ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Agree. I guess the one help is that we don't have 15-20kt winds advecting lower Td air in...will be just like N-NNW winds under 5 kts. But with temps in the 20s, that's still rather efficient. Yeah and the precip rates won't be overly heavy. But even a 5-10 knot drain is going to be pretty effective for a while slowing down the latent heat release. Esp since these are nice arctic dewpoints draining down the coast of ME/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoe456 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just got upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning here in Coastal Cumberland County, Maine. I'm about 1.5 miles from the ocean, 11 miles north of Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks like RGEM is back to blasting the WF through tomorrow aftn. That looks suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Pushing mid 50s sat night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Check out the HREF... that's a mean 32F isotherm valid Saturday afternoon. Pretty nasty sig for E Mass. Prett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Our Plymouth weenie WRF last night is just as cold as the previous run. Upper 20s through 00z Sun for most of NH and MA. I really don't trust just how cold it is, but we'll see how it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Take them up .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 945 am Update: Have made some significant changes to forecast. Have expanded the winter storm warnings further north across most of northern NH and further north and east into Maine. With the combination of a very strong baroclinic zone setting up south and west of our area, and some added lift being supplied by an approaching short wave should suffice in some healthy QPF. Expecting a decent swath of heavy snow to spread across the warning areas this late this morning and afternoon. The very cold deep arctic dome over our area will continue through the night. Lowered max temps today. Models hint and depict the cold drainage of air from the north with the nosing of the high with classic cold air damming to continue for the next 24 hours. For the near term today the focus was on increasing the snowfall amounts due to 20:1 snowfall ratios expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Our Plymouth weenie WRF last night is just as cold as the previous run. Upper 20s through 00z Sun for most of NH and MA. I really don't trust just how cold it is, but we'll see how it verifies. That’s cold down here. Interesting forecast ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like RGEM is back to blasting the WF through tomorrow aftn. That looks suspicious. Yeah it looks pretty normal until 21z Saturday....then it tries to track low pressure over the Litchfield hills and ORH hills...not happening james. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Happy holidays everyone.......I got an update for MHT by 9pm, they are claiming 8-10" from this event...as that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Fascinating to see such a large spread in 2m temp. Of course, lower ones will win out, but it'll be interesting to see which one is the closest to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Our Plymouth weenie WRF last night is just as cold as the previous run. Upper 20s through 00z Sun for most of NH and MA. I really don't trust just how cold it is, but we'll see how it verifies. It was way too cold for an event here a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it looks pretty normal until 21z Saturday....then it tries to track low pressure over the Litchfield hills and ORH hills...not happening james. Yeah I'll call BS on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, 512high said: Happy holidays everyone.......I got an update for MHT by 9pm, they are claiming 8-10" from this event...as that possible? Go read back about 5 post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s cold down here. Interesting forecast ahead. Like I said last night...I find it hard to believe BOS/PVD will be colder than 1P1/LCI. I don't think I've ever seen that happen in a CAD situation...meslow/cold tuck or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Go read back about 5 post. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Our Plymouth weenie WRF last night is just as cold as the previous run. Upper 20s through 00z Sun for most of NH and MA. I really don't trust just how cold it is, but we'll see how it verifies. This met still buys it. This is bad to HVN east and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It was way too cold for an event here a couple weeks ago. Yeah I think it needs some work. Chris said it trended way too warm on the last CAD event so it seems to be all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I think it needs some work. Chris said it trended way too warm on the last CAD event so it seems to be all over the place. It busted by like 12F too cold around Hartford. I don't recall how many runs prior to the start of the event it was though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It busted by like 12F too cold around Hartford. I don't recall how many runs prior to the start of the event it was though. DIT will not recover if it busts like that again. Thats a long , a very long hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The official forecast for PSM has us going to 37F tomorrow before noon on a light north wind? I have events tomorrow afternoon that I'd rather not cancel, so would welcome that change, but it seems questionable based on the feedback in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DIT will not recover if it busts like that again. Thats a long , a very long hangover. I fear he is setting himself up for a very big let down. But maybe it gets worse than we think??? Hard to tell right now. Ryan isn't too impressed for it getting bad in most of CT...I think he's right. How long does that cold air hang on...is the million dollar question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I fear he is setting himself up for a very big let down. But maybe it gets worse than we think??? Hard to tell right now. Ryan isn't too impressed for it getting bad in most of CT...I think he's right. How long does that cold air hang on...is the million dollar question? This Met agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 hours ago, amc said: Looking like GYX is backing way down on ice totals, now only a 1/10th rather then the .3 they had last night. We're not (don't tell the mid shift). Totals should be "fixed" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Check out the HREF... that's a mean 32F isotherm valid Saturday afternoon. Pretty nasty sig for E Mass. Prett That's pretty meh for GC. Congrats Ray, Brian and Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, rimetree said: The official forecast for PSM has us going to 37F tomorrow before noon on a light north wind? I have events tomorrow afternoon that I'd rather not cancel, so would welcome that change, but it seems questionable based on the feedback in this thread. I actually would buy you more climbing above freezing tonight only to tuck back below early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Our local WRF starts the cold tuck around 03z tonight, complete by 12z in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: That's pretty meh for GC. Congrats Ray, Brian and Scott. Doesnt GC cover a lot of real estate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Doesnt GC cover a lot of real estate? I define GC as the furthest west zones in BOX's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I do think we may have overshot snow amounts for today. Near a foot seems like a tough ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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