Lava Rock Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Whineminster said: seriously though....think of all the icing events you have experienced....any of them that are worth their weight all happened at night. pun intended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was speaking more in my hood near BOS...but yeah I think Ryan was saying even srn CT could get icy. Just not sold on Kevin's generator type stuff. Yeah. I just don't see this happening. People are setting themselves up for failure if they are expecting to see heavy, ice laden branches, heavy power lines and cars filled with presents sliding around in the mall parking lots taking out little old ladies shuffling around with walkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Yeah. I just don't see this happening. People are setting themselves up for failure if they are expecting to see heavy, ice laden branches, heavy power lines and cars filled with presents sliding around in the mall parking lots taking out little old ladies shuffling around with walkers. Bingo..the only time you see that is if it's been really cold in the days prior and you have fresh cold funneling in keeping temps well below freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Yeah. I just don't see this happening. People are setting themselves up for failure if they are expecting to see heavy, ice laden branches, heavy power lines and cars filled with presents sliding around in the mall parking lots taking out little old ladies shuffling around with walkers. You have a brutal imagination....Poor old ladies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Much better post. I wasnt worried either but rgem is troubling and both Willie amd Scoots saying ice down to the coast. I’ll take their word over yours, no offense. Devastating...no offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The issue is, you dont need alot of ice in CT on a holiday weekend to disrupt things. People will be out and about driving like maniacs doing their last minute shopping with fire trucks and ambulances on chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 As of now, I think we are fine here in inland CT. Some Ice accretion sure...but nothing major or devastating is my feeling. I know Kevin is as giddy as a kid on Xmas morning for this Ice event...but I feel it's not going to be a major deal in CT. Today precip is going to be light and spotty...and overnight it stops and picks up again tomorrow morning...temps should be on the rise by then. But, like all systems..there will be surprises somewhere... Our school district is half day anyway due to the last day before the holiday break...so no worries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ryan worries over every nam run online. Confident on air, though, which confuses us here. For NE mass. He clearly stated it is meh for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 56 minutes ago, Whineminster said: seriously though....think of all the icing events you have experienced....any of them that are worth their weight all happened at night. It's been almost 20 years, but if memory serves, the most rapid accretion came 6A-noon on Jan 8. (Though there was continuous accretion from sundown on the 7th thru early afternoon on the 9th.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: As of now, I think we are fine here in inland CT. Some Ice accretion sure...but nothing major or devastating is my feeling. I know Kevin is as giddy as a kid on Xmas morning for this Ice event...but I feel it's not going to be a major deal in CT. Today precip is going to be light and spotty...and overnight it stops and picks up again tomorrow morning...temps should be on the rise by then. But, like all systems..there will be surprises somewhere... Our school district is half day anyway due to the last day before the holiday break...so no worries here. My kids have a half day too. I will say that Kevin has a better chance than we do. I don't think it goes above freezing at his house from November through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 NAm tucks that meso low in closer to BOS. Not sure that is right, but verbatim it may help the city, but drive the cold well south into CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, JC-CT said: My kids have a half day too. I will say that Kevin has a better chance than we do. I don't think it goes above freezing at his house from November through March. Lol...it's much colder in Tolland than most places :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Mr. ORH Wxman has stopped posting about this event, so I think it's dropped off the radar as far as having any significant impact. But we still take, better than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAm tucks that meso low in closer to BOS. Not sure that is right, but verbatim it may help the city, but drive the cold well south into CT and RI. Tuck it and take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Mr. ORH Wxman has stopped posting about this event, so I think it's dropped off the radar as far as having any significant impact. But we still take, better than rain. Or he's busy working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Or he's busy working. Dudes had like 5 nogrums already. He’s not thinking clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Or he's busy working. More to life then AMWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Or he's busy working. This goes back to like last night bro. 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dudes had like 5 nogrums already. He’s not thinking clearly lol I wish. My home made Mulled Wine will be drank later though, hopefully as I'm plowing my driveway of a fresh 4-inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Whineminster said: This goes back to like last night bro. lol I wish. My home made Mulled Wine will be drank later though, hopefully as I'm plowing my driveway of a fresh 4-inches. He was conversing with Ryan at like midnight. Drink up. Besides, who said damaging life changing ice? It's an interesting wintry event. These meso scale things are always tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Lol...looks like I logged on just in time. Apparently if I don't post the first 2 hours of the morning, the event is over. I don't see any major changes...it's going to be a really nasty icing event for the interior...I still can't tell you if it's going to be a couple tenths of accretion or a half inch, but I'd watch very closely. I'm really concerned about Saturday morning into midday when it appears a good slug of rainfall will be moving in...and it may be of the freezing variety for a pretty large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Lol...looks like I logged on just in time. Apparently if I don't post the first 2 hours of the morning, the event is over. I don't see any major changes...it's going to be a really nasty icing event for the interior...I still can't tell you if it's going to be a couple tenths of accretion or a half inch, but I'd watch very closely. I'm really concerned about Saturday morning into midday when it appears a good slug of rainfall will be moving in...and it may be of the freezing variety for a pretty large area. Some of those WRF runs (ARW and NMM are wicked nasty). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol...looks like I logged on just in time. Apparently if I don't post the first 2 hours of the morning, the event is over. I don't see any major changes...it's going to be a really nasty icing event for the interior...I still can't tell you if it's going to be a couple tenths of accretion or a half inch, but I'd watch very closely. I'm really concerned about Saturday morning into midday when it appears a good slug of rainfall will be moving in...and it may be of the freezing variety for a pretty large area. I don’t even read your posts for meteorological information anymore, I just look at your post count. Save time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some of those WRF runs (ARW and NMM are wicked nasty). The RGEM gave ORH about 8 tenths of QPF falling as ZR. I think that's prob overdone but even if it's only 60% of that, that is going to be a problem. That would prob mean at least 3/8ths of accretion and you'll start seeing some widespread power outages once you hit that mark. The power outages seem to go almost exponential over about 3 tenths of accretion. You're mostly OK at a quarter inch, you start seeing them at 3 tenths, by 3/8ths they are becoming widespread, and by a half inch it's starting to fee like the 19th century. But even metrowest Boston (and possible Boston itself) could see pretty decent accretion. That 128 to 495 belt could get shellacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of those WRF runs (ARW and NMM are wicked nasty). We wicked wicken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 thank god that Mr. ORH is back.. how do the short term models (HRRR) handle these kind of icing situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The RGEM gave ORH about 8 tenths of QPF falling as ZR. I think that's prob overdone but even if it's only 60% of that, that is going to be a problem. That would prob mean at least 3/8ths of accretion and you'll start seeing some widespread power outages once you hit that mark. The power outages seem to go almost exponential over about 3 tenths of accretion. You're mostly OK at a quarter inch, you start seeing them at 3 tenths, by 3/8ths they are becoming widespread, and by a half inch it's starting to fee like the 19th century. But even metrowest Boston (and possible Boston itself) could see pretty decent accretion. That 128 to 495 belt could get shellacked. How much did it give Union to BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The RGEM gave ORH about 8 tenths of QPF falling as ZR. I think that's prob overdone but even if it's only 60% of that, that is going to be a problem. That would prob mean at least 3/8ths of accretion and you'll start seeing some widespread power outages once you hit that mark. The power outages seem to go almost exponential over about 3 tenths of accretion. You're mostly OK at a quarter inch, you start seeing them at 3 tenths, by 3/8ths they are becoming widespread, and by a half inch it's starting to fee like the 19th century. But even metrowest Boston (and possible Boston itself) could see pretty decent accretion. That 128 to 495 belt could get shellacked. Agree. I guess the one help is that we don't have 15-20kt winds advecting lower Td air in...will be just like N-NNW winds under 5 kts. But with temps in the 20s, that's still rather efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much did it give Union to BDL? Maybe about half as much? Just west of HFD though it had a lot. That was the 06z run though...the 12z is coming in now...and the models may still be too warm. It's really hard for them to be too cold on these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks pretty nasty to about NCT and would be conerned in death valley down to middletown, possibly further. Rte 8 valley looks very dicey too. If you live in like Columbia or places that just dont cad well, then it shouldnt be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 rgem coming in colder thru sat am. It tourches sat night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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