Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 If y'all are having trouble following my train of thought, I'm discussing what transpires tomorrow will have an impact on what occurs with this storm threat. If we see a weaker further east solution tomorrow as Will and other believe, we will have better antecedent conditions over a broader area than is currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That indeed is tomorrows storm. I'm talking about Christmas. However, how much BL level warmth has to truely get scoured out for the Christmas day storm can be debated somewhat for the areas I mentioned a few posts ago. Providence-Taunton-Far southshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Has Tip weighed in on any of these events? Have not seen him on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Has Tip weighed in on any of these events? Have not seen him on here. Past out behind the old shooting range at Ft Devens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Has Tip weighed in on any of these events? Have not seen him on here. Think he left the board for a disc golf online forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Tip is recuperating. He finally met the girl of his dreams and vomited on her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEM gets the low level center going a bit sooner so it's colder than the GFS. You also have a pretty favorable high position on this, so it's going to be hard to penetrate a lot of BL warmth far inland...if we get that dual low structure with one in NY and the other near the Cape, then you will have some problems along the immediate coast, but I'm not sure I would be worried about it more than 10-15 miles inland...and everything probably crashes E/SE throughout the event. you are my ampol friend so i'm counting on you:) am i ****ed in coastal connecticut with this? Old Lyme area exit 67-69 on I95. Maybe 5 miles inland from the coast and right on the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Akeem the African Dream said: you are my ampol friend so i'm counting on you:) am i ****ed in coastal connecticut with this? Old Lyme area exit 67-69 on I95. Maybe 5 miles inland from the coast and right on the river. You could always take a drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You could always take a drive. i wish this is the two days of the year that i have to sacrifice on a lock down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: you are my ampol friend so i'm counting on you:) am i ****ed in coastal connecticut with this? Old Lyme area exit 67-69 on I95. Maybe 5 miles inland from the coast and right on the river. May have some rain early on, but I think it will go to snow during the morning...it's still a bit uncertain on if it will be a couple inches or something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So what’s the current thinking on inland areas Xmas eve and Xmas day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Whats the latest on the ukie? meteocentre is clunky on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Boy a lot of us would approve of the BTV WRF. It's late in the range which makes me treat it like the NAM...but holy poundogenesis on Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If y'all are having trouble following my train of thought, I'm discussing what transpires tomorrow will have an impact on what occurs with this storm threat. If we see a weaker further east solution tomorrow as Will and other believe, we will have better antecedent conditions over a broader area than is currently shown. I'm not sure it ends up being a huge deal either way since the ML center track hasn't shifted much on guidance and that is the driver of the CAA....We do get cold air advection behind tomorrow night's system. It's not prolific, but it should bring lower TD air in and reset the table for snow. SE MA may have some problems early but as long as the low tracks out over like ACK or the outer cape or something, I'd expect a flash back to snow even there. As for whether the actual surface low tracks west of us or not tomorrow night...it could easily be the type of thing where a primary makes it into NY State so it's technically west but there is a "split" in the pressure field from CAD and another low center goes over the Cape, so now you have one east of us as well...we see this a lot in big CAD setups. Then for the interior, the max temps may occur when FROPA happens and they mix out. How much mid-level push behind tomorrow night's system occurs will be key...which is why I don't think the sfc low track matters too much. Hopefully we see a good push so the baroclinic zone is not right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: So what’s the current thinking on inland areas Xmas eve and Xmas day? Serious question? Do you even read these threads before you post this ****? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Serious question? Do you even read these threads before you post this ****? Weenies 'gon ween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Boy a lot of us would approve of the BTV WRF. It's late in the range which makes me treat it like the NAM...but holy poundogenesis on Christmas morning. Wait, they have a WRF model running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: May have some rain early on, but I think it will go to snow during the morning...it's still a bit uncertain on if it will be a couple inches or something more. whats a reasonable worst case scenario for me? all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Wait, they have a WRF model running? I find it to be decent at times. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: whats a reasonable worst case scenario for me? all rain? Depends on how we define reasonable...all rain is plausible, but I'd probably not forecast all rain there. But it definitely cannot be ruled out. A more likely "ugly" scenario is probably mostly rain but then ending as a burst of 1-2" of snow. The 12z models so far have been a bit more tucked in to the coast than I'd like for that area, but model guidance has been pretty volatile on this system, so not sure it means too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Depends on how we define reasonable...all rain is plausible, but I'd probably not forecast all rain there. But it definitely cannot be ruled out. A more likely "ugly" scenario is probably mostly rain but then ending as a burst of 1-2" of snow. The 12z models so far have been a bit more tucked in to the coast than I'd like for that area, but model guidance has been pretty volatile on this system, so not sure it means too much yet. cool my expectation is maybe for an inch of frozen slop and crusted over grass at the end of it all. still holding out hope and wishing for more honestly thats kind of a win. on my way to a high in the low 80's here today with my dew point hovering around 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Whats the latest on the ukie? meteocentre is clunky on mobile. They too busy answering weenie backyard questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: They too busy answering weenie backyard questions. It was a few inches, most further west but may not have been done at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's a congrats N & W of 1-90. What is west of I-90? 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whatever trees don’t come down in CT from the ice will come down Xmas morning on the Gfs Hasn't the ice situation been really tempered by the 12z models? They seem much less encouraging than what we had a 00z and 06z. Irrespective of that, I'm loving the GFS/CMC combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I find it to be decent at times. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Nice band of H7 fronto over S NH...a little south of here, but I’m supposed to be in Hooksett on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Well then it is either congrats Dendrite, or it shifts 25 miles and its Congrats chickens. Hardly paying attention to this storm, but should be a nice referesher on top of today. What a thick snow cover we will have when that arctic air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It was a few inches, most further west but may not have been done at 72 hours. Good look for CT then. Santa arrives in his sleigh finally. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What is west of I-90? the pacific ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, SJonesWX said: the pacific ocean very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That's a pretty nice looking s/w on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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