BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: GEFS supports the Op, at least on low placement, but that's not really saying much at ~84hr leads. lets just count mood flakes as a white Christmas. I will if I actually see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is flatter/weaker with the SW. Not a trend we want right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro flat...no Christmas love east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro flat...no Christmas love east of the mountains. it was always a long shot anyway. not going to write it off just yet. GFS was flat two days ago or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Here you go. 6 hour precip intervals. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php By the way, did you guys take a look at day 6 on the Ukie at this link? You should if you haven't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro has snow (based on 850 temps) from 0z-6z on the 25th (i.e., Christmas Eve), but looks like the boundary layer is warm so no (or little) accumulation. I'd still take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has snow (based on 850 temps) from 0z-6z on the 25th (i.e., Christmas Eve), but looks like the boundary layer is warm so no (or little) accumulation. I'd still take this. WxBell has it like 35 and light rain. Groin kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Christmas storm will 75% chance trend toward more snow, because models always move toward negative NAO, and not positive NAO, when building from 10mb warming event in short term leading up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has snow (based on 850 temps) from 0z-6z on the 25th (i.e., Christmas Eve), but looks like the boundary layer is warm so no (or little) accumulation. I'd still take this. Evenly spaced N to S in the forum or skewed toward N. Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: WxBell has it like 35 and light rain. Groin kicker. Ha. Yeah, it's possible with the boundary layer warmth. Don't have profiles, so I couldn't say. Just now, BristowWx said: Evenly spaced N to S in the forum or skewed toward N. Just curious North. This looks like a northern half of the subforum event if there's an event at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ha. Yeah, it's possible with the boundary layer warmth. Don't have profiles, so I couldn't say. North. This looks like a northern half of the subforum event if there's an event at all. must not be digging like the GFS 12Z. still not punting. any flakes would be a win for that time and be remembered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: must not be digging like the GFS 12Z. still not punting. any flakes would be a win for that time and be remembered Correct. Vort is a fair bit further north on the Euro vs. the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Correct. Vort is a fair bit further north on the Euro vs. the GFS. Yea, that's the issue. I don't care about dissecting 35 and drizzle or 10 flakes an hour. The real issue is the shortwave came in flatter/weaker/further north. This can change of course and it probably will (one way or the other). But it wasn't a good trend @ d3-4 leads. If the SW digs more with more energy temps will respond accordingly. No matter how you slice it, the euro depiction sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If I can channel my inner Ji for a minute: the Euro never supports us when we need it. The Euro hasn't been feeling a Christmas Miracle™ in the cities for us at all. Not fond of that trend continuing inside d3-4. We need to see some changes soon. I'm waiting for the Euro to go amp happy but I'm not sure it'll get there. I'm not really interested in 10 flakes an hour either. Just give me a few hours of real -SN or SN and I'll take that as a Super Bowl win. Yes, that will need to happen, some 'ampiness'. Even so, if we get enough to cover things to white I'll consider it a win for Christmas am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 EPS throws a major red flag. 2/50 get a dusting to DCA by Day 5. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS throws a major red flag. 2/50 get a dusting to DCA by Day 5. No bueno. So you’re saying there’s a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Only one member of the Canadian ensemble gives DC any Christmas snow, and that one looks like only about a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Dead Jim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dead Jim? Miracles don’t show themselves until the last minute..the hallmark of miracles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Nam has mood flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Nam has mood flakes here Christmas Babies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS keeps hope alive for another 6 hours with a dusting for most of us Christmas Eve. But the vort is north and flatter relative to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Miracles don’t show themselves until the last minute..the hallmark of miracles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: It's not gonna be great...but what the heck...it's not 70...60...50.wish it could be like around 8 am instead of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, we need to stop the bleeding. In all honesty, I doubt we get anything. I'm pretty happy that both Christmas Eve and Christmas will feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's cold out. This could be nice snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ll take what I can get, but it would be nice to do something we haven’t done in a while. I’m far from sold on next week being a week of wonder. Agree. It will be fun to track until it’s mostly rain event. I don’t liked amped solutions. We don’t do well with those except extreme setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 NAM trends better Could be a nice 2-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Next run will be wetter, then it will back off a little. circles circles circles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: NAM trends better Could be a nice 2-4" event. Only in NE. A lp develops over N Carolina at hour 69 only to scoot out to sea leaving us with some rain showers. But NE does get some snow out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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