Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He had drug addicts rummaging through his neighborhood while the power was out. Sounds like a great time. I admit the damage is cool, but I lost power for 3 hrs this summer and I’m alll set with 3 days or more out. Not with a 5yr old and a 7 month old. I’ll take the 37F rain. 10 days without power with that storm was enough to last a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I will give Kevin credit. His house could blow away and as long as everyone is safe, he will be thrilled. It was creepy how much he enjoyed no power after the Octobomb. The only saving grace for me is that if I have an extended outage it will happen at the start of a week that I don’t have to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: No idea, but I think the model is almost 1km resolution. It does a good job of showing the terrain differences in temps around here. It looks like it’s going to be a few degrees too cold for 00z though. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: heh Phew. Kevin power stays on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Phew. Kevin power stays on. Oh how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Phew. Kevin power stays on. Yuck, sub freezing for Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Phew. Kevin power stays on. He’s BDL for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Oh how we pray I Would pay money to see that solution happen LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Yuck, sub freezing for Enfield. Saving grace foryou is spotty precip shield, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Saving grace foryou is spotty precip shield, Connecticut's death valley, where precipitation comes to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: BTV actually started years ago making maps for our region, states, and CWAs, and that got the ball rolling to do this stuff nationally. But yeah, because there are so many grid points we have to clip the domain somewhere. Since BTV goes all the way into NY, they probably clip theirs pretty tight to their eastern border. When we forecast we can do it one of two ways. Either in ISC (inter-site coordination) mode or not. If we don't, you see the data change over the entire domain. If we toggle ISC mode on it almost puts a mask over the data outside our forecast area. So the forecast data I changed outside my borders is still there, but now instead of seeing that I see BOX, BTV, ALY, and CAR's forecast. So I can see where we do and do not match up. If there is a big difference, that's usually when we try and collaborate compromises or argue why others should change to match you. Good stuff. Thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The snow can help let the cold stay refrigerated as it advects in. The reason why you say it lasts longer than expected, is due to ageostrophic flow. It’s a fancy way if saying the winds in our case tend to stay more nrly....especially inland. This obviously means the cold is advected south. Models do a tough job handling that feature and will usually veer winds too quickly to a more east to northwest direction. In reality the low will have a tough time barging into ththe cold air and winds will stay locked more from the north. I could go on but that’s the simple version. I mean pretty simply the term means not geostrophic (which is a balance of Corilois and pressure gradient forces). So ageostrophic flow is what makes the wind deviate from that balance. Things like friction, isallobaric forces, etc. It's what helps form the coastal front. There is less friction over what (closer to geostrophic balance) vs. friction over land, creating convergence. Now that friction is always present over land, so what we are talking about in this event is something along the lines of isallobaric changes in the flow. When you pop that mesolow the pressures fall, and the isallobaric wind will be perpendicular to those lines of equal pressure tendency. So you can see how it is that mesolow that really helps to keep those winds inland more northerly to northeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He had drug addicts rummaging through his neighborhood while the power was out. Sounds like a great time. I admit the damage is cool, but I lost power for 3 hrs this summer and I’m alll set with 3 days or more out. Not with a 5yr old and a 7 month old. I’ll take the 37F rain. I lost power for two days in the October windstorm and took advantage of it to leave town and visit the folks. I want no part of that. It's crazy how much of a luxury having electricity is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Is there such a thing as Ice storm watch? Should fly tomorrow AM if there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He had drug addicts rummaging through his neighborhood while the power was out. Sounds like a great time. I admit the damage is cool, but I lost power for 3 hrs this summer and I’m alll set with 3 days or more out. Not with a 5yr old and a 7 month old. I’ll take the 37F rain. I’ve got news for you.. they are rummaging thru all of our neighborhoods on this board on a weekly basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Porch Pirates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I Would pay money to see that solution happen LOL. That Solutuon would be opposite of how it would happen. Hills would stay < 32. Valley right at 32. Lived here long enough to recognize that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Saving grace foryou is spotty precip shield, Huh?CT is .50 + qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Does anyone have a SNE 2008 map showing how much ice accrued during that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there such a thing as Ice storm watch? Should fly tomorrow AM if there is There is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The QPS Field on the 3K NAM seem to shredded and way off compared to the other models. I do think we need to be wary of QPF. There are some hints at a break or drying of RH aloft. So the models might be spitting out too much early Saturday. Beyond the NAM 3km range, but models also love to overdo QPF in the dry slot behind the mid level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Huh?CT is .50 + qpf Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Which model? 12z GFS and GGEM. Euro might have been a bit less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That Solutuon would be opposite of how it would happen. Hills would stay < 32. Valley right at 32. Lived here long enough to recognize that I know you’re very excited about this..I get it, and understand it too. But, I personally don’t want to lose power a day befor the holiday. Nothing fun about that situation at all imo. Also, there are some caveats with this as OceanState has explained...so might just want to pump the brakes a bit and see what future modeling shows...before getting hopes up too high for ice storm warnings. This could be a flop too..don’t know?? Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z GFS and GGEM. Euro might have been a bit less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: North of pike winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 That's only through 12z Sat...there's more later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Is the next wave on Sat into Sun going to be ice? if so, then yea +0.5” qpf indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well you need to post the whole storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That's only through 12z Sat...there's more later on. Yea I know. It looks wet/warm on Sat though or are we discounting gfs thermals by -10F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.