ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is the next wave on Sat into Sun going to be ice? if so, then yea +0.5” qpf indeed. Later Sat could def still be ice...hard to say exactly where the 33F rain starts and the 31F ice starts...but I don't really see how it's going to warm above freezing over a chunk of the interior. At the very least the east slope of ORH hills/Berks, Middlesex county MA, Essex county, etc and the typical spots that collect the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: North of pike winter. How much snow do you have YTD as opposed to everyone South of I-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well you need to post the whole storm total I though the ice event is Fri overnight only per your boy Eric Fisher..is the follow up ice too for south of pike? Just asking cuz I been out of the loop on trends today, i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea I know. It looks wet/warm on Sat though or are we discounting gfs thermals by -10F? Very possible at least through the first half of the day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea I know. It looks wet/warm on Sat though or are we discounting gfs thermals by -10F? I dunno, It has Kevin at 35-36F at 15-18z Sat when a big slug of moisture has fallen that morning...I'd say based on the pressure pattern....take 'em down. Well down. Not sure about 10F down, but probably at least 5F down, and you can do the math what that means. We'll see as we get a bit closer, still need to make sure this doesn't trend back a touch stronger with primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I though the ice event is Fri overnight only per your boy Eric Fisher..is the follow up ice too for south of pike? Just asking cuz I been out of the loop on trends today, i guess. Friday looks cold enough for snow everywhere, except maybe very close to the Pike. But south of there it's not really saturated enough for snow anyway. So if it's ice, it's freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Very possible at least through the first half of the day Saturday. Up north, sure. I don’t see it along 84 in CT though, at first glance, throughout the day. I defer to the pros, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Very possible at least through the first half of the day Saturday. Someone in SE NH or N ORH county will prob be like 23F when the GFS has them at 34 at 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I lost power for two days in the October windstorm and took advantage of it to leave town and visit the folks. I want no part of that. It's crazy how much of a luxury having electricity is. Losing power in late December with the forecast of a very cold week to follow is much more problematic than a summer or October power outage. Luckily we have 2 wood stoves and plenty of snow to melt for water. I don't remember what the weather was like after the big 1998 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Up north, sure. I don’t see it along 84 in CT though, at first glance, throughout the day. I defer to the pros, however. The nam has those areas in the 20’s at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Someone in SE NH or N ORH county will prob be like 23F when the GFS has them at 34 at 12z Sat. @WxBlue marveling at yet another 2 m model bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The nam has those areas in the 20’s at that time Well, then we living dangerously. Thought the sat night wave is warm, even on euro, but if we take temps down....then prepare to stand next to your xmas tree with a candle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's actually a really nice look Friday for CNE on guidance. A really nice band of strong f-gen slices right through the heart of New England. It looks mainly WAA driven, with 40 knots isentropic lift through the low end of the DGZ. @dendrite should do well (of course), but forecast soundings have that slightly warmer than DGZ look that with salt nuclei usually ends up being perfect for high efficiency snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well, then we living dangerously. Thought the sat night wave is warm, even on euro, but if we take temps down....then prepare to stand next to your xmas tree with a candle. It will def be tougher to maintain below freezing at sfc the further southwest you go...so it's not wrong to be a bit skeptical in your location. The best cold drain is coming right down the coastal plain of Maine and NH...there will be some drain from the N in the valleys like CT River, but the best source of lower dews is prob more from the northeast airmass rather than the one more due north or northwest. Still though, even a chunk of CT could be in for ZR on Saturday, so it's worth watching closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well, then we living dangerously. Thought the sat night wave is warm, even on euro, but if we take temps down....then prepare to stand next to your xmas tree with a lighter. Ryan at 6:20 on the news said it rains in the afternoon in CT. So there’s one pro’s take on it. If modeling tonight and tomorrow comes in even colder...then we may have a bigger problem than we currently have at this moment in CT. Let’s see what 0z shows and tomorrow’s runs show, before we start to think lots of freezing rain for interior CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: @WxBlue marveling at yet another 2 m model bust. Fully expecting us to stay in low 20s for a while. Should be a good one, especially with me staying at a family's place in middle of MHT/CON/DAW triangle for this one. I'm still amazed how badly models handled Dec 9/10 event thermally. CAD effect around here is pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 1998 ice storm had temperatures in the mid-teens, at least at Sugarloaf. This storm looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 21 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Losing power in late December with the forecast of a very cold week to follow is much more problematic than a summer or October power outage. Luckily we have 2 wood stoves and plenty of snow to melt for water. I don't remember what the weather was like after the big 1998 ice storm. It was cold making things more miserable for folks without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: The 1998 ice storm had temperatures in the mid-teens, at least at Sugarloaf. This storm looks warmer. That event had a huge gradient between N. Maine and NYC. N.Maine: 20"+ at temps singles to low teen MaineMtns: 4-8" SN/IP, temps low-mid 20s Foothills/C. Maine: 1-3" ZR or IP/ZR, temps 26-32, worst damage was here, though foothills escaped with mostly IP S. Maine: 30-34, lighter ice, little damage SNE: 35-45 with 1"+ RA NYC: 50s-60s with 1/2-1" RA Temps afterword were slightly AN, IIRC, though in md-Jan that's still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Losing power in late December with the forecast of a very cold week to follow is much more problematic than a summer or October power outage. Luckily we have 2 wood stoves and plenty of snow to melt for water. I don't remember what the weather was like after the big 1998 ice storm. I got a generator after the Octobomb, lost power for 6 days, have a new woodstove too but still not rooting for ice. It'l be colder than it was after the Oct storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Ya 1998 was a once in 500 year event for sure!! That was truly Epic..truly!! This is not that as everybody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Extensive ice storm induced power outages followed by a snowstorm would be interesting. Where is Tip? This is his type of winter drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Fully expecting us to stay in low 20s for a while. Should be a good one, especially with me staying at a family's place in middle of MHT/CON/DAW triangle for this one. I'm still amazed how badly models handled Dec 9/10 event thermally. CAD effect around here is pretty epic. Same mechanism as NC CAD, but we're closer to that forcing. Plus you get a closer source region of cold, and in situ bonus as precip falls into the initially dry air mass and it wet bulbs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm not sure how true it is, but I heard our WCM recounting how the ice storm warning criteria was developed for New England in the wake of 1998. Which is kind of why the 1/2 inch number was picked. Damage was so extreme, that we ended up with a slightly inflated threshold for significant damage from ice. I know I feel like criteria should be lowered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I mean pretty simply the term means not geostrophic (which is a balance of Corilois and pressure gradient forces). So ageostrophic flow is what makes the wind deviate from that balance. Things like friction, isallobaric forces, etc. It's what helps form the coastal front. There is less friction over what (closer to geostrophic balance) vs. friction over land, creating convergence. Now that friction is always present over land, so what we are talking about in this event is something along the lines of isallobaric changes in the flow. When you pop that mesolow the pressures fall, and the isallobaric wind will be perpendicular to those lines of equal pressure tendency. So you can see how it is that mesolow that really helps to keep those winds inland more northerly to northeasterly. LOL, I didn't want to throw his head off...but that is a good technical explanation. Force balance is key. The force is strong with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: LOL, I didn't want to throw his head off...but that is a good technical explanation. Force balance is key. The force is strong with this one. I felt like a deep dive on ageostrophy tonight. Sure the Midwest has their blizzards and tornadoes, but ageostrophic drain and baggy pressure signatures are where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I felt like a deep dive on ageostrophy tonight. Sure the Midwest has their blizzards and tornadoes, but ageostrophic drain and baggy pressure signatures are where it's at. I mean just drop that subject at a bar. Glasses drop and shatter, heads turn, and women throw themselves on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Lol...hey we have our Blizzards here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan at 6:20 on the news said it rains in the afternoon in CT. So there’s one pro’s take on it. If modeling tonight and tomorrow comes in even colder...then we may have a bigger problem than we currently have at this moment in CT. Let’s see what 0z shows and tomorrow’s runs show, before we start to think lots of freezing rain for interior CT. OK, yea that’s my take on it. I even think the best forcing overnight Fri is north of us too. So maybe .1-.25 is frozen, ie sleet or freezing drizzle/showers. Then Sat morning we start to warm before the heavier wave approaches. now, if that is colder than modeled, lookout. But atm, we not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya 1998 was a once in 500 year event for sure!! That was truly Epic..truly!! This is not that as everybody knows. I was at Sugarloaf for two 500 year events. One was the 1998 ice storm and the other the April 2007 Nor' Easter with 100" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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