel in colder and drier air. This isn’t an airmass that is homogeneous garbage where Boston is 38 and Lewiston is 33 and we are hoping for -5 850s to help us flip to snow. There is a reason why Scooter likes his high pressure. Sure at the immediate coast it could be tough but otherwise we flash to snow as is.

If I can't get me some qpf, give me some ratios.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Correct. It’s nit a cold airmass, but that is a good high helping to funnel in colder and drier air. This isn’t an airmass that is homogeneous garbage where Boston is 38 and Lewiston is 33 and we are hoping for -5 850s to help us flip to snow. There is a reason why Scooter likes his high pressure. Sure at the immediate coast it could be tough but otherwise we flash to snow as is.

I don't want to flash to snow.  I want to rip naked to dendrites on Christmas.

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