ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The very tail of the MAV and MET have ORH at 39 00z Friday evening. Put me down for way, way under. It was 9 years ago...and MAV has improved since then, but I still remember 42F for ORH in December 2008 ice storm with temps above freezing for the rest of the event after the first 6 hours. Always a good one for me to quote. Even the vaunted Euro tried to drive the sfc low into western MA for a couple runs inside of 36 hours. The WRF back then was by far the most superior in CAD...in fact, it was so "skilled" with it, it actually ended up slightly too cold...but even that model missed the duration of the CAd, it still tried to warm the interior eventually late in the event which ultimately failed in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Really? I'm surprised about that because all models really show a nasty look for Boston. Yes but the numbers may show 34 when reality is 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Really? I'm surprised about that because all models really show a nasty look for Boston. Assuming that look stays like it is on guidance through 12z and 00z tomorrow night....any met who doesn't slam the potential disaster near Boston for Friday evening and overnight is simply not looking at any model charts. Prob pure rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was 9 years ago...and MAV has improved since then, but I still remember 42F for ORH in December 2008 ice storm with temps above freezing for the rest of the event after the first 6 hours. Always a good one for me to quote. Even the vaunted Euro tried to drive the sfc low into western MA for a couple runs inside of 36 hours. The WRF back then was by far the most superior in CAD...in fact, it was so "skilled" with it, it actually ended up slightly too cold...but even that model missed the duration of the CAd, it still tried to warm the interior eventually late in the event which ultimately failed in reality. I'll say I take note when our massive model blends even show a cold tuck. You would think at this range that might be the sort of thing that gets smoothed out, but even the national blend of models shows a cold tuck into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 The cold tuck happens pretty quick Friday evening on the GFS...it's possible a place like BOS goes from still hanging on to light snow at 30-32F around 22-00z to brief IP to RA- at 33-34F and then very quickly flash freezes to 27F by 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 EURO is colder....gives me 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Then Christmas miracle ensues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro 2m temps in 3 hrs increments from 18z Friday to 6z Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Things looking good this morning. It's becoming apparent that being down in NW Mass will be a better spot than Pit2. GC through SVT/CNH/ME might do best with snow, but I think Dave to ORH and points NNE from there will 'win' in the icing department. I prefer the snow and power. 21.4/12, Pit1 14*, Pit2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The Swiss model is downright nasty for a lot of ern MA tomorrow night. Funny that I am actually referencing that, but it also makes sense in these setups. Something to watch. I feel like the classic N and W talk I am hearing this morning is probably not doing the BOS area enough justice. Could be nasty tomorrow night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Things looking good this morning. It's becoming apparent that being down in NW Mass will be a better spot than Pit2. GC through SVT/CNH/ME might do best with snow, but I think Dave to ORH and points NNE from there will 'win' in the icing department. I prefer the snow and power. 21.4/12, Pit1 14*, Pit2 Both places (pit 1&2)will be mainly snow imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Both places (pit 1&2)will be mainly snow imho. Perhaps--I think the snow is really going to align from GC up through Jeff. The warm air aloft will put a cap on GC, so I'm not sure if primarily snow will be the case. That said, I do think BOX's ice amounts in GC may be on the high side with more snow than their 'expected' map is showing. Northern ORH county though---watch out. Christmas looks to be a Ray - Pit2 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Perhaps--I think the snow is really going to align from GC up through Jeff. The warm air aloft will put a cap on GC, so I'm not sure if primarily snow will be the case. That said, I do think BOX's ice amounts in GC may be on the high side with more snow than their 'expected' map is showing. Northern ORH county though---watch out. Christmas looks to be a Ray - Pit2 special. I think you’re rue right about 12/22-23. Xmas looks better and better for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The Swiss model is downright nasty for a lot of ern MA tomorrow night. Funny that I am actually referencing that, but it also makes sense in these setups. Something to watch. I feel like the classic N and W talk I am hearing this morning is probably not doing the BOS area enough justice. Could be nasty tomorrow night into Saturday. It is the Super Swiss...so there's that. Towns like Bedford, and Burlington could be pretty nasty. Maybe the Blue Hills area? Does their elevation matter for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It is the Super Swiss...so there's that. Towns like Bedford, and Burlington could be pretty nasty. Maybe the Blue Hills area? Does their elevation matter for this? I think the low elevations have a bit of an advantage to stay sleet vs zr and higher ones definitely more dangerous. I expect mby to be disastrous once the snow is out and zr is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: I think the low elevations have a bit of an advantage to stay sleet vs zr and higher ones definitely more dangerous. I expect mby to be disastrous once the snow is out and zr is in. Actually local Mets here in CT are saying the valleys will be more prone to hold the cold longer here in CT. Don’t know how it will shake out, but that’s the pros take here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think the BOX ice totals might be conservative for areas of S ORH county into NE CT, we will see how the models trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It is the Super Swiss...so there's that. Towns like Bedford, and Burlington could be pretty nasty. Maybe the Blue Hills area? Does their elevation matter for this? Not really. It's a matter of the cstl front. If winds are east, even BLue Hill is above freezing. But thinking ahead...I'm all about the airlines at BOS. Rain vs freezing rain or freezing drizzle is a serious issue on such a busy travel time. We're already warning of potential issues. Better to be safe and plan ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Modfan said: I think the BOX ice totals might be conservative for areas of S ORH county into NE CT, we will see how the models trend today. They don’t understand CT climate and don’t spend any time on CT zones. Their primary focus is Eastern Mass. It’s why you are still seeing them forecast 40’s this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The swiss model? Shoots is shook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Actually local Mets here in CT are saying the valleys will be more prone to hold the cold longer here in CT. Don’t know how it will shake out, but that’s the pros take here?? Pretty much echoes my thoughts. The lower you are the deeper the cold by definition. So sleet vs zr is favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They don’t understand CT climate and don’t spend any time on CT zones. Their primary focus is Eastern Mass. It’s why you are still seeing them forecast 40’s this weekend That’s a damning statement. They may or may not be wrong but do you really think NWS BOX is ignoring CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wouldn't shock me if this system slipped a bit more east. The 0z GFS ensembles kinda leave that door open. Might be more snow and less ice for you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The swiss model? Shoots is shook I look at it on the weather.us site. It is an interesting model to peek at. Very high resolution, but not sure of the skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The swiss model? Shoots is shook It did real well in the recent snow event almost two weeks ago. Just guidance like anything else. It has the same idea as other guidance..just seems more realistic on temps. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s a damning statement. They may or may not be wrong but do you really think NWS BOX is ignoring CT? Who said ignore? They rarely , rarely mention anything about CT in any of their AFD’s or tweets. I read them all everyday. We aren’t one of their priorities and it’s quite evident. Quite frankly we shouldn’t be obviously with big population of BOS area, but we do still deserve more time spent than is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Hey guys...a travel related question. Do you think this will come in waves? I might have to travel from CON to Great Barrington. Not sure if I should go Friday afternoon or sometime on Saturday? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who said ignore? They rarely , rarely mention anything about CT in any of their AFD’s or tweets. I read them all everyday. We aren’t one of their priorities and it’s quite evident. Quite frankly we shouldn’t be obviously with big population of BOS area, but we do still deserve more time spent than is. They are trying to trade you to OKX for a 4th round pick and cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 No one is losing power, everybody relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: No one is losing power, everybody relax I could see isolated power outages due to cars hitting poles...that type of thing. I don't think it will be a huge tree damage event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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