CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Yeah not much going on in this thread, disappointing. 3 inches of snow then an 1/8" of ice...over like 24 hours....wooooo Waaaaah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Yeah not much going on in this thread, disappointing. 3 inches of snow then an 1/8" of ice...over like 24 hours....wooooo Vs 58 rain as was thought a few days ago. That’s the point to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Warning is up for SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 When dudes in places get .50-.75 Ice accretion and are unwrapping presents in winter coats and hats by candlelight.. don’t say you weren’t warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When dudes in places get .50-.75 Ice accretion and are unwrapping presents in winter coats and hats by candlelight.. don’t say you weren’t warned Yeah, in N ORH county and north and the Berks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Will, Thanks for the post. The goalposts regarding the amount of Qpf falling as accretion is still relatively wide especially considering the difference in damage between .2and.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 That is a massive cold tuck on the 18z NAM....biggest sig yet. Then on Saturday night it tries to track the primary over NW CT and ORH...I think I'll take the "under" on that one...meaning south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z NAM stays below freezing the whole event in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The GFS still seems to drop a lot of rain. Got to watch those surface temps What's 10 degrees among friends? GFS bufkit has CON at 35 by 15z Saturday, the NAM on the other had 25 at the same time. Sign me up for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gonna be a lot of issues . You warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WintersComing said: 18z NAM stays below freezing the whole event in SNE Not really...verbatim anyway...I mean for like 85-90% of the event it does, but it tries at the last minute to track the primary over the interior shooting temps well into the 40s and 50s for a brief time. I am quite skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be a lot of issues . You warned There might be like 50 customers without power on a certain hill in Tolland, CT. The rest of us will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Solid snow event north of Pike on the NAM pre-ice storm. Wouldn't surprise me to see 7-8" reports out of S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is a massive cold tuck on the 18z NAM....biggest sig yet. Then on Saturday night it tries to track the primary over NW CT and ORH...I think I'll take the "under" on that one...meaning south. I think it'll be tough to get above freezing through most of Saturday down to atleast 495. Maybe squeak to freezing in the evening, if at all. Gonna come down to how much qpf falls for icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Don't think we even sniff 30°F throughout the event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Solid snow event north of Pike on the NAM pre-ice storm. Wouldn't surprise me to see 7-8" reports out of S NH. Same. Trouble is going to be sharp southern cut off. Dendrite might grab 7" and ASH stuck at 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 WWA's for many and Winter Storm Watches for some in GYX land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z 3km NAM really keeps the low lvl cold locked in For 21z Sat: On this run it takes until ~0z for cold air to get scoured out ..idk, I'm finding a hard time believing I will sniff 32 until post fropa / CAA kicks in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm not sure why they have different advisories up for WMA and CMA. It makes sense CT is separate as they are advising less ice, but the wording/timing is the same for GC and CMA. 20* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Good snow growth it looks like for a while Sat afternoon...could be a little fluff bomb ongoing for a time in CNE before the ice moves in. Even down here we may get a brief burst for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Interesting dichotomy between the NAM and GFS for snowfall Friday. The GFS has a pretty uniform forecast temp profile near -8C, definitely good enough for dendrites in our part of the world. But the NAM actually has an unsaturated DGZ, and a big warm nose around 700 mb of -3C. That is leading to a difference in snow ratios, 15:1 for the GFS, less than 10:1 for the NAM (bulk of the accumulation is around 6:1). That's why the snow forecasts between the two models are a range of warning to sub-advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not really...verbatim anyway...I mean for like 85-90% of the event it does, but it tries at the last minute to track the primary over the interior shooting temps well into the 40s and 50s for a brief time. I am quite skeptical of that. Ya sorry. Just saw that in the later frames that were taking a bit to load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good snow growth it looks like for a while Sat afternoon...could be a little fluff bomb ongoing for a time in CNE before the ice moves in. Even down here we may get a brief burst for a few hours. I'm concerned we end up with warning snows for S NH Friday, then warning snows for the mountains Saturday. Messaging is starting to get difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Maybe you can give SNH back to BOX and let them deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, JC-CT said: There might be like 50 customers without power on a certain hill in Tolland, CT. The rest of us will be fine. Enjoy dark and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Maybe you can give SNH back to BOX and let them deal with it. People ask for that all the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, JC-CT said: There might be like 50 customers without power on a certain hill in Tolland, CT. The rest of us will be fine. Or maybe one house in Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Only hope for the ice fans in CT is round 2. Round 1 looks weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be a lot of issues . You warned Do you really think so or are you embellishing? Just wondering if I should stock up on some water and gas for the generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 How come York cty and southern NH get WSW, but north of there only WWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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