PhineasC Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 2:56 AM, leesburg 04 said: Nam juiced up a little more Expand Cut the precip in half because models are too wet, cut it in half again because it's the NAM, cut it in half a third time because the pattern is La Nina and there is no moisture in the southern stream, and give me a billion dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:09 AM, PhineasC said: Cut the precip in half because models are too wet, cut it in half again because it's the NAM, cut it in half a third time because the pattern is La Nina and there is no moisture in the southern stream, and give me a billion dollars. Expand Merry Christmas to you dolt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS shows you why our area hates NS Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:44 AM, nj2va said: GFS shows you why our area hates NS Miller Bs. Expand Yea we're not in a good spot for them. But every year people here lament that fact. I don't get it. We're simply too far south to typically get those. Fact of life. If you live in the plains you can't get noreasters but I doubt they bring that up as often as we do the miller b thing. It's a well established fact so why do we get worked up every time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:55 AM, psuhoffman said: Yea we're not in a good spot for them. But every year people here lament that fact. I don't get it. We're simply too far south to typically get those. Fact of life. If you live in the plains you can't get noreasters but I doubt they bring that up as often as we do the miller b thing. It's a well established fact so why do we get worked up every time? Expand For sure. But are you new here? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:55 AM, psuhoffman said: Yea we're not in a good spot for them. But every year people here lament that fact. I don't get it. We're simply too far south to typically get those. Fact of life. If you live in the plains you can't get noreasters but I doubt they bring that up as often as we do the miller b thing. It's a well established fact so why do we get worked up every time? Expand I doubt people in the plains are teased with noreasters very often... We are teased by Miller B's constantly and we usually miss them by a very small margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Man look at how the coastal has all the dynamics. more energy should transfer sooner I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:58 AM, PhineasC said: I doubt people in the plains are teased with noreasters very often... We are teased by Miller B's constantly and we usually miss them by a very small margin. Expand I see your point but I guess I simply go with climo so when I see that setup I don't expect much. Then I'm not disappointed. But it seems even when one works out, like Jan 2005 and we get 3-6" which is stellar for a pure northern stream miller b, people moaned mostly because NYC to Boston got 10-20". You can't win. I also don't think its typically as close as we think. I grew up just outside of philly in NJ and they typically screwed us over too. More often they end up being NYC north. Yes a few notable ones were close and sharp cutoffs where Philly got significant snow and we didn't like dec 2000 and Boxing Day but more often they don't do that much better. Philly is a bit south for most and we're literally on the southern most edge of where it's even possible to get significant influence from them. It's a once in a long while type thing. They are mostly New England storms. So write them off and be pleasantly surprised when one hits instead of constantly frustrated by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro bumped precip. Surface sucks but looks like a period of non accum snow for much of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It doesn't make a lot of aesthetic sense. I can't lift 100lbs but the weather patterns don't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 2:40 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Good to see more precip on the guidance as we close in. Expand noticed that on the NAM'rs. Mood flakes is my bar for the win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I still think we have a chance for flakes out here. LWX Thinks so as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:58 AM, PhineasC said: I doubt people in the plains are teased with noreasters very often... We are teased by Miller B's constantly and we usually miss them by a very small margin. Expand Yeah thats the difference. And we do catch the SW side sometimes. I have no stats to back it up but I would guess in our subforum NE MD and DE have done better overall with getting in on some Miller B action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 2:40 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Good to see more precip on the guidance as we close in. Expand Too bad temps suck lol. Some should see flakes in the air at least. Considering what we could have been looking at for Xmas day per some of the whacky guidance a week ago, its a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 What a cool track! The strengthening low moves north through the mountains and western PA. How often have we seen this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro seems to think map-child and little Hoffman wake up to a dusting Xmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'll be in central PA XMas morning. Should be a pretty morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 6:24 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Are we cooked down here for flakes? Expand I think along the M-D line and NE MD/DE has the best chance of something. Maybe down to I95 for mood flakes. Doubt much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 6:10 PM, WxUSAF said: Euro seems to think map-child and little Hoffman wake up to a dusting Xmas morning. Expand That'll include me too...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The NAM's are slowly reeling me back in... slowly. Getting closer and closer to buying into the fact that flakes may fly Christmas Day... Or it could be 35 and sprinkling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Man, looking at some of the short-range models on TT, looking like N MD could really sneak into a surprise. All of the short-range models suggest a squall going through at the end, wouldn't shock me if it dumps up there for a little on Christmas Day. Not to mention the fact that most of these models suggest it will be all snow up there. Hmmmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 8:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Man, looking at some of the short-range models on TT, looking like N MD could really sneak into a surprise. All of the short-range models suggest a squall going through at the end, wouldn't shock me if it dumps up there for a little on Christmas Day. Not to mention the fact that most of these models suggest it will be all snow up there. Hmmmmmm.... Expand Funny I was just looking at them and thinking the exact same thing. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 This is the kind of event that will trend wetter in the final 36 hours. Although my typing that seems to effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 8:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Man, looking at some of the short-range models on TT, looking like N MD could really sneak into a surprise. All of the short-range models suggest a squall going through at the end, wouldn't shock me if it dumps up there for a little on Christmas Day. Not to mention the fact that most of these models suggest it will be all snow up there. Hmmmmmm.... Expand That's a gravity wave. Wouldn't surprise me places like Allentown and Albany cash in with a fast 1" - 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 1:28 AM, Eskimo Joe said: That's a gravity wave. Wouldn't surprise me places like Allentown and Albany cash in with a fast 1" - 2" Expand Going up to Scranton tomorrow morning for the holiday. Looks like 2-3” there, should be interesting. Hoping when I come back to NoVA Thursday, we are locked for our next snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 RGEM is showing a few pop up snow showers through my area. No way in hell is good enough to tell us where those happen. But it has been solid this year. Even with lake effect streamers. I will take some flurries on Christmas day and be ecstatic in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Is this thing dead yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Your up by Towson right? If so it's not dead for you. No one is gonna get bombed with this. But up your way and towards Westminster could steal an inch. No one knows who's gonna get it. But I wouldnt give up on this one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 9:20 PM, losetoa6 said: Euro sure is windy up here tomorrow ..gusts to 50 and temps only near 30 ...nasty to the max man. 985 mb low over east Maine and a 1032 high to our sw...nice gradient. If only we had a region wide 2-4" to go with it...Christmas day ground blizzards would be running rampant..lol Expand I hope that it looks like the frozen tundra out there tomorrow morning. Enjoy it. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I’ve got sneet 37/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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