AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Only in NE. A lp develops over N Carolina at hour 69 only to scoot out to sea leaving us with some rain showers. But NE does get some snow out of this run. NAM's long range bias... energy transfers to coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam did look much better at h5 but longgg range nam . I'll stay up for Gfs though just for kicks H5 does look better this run. Maybe a trend developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nam looks pretty much like the euro. Unless something changes here pretty quick, we don't have much of a chance on this one unfortunately. We neee development to start south of us and that trend is going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nam looks pretty much like the euro. Unless something changes here pretty quick, we don't have much of a chance on this one unfortunately. We neee development to start south of us and that trend is going the wrong way. Still plenty of time imho but that's not saying it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 some improvement on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ink some improvement on the gfs Maybe for some...I went from near 1 inch to zero..not sure I see it being better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Maybe for some...I went from near 1 inch to zero..not sure I see it being better Better looking vort. But net result no better. No worries. 12 more gfs runs left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Maybe for some...I went from near 1 inch to zero..not sure I see it being better Shortwave has been ticking N every run today it seems. Not enough dig for us but SNE is pretty happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I guess tomorrow busts warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS still gives those of us to the west a couple of hours of flakes overnight Christmas eve. Would be nice to wake up to a half inch of white on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Last 6 runs have given at minimum... flakes for some areas of the forum. I personally think this will give my yard flakes . Dependant on which model you use we are still 72 - 78 hours out . I am way further west brother. Not expecting anything major. But a half inch isnt ridiculous out here for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 NAM west but flatter. Was thinking 6z would trend wetter than 12z and 18z warmer or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 surprised this is wet, 850 temps above 0c in DC and Balt on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The 12Z 3K has a pretty nice slug of moisture in NE West VA at 60 hours. I would think some of that would make it over the mountains. But that is trying to extrapolate the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 lol gfs. west track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol gfs. west track? Almanac scores a half win...storm did cut inland, lol But at the very least it won't be 60s or 50s, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Almanac scores a half win...storm did cut inland, lol But at the very least it won't be 60s or 50s, right? Looks like 60s / 70s on Saturday. Models weren't off on the intensity, just the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol gfs. west track? dude you know what this means right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS and CMC are very similar with a Christmas jumper right over our area. The dreaded stealing of our moisture. Maybe if it happens soon enough you guys in the NE part of the subforum could see something out of it. But as modeled I am screwed out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Next week will completely fall apart? Spray some Fabreeze it's about to stink up in this here joint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 00z RGEM ensemble. Not encouraging. Or just setting up a miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The good news is the euro now has some light precip in MD on xmas eve. The bad news is like the gfs...it shifted NW so it would prob be light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: I know we are getting close in for ensembles but Eps does look better for Sunday night . 1/2" mean just over into PA. .1" south of i70 I know everyone is focused on next weekend, but I feel there is still a chance for a little something on Xmas. Possibly another short lead time deal coming (like last week). Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I know everyone is focused on next weekend, but I feel there is still a chance for a little something on Xmas. Possibly another short lead time deal coming (like last week). Fingers crossed.One threat at a time is my motto. However, we will really need the title of this thread to come true at this point imho. That 850 low in the GL is the real killer. Surface is cooling but just above is toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 One threat at a time is my motto. However, we will really need the title of this thread to come true at this point imho. That 850 low in the GL is the real killer. Surface is cooling but just above is toasty.It is close to being festive at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nam juiced up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Nam juiced up a little Yeah, i just saw the nest, and was impressed. Still a little time for this to become a festivus appetizer for the main course later next week. Totally fine with this even if only mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NWS has snow pops up to 60% up here for Sunday night up from 40%. Not bad . Short range models should come into play by tomorrow . I realize most have moved on to the day 7 threat but I track everything to the end. I also understand those in the marginal areas like the cites will be fighting surface temps ..saying that.... ambiance flakes sure could fall even there. After all ..it's Christmas...any flakes are uber bonus man LWX snowmap has you at <1” in their latest forecast. I hope you score a nice Christmas morning surprise! http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Nam juiced up a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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