ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah you'll be seeing big time problems once you get to a half inch of ice. That's when they started in the 2008 ice storm roughly...or even a bit before that around 3/8ths. It's just it kept getting worse and worse...most people were without power by 11pm that night and we prob got another half inch of ice after that at minimum....maybe 3/4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if that SW decides to dig in the midwest, nothing will stop it....but hopefully the confluence provide just enough inhibition. Oh come on, the -epo will stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Minenfeld! said: What does the flatness of the wave refer to and why does it matter? flatter waves keep inflow out of the cold NE on their right side, Deep lows have strong SE winds on the right side pulling up warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Minenfeld! said: What does the flatness of the wave refer to and why does it matter? Since we do not have Atl blocking, there is nothing to stop the wave from amplifying out west, but if it remains "flatter", then jt won't gain as much atitude, which will keep it colder as it stays just south and east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh come on, the -epo will stop it. It helps...we were both guilty of communicating poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: My NWS p/c has rain and 51F for Saturday, which is above freezing the last time I checked. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the high temp number, since that will be fairly brief. Most folks should pay more attention to the hourly temps, though BOX does have you getting to 49. 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: A half inch of ice isn't that big a deal really. Once you push beyond 3/4" then you have to start worrying. Most of the weak limbs were thinned out in 2008 and Snowtober in 2011. Plus the power companies have been way more proactive in trimming which would help. At least in this area. Half inch is a big deal. Most power companies start having problems with the lines at 0.3"-0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It helps...we were both guilty of communicating poorly. That was as sarcastic I could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That was as sarcastic I could be. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said: What does the flatness of the wave refer to and why does it matter? Flat just describes the height/jet stream orientation across North America. The more this trends towards zonal (west to east) east of the EPO ridge the better. If the flow is amplified that means a big dump of cold east of the EPO ridge and west of us, and a counterbalancing response of warm air surging north ahead the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Since we do not have Atl blocking, there is nothing to stop the wave from amplifying out west, but if it remains "flatter", then jt won't gain as much atitude, which will keep it colder as it stays just south and east of us. So, deeper pulls in more warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Minenfeld! said: So, deeper pulls in more warm air? If its close enough, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I wouldn't pay too much attention to the high temp number, since that will be fairly brief. Most folks should pay more attention to the hourly temps, though BOX does have you getting to 49. Half inch is a big deal. Most power companies start having problems with the lines at 0.3"-0.4" Right now they say rain after 10pm on Friday night for Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 12z GFS actually has the ageostrophic flow at 1000 mb slightly W of N through most of the event. It's not until 21z Saturday that vectors become east. So verbatim I wouldn't be significantly increasing temps until that 18-21z window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Right now they say rain after 10pm on Friday night for Enfield. See my post right after you. In fact if you take a look at the NAM 3km (caveats I know) 2 m temps you can see a likely scenario for Friday night. Temps at BDL just sort of bounce around from 29 to 30 as the mesolow pulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Actually even the often maligned GFS shows a similar evolution. It brings BDL up to 36 at 03z Saturday, but at 06z it pops a closed MSLP contour over FMH and the temp falls to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Actually even the often maligned GFS shows a similar evolution. It brings BDL up to 36 at 03z Saturday, but at 06z it pops a closed MSLP contour over FMH and the temp falls to 33. 3k NAM, FZRN very hard toss or pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Actually even the often maligned GFS shows a similar evolution. It brings BDL up to 36 at 03z Saturday, but at 06z it pops a closed MSLP contour over FMH and the temp falls to 33. Over central MA and prob E MA more than 5-8 miles off the coast I'd slice like 5-8F off the guidance temps for Friday night overnight. You can prob extend that into N RI and parts of N CT and SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 3k NAM, FZRN very hard toss or pass Hard pass is right. Check the QPF, it only has 0.12 for BDL I think but still spits out 1.2" ice?? Something wrong with an algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Let’s do this folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Over central MA and prob E MA more than 5-8 miles off the coast I'd slice like 5-8F off the guidance temps for Friday night overnight. You can prob extend that into N RI and parts of N CT and SE NH. At 03z Saturday BDL has a 15 knot ageostrophic wind from 350 degrees. That oscillates around 10-15 knots through at least 15z. Explain to me the mechanism to get them into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 3k NAM, FZRN very hard toss or pass Yikes, toss please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 3k NAM, FZRN very hard toss or pass Ouch. Valleys get punished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Might this set-up be more of a sleet-fest for NW areas rather than ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: At 03z Saturday BDL has a 15 knot ageostrophic wind from 350 degrees. That oscillates around 10-15 knots through at least 15z. Explain to me the mechanism to get them into the 40s. the Rev would say , stick to your gut. Meteorology not modelology. Its nice, even as an amateur knowing the models bias's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 You can keep the ice. Have fun heating up Perdue chicken nuggets while I enjoy my roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Might this set-up be more of a sleet-fest for NW areas rather than ice? Forecast soundings now don't have a real deep surface cold layer, so that would argue no, but that could definitely change as we near the event too. Sleet just tends to be such a narrow zone and rarely long duration. It seems to more end up crappy snow mixed with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hard pass is right. Check the QPF, it only has 0.12 for BDL I think but still spits out 1.2" ice?? Something wrong with an algorithm. bet thats a frozen mixture of snow sleet ice, tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can keep the ice. Have fun heating up Perdue chicken nuggets while I enjoy my roast. Nobody owns a grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nobody owns a grill Dinner in a 35 degree house. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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