Dec 22-23 snow/ice threat

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Dinner in a 35 degree house. Nice. 

not here, we prepared, propane heat, generator

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

not here, we prepared, propane heat, generator

I’d be disappointed missing snow. Ice, have it. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’d be disappointed missing snow. Ice, have it. 

Exactly, keep that crap, useless as Zima

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

'73 was actually a pretty strong coastal. This won't be like that.

That wound up as a cutter for the east half of NNE, with heavy rains throughout Maine (places like RUM and CAR, and everything between) and taint/RA at Pinkham Notch and much of the rest of eastern NH.

[Modfan]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly, keep that crap, useless as Zima

Or Tequiza

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3k NAM,  FZRN very hard toss or pass

Oh yes yes yes please 

[powderfreak]

BTV and surrounding areas NWS forecast:

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yes yes yes please 

cept its wrong, qpf is only like .25, probably showing sleet snow ice mix total

[HIPPYVALLEY]

35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hard pass is right. Check the QPF, it only has 0.12 for BDL I think but still spits out 1.2" ice?? Something wrong with an algorithm.

 The QPS Field on the 3K NAM  seem to shredded and way off compared to the other models.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can keep the ice. Have fun heating up Perdue chicken nuggets while I enjoy my roast. 

This.

Ill gladly take living in the tropics for this one. I’ll take having heat and food over opening gifts in a 37 degree House.

Many people rooting this on will do a 180 in record time when they lose power, I can promise you that.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV and surrounding areas NWS forecast:

Lines up with the GYX map

 

[OceanStWx]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

bet thats a frozen mixture of snow sleet ice, tossed

I'm guessing it is just a quirk of the ice accumulation model. 

I know we had ones in the past that with certain wind speeds the ice accumulation would equal the QPF. That seems to be what is happening here, though I can't seem to find documentation as to what the 3km NAM is using for ice accumulation these days.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lines up with the GYX map

It better! That's because they're stealing our forecast to create their map.

The other, more controversial, way to do it is to create a map with forecast data that you created in your domain that's in another forecast area. Essentially what you are forecasting for someone else's area of responsibility. It happens, but it's usually not taken too kindly to.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It better! That's because they're stealing our forecast to create their map.

The other, more controversial, way to do it is to create a map with forecast data that you created in your domain that's in another forecast area. Essentially what you are forecasting for someone else's area of responsibility. It happens, but it's usually not taken too kindly to.

Even the WFO's steal snow

[moneypitmike]

38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Forecast soundings now don't have a real deep surface cold layer, so that would argue no, but that could definitely change as we near the event too. Sleet just tends to be such a narrow zone and rarely long duration. It seems to more end up crappy snow mixed with freezing rain.

Thanks.  Not sure if I'll be up here in Maine or Mass for this.

[HoarfrostHubb]

How is that Swiss model for ice?  I see it on weather.us but rarely see it mentioned?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks.  Not sure if I'll be up here in Maine or Mass for this.

Decisions, Decisions.

[SJonesWX]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How is that Swiss model for ice?  I see it on weather.us but rarely see it mentioned?

i heard that it's full of holes.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lines up with the GYX map

Yeah I like the BTV maps that show the surrounding CWA forecasts as well... you could see the GYX and BTV one's blended nicely... same with BOX.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Even the WFO's steal snow

You can see the GYX forecast domain from this map. This is pulling in the forecast data from CAR, BTV, ALY, and BOX. 

But when I forecast, I can see what my neighbors are doing within this domain. So I can see what BOX is doing for BOS, but not ORH. Likewise I can see what BTV is doing for St. J but not BTV. We see all of CAR because we are state liaison, so we occasionally may have to brief people for the whole state and want to see what CAR is up to. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I like the BTV maps that show the surrounding CWA forecasts as well... you could see the GYX and BTV one's blended nicely... same with BOX.

It's shockingly well collaborated. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You can see the GYX forecast domain from this map. This is pulling in the forecast data from CAR, BTV, ALY, and BOX. 

But when I forecast, I can see what my neighbors are doing within this domain. So I can see what BOX is doing for BOS, but not ORH. Likewise I can see what BTV is doing for St. J but not BTV. We see all of CAR because we are state liaison, so we occasionally may have to brief people for the whole state and want to see what CAR is up to. 

That gives a lot better picture of what goes on internally, Nice.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You can see the GYX forecast domain from this map. This is pulling in the forecast data from CAR, BTV, ALY, and BOX. 

But when I forecast, I can see what my neighbors are doing within this domain. So I can see what BOX is doing for BOS, but not ORH. Likewise I can see what BTV is doing for St. J but not BTV. We see all of CAR because we are state liaison, so we occasionally may have to brief people for the whole state and want to see what CAR is up to. 

That's odd that you can't see their full forecasts... so BTV probably has something similar where it can maybe see to LCI? 

I just figured when you make a snow map, you make your CWA snow map and then see if it jives with the neighbors and if any small tweaks are needed to make it more seamless.

I'm a big fan of those snow forecasts that BTV will issue that show the entire northeast, with all the NWS offices from like PHL northward.  But those maps do show when there are some large office differences.

[Sugarloaf1989]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This.

Ill gladly take living in the tropics for this one. I’ll take having heat and food over opening gifts in a 37 degree House.

Many people rooting this on will do a 180 in record time when they lose power, I can promise you that.

Yup, only fools rush in.

[rimetree]

The ground here is still mostly snow-covered, albeit not much depth after the past two days. With another 4 inches on top, does that play into potential of keeping it all frozen here in SE NH? It seems the cold tends to last here longer than expected despite being a little more than 3 miles to the ocean.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's odd that you can't see their full forecasts... so BTV probably has something similar where it can maybe see to LCI? 

I just figured when you make a snow map, you make your CWA snow map and then see if it jives with the neighbors and if any small tweaks are needed to make it more seamless.

I'm a big fan of those snow forecasts that BTV will issue that show the entire northeast, with all the NWS offices from like PHL northward.  But those maps do show when there are some large office differences.

BTV actually started years ago making maps for our region, states, and CWAs, and that got the ball rolling to do this stuff nationally.

But yeah, because there are so many grid points we have to clip the domain somewhere. Since BTV goes all the way into NY, they probably clip theirs pretty tight to their eastern border. 

When we forecast we can do it one of two ways. Either in ISC (inter-site coordination) mode or not. If we don't, you see the data change over the entire domain. If we toggle ISC mode on it almost puts a mask over the data outside our forecast area. So the forecast data I changed outside my borders is still there, but now instead of seeing that I see BOX, BTV, ALY, and CAR's forecast. So I can see where we do and do not match up. If there is a big difference, that's usually when we try and collaborate compromises or argue why others should change to match you.

[dendrite]

49 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This.

Ill gladly take living in the tropics for this one. I’ll take having heat and food over opening gifts in a 37 degree House.

Many people rooting this on will do a 180 in record time when they lose power, I can promise you that.

I will give Kevin credit. His house could blow away and as long as everyone is safe, he will be thrilled. It was creepy how much he enjoyed no power after the Octobomb. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

I will give Kevin credit. His house could blow away and as long as everyone is safe, he will be thrilled. It was creepy how much he enjoyed no power after the Octobomb. 

He had drug addicts rummaging through his neighborhood while the power was out. Sounds like a great time. I admit the damage is cool, but I lost power for 3 hrs this summer and I’m alll set with 3 days or more out. Not with a 5yr old and a 7 month old. I’ll take the 37F rain. 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, rimetree said:

The ground here is still mostly snow-covered, albeit not much depth after the past two days. With another 4 inches on top, does that play into potential of keeping it all frozen here in SE NH? It seems the cold tends to last here longer than expected despite being a little more than 3 miles to the ocean.

The snow can help let the cold stay refrigerated as it advects in. The reason why you say it lasts longer  than expected, is due to ageostrophic flow. It’s a fancy way if saying the winds in our case tend to stay more nrly....especially inland. This obviously means the cold is advected south. Models do a tough job handling that feature and will usually veer winds too quickly to a more east to northwest direction. In reality the low will have a tough time barging into ththe cold air and winds will stay locked more from the north. I could go on but that’s the simple version.

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How is that Swiss model for ice?  I see it on weather.us but rarely see it mentioned?

No idea, but I think the model is almost 1km resolution. It does a good job of showing the terrain differences in temps around here. It looks like it’s going to be a few degrees too cold for 00z though.