ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Time to start a thread for this one. The high in Quebec is trending more stout and the wave is trending flatter...that equals a more wintry solution than the torching cutter being shown just a few model cycles ago. There could be a significant icing scenario for interior southern New England as well...most guidance shows a cold tuck behind a mesolow that develops near the Cape and travels into the Gulf of Maine while at the same time, more moisture begins to stream in from the southwest and mid-level temps creep above zero....see GFS for below example. Note the streamlines over eastern SNE come from SE NH and S ME....that is classic icing signal...ignore the verbatim temps, they'd likely be much colder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Quite possible this could remain all frozen up here before its all said and done trending, A Christmas miracle possibly indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Would this be ice storm warning type stuff? Plus no one warms above freezing thruout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Would this be ice storm warning type stuff? A little early to say, but there is potential....you gotta be concerned about the meso low and the high staying its ground longer than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Hoping for brief icing to rain, bad timing for this to happen with heavy holiday travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 crap, trying to head north on Friday, looks like will have to put that off till midday Saturday when it's start to mostly change to Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: crap, trying to head north looks like will have to put that off till midday Saturday when it's start to mostly change to Rain. No gaurantee That happens near mid day with this set up. This is not ur retreating high to the east where low levels are gauranteed To go above 32. That meso Low and even orientation of the high looks very interesting. In nashua Im a bit concerned but even inside of 495 could be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 How far south is the icing threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Was just thinking this exact same thing....??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 whatever this mess is will be the main show then nothing til closer to New Years, at this point I will root for a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The Naugatuck valley does fairly ‘well’ in icing events as cold air drains along and down rte 8. But I’m elevated at 600ft and to the west some, maybe I can escape the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 meh. Just let the cold rain make its entrance, and then move on to a my brown Christmas as planned. Seems like good potential up north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Right to the coast near HVN in this setup. Big big ice signal for most in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The Naugatuck valley does fairly ‘well’ in icing events as cold air drains along and down rte 8. But I’m elevated at 600ft and to the west some, maybe I can escape the worst. My location is like moths to a flame for freezing rain, but hoping for the best. My Dad's 83 and no heat can become problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right to the coast near HVN in this setup. Big big ice signal for most in SNE You may score some ice... but I’ll take the way under on ice right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I guess I'm lucky...i don't have to hang on every model cycle...it would take the atmosphere rearranging itself to give plymouth and CC anything white or frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You may score some ice... but I’ll take the way under on ice right to the coast. See Wills post from other thread about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro looks warmer than even the gfs with the llc. Could be wrong, TT euro not that easy to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right to the coast near HVN in this setup. Big big ice signal for most in SNE Don't think this is a big south coast icing setup....since the main source of drain is from Maine and NH...so prob MA and N CT. But there is absolutely a siggy icing threat. We'll also have to watch the QPF too...the CAD is going to hold strong for a long time, but precip could remain light for much of the time. While that will make for efficient glazing, it could keep amounts under a half inch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Don't think this is a big south coast icing setup....since the main source of drain is from Maine and NH...so prob MA and N CT. But there is absolutely a siggy icing threat. We'll also have to watch the QPF too...the CAD is going to hold strong for a long time, but precip could remain light for much of the time. While that will make for efficient glazing, it could keep amounts under a half inch too. Yeah I didn’t mean SE Mass like the Cape , but TAN could ice for a time . Reminds me of the 1973 icestorm setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 But it’s deff showing the cad east of the wct hills into saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But it’s deff showing the cad east of the wct hills into saturday morning. Yeah on the Euro setup, theres no chance a place like ORH or even the 495 belt sniffs freezing by Sat morning. If the raw model output is that cold, you can prob take 'em down another 5F minimum in reality. Sometimes 10F. That would prob extend into a chunk of CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The mobile layout on weather.us is annoying. Not easy to scan through a run and look at different parameters. Too time consuming but euro is free so I guess I should eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 That's a very wintry set-up for CNE/NNE. At least several inches of snow before changing over to several hours of freezing rain for southern half of NH. 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The mobile layout on weather.us is annoying. Not easy to scan through a run and look at different parameters. Too time consuming but euro is free so I guess I should eat it. It's pretty bad on laptop too. Just taking forever to change the display and it freezes sometimes trying to change the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah on the Euro setup, theres no chance a place like ORH or even the 495 belt sniffs freezing by Sat morning. If the raw model output is that cold, you can prob take 'em down another 5F minimum in reality. Sometimes 10F. That would prob extend into a chunk of CT too. That would even be tough at Logan for a time too. Esp with those N vectors some models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Is this mostly an overnight type deal or more like Friday late afternoon impact...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Yukon Cornelius said: Is this mostly an overnight type deal or more like Friday late afternoon impact...? Impacts start during the afternoon on Friday, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That would even be tough at Logan for a time too. Esp with those N vectors some models are showing. Huge cold tuck sig on all the guidance...could be really nasty Fri night. BOS may score a couple inches of snow before anything changes too...the guidance is starting to show that classic NE to SW temp gradient in the mid-levels that we see on Quebec highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah on this setup, theres no chance a place like ORH or even the 495 belt sniffs freezing by Sat morning. If the raw model output is that cold, you can prob take 'em down another 5F minimum in reality. Sometimes 10F. That would prob extend into a chunk of CT too. The significant QPF Waits till pm on most guidance, Thou right? So ice fans need to see that cold really hold till 0z Sunday Or longer. How does that occur, stronger high, another meso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No gaurantee That happens near mid day with this set up. This is not ur retreating high to the east where low levels are gauranteed To go above 32. That meso Low and even orientation of the high looks very interesting. In nashua Im a bit concerned but even inside of 495 could be in trouble the good news is I'm heading to eastern Canada, up 1-95 so hopefully the closer to the ME coast the better, then when I get to Canada it should be mostly rain in NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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