Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This doesn't have the potential to be a big event either way, but I think there's still potential for at least mood flakes and maybe a light accumulation, particularly for the northern portion of the subforum. Last night's Euro and EPS trended southward a bit from where the low hops to the coast, which is friendlier to us. It's more of a Miller B look than a southern stream wave riding up the coast on those two and the GGEM. We know how those usually work out, hence why I don't think even best case this is a big deal. But if we can keep pulling it south a bit, maybe we can back into a light event. If development happens just south and we get some lift juice from the jet then I could see a period of decent snowfall. By decent I mean the 6z gfs looks plausible but things need to line up just right since we are at the starting line. Further NE obviously is in a much better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm more interested in mood flakes on Christmas anything more is cake. Remember these wonderful models had us in the 70's on Christmas day. The fact we are talking about flakes falling is wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If development happens just south and we get some lift juice from the jet then I could see a period of decent snowfall. By decent I mean the 6z gfs looks plausible but things need to line up just right since we are at the starting line. Further NE obviously is in a much better spot. 6z GFS solution is certainly the "easiest" for us. Basically a clipper with a neutral-tilted vort pass. Euro has a similar strength vortmax and a similar trajectory, but has the trough go negatively tilted, and hence pops the coastal, which robs any moisture we would see from the vort alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Shortwave keeps edging better on the gfs. Should be a another run that keeps us hooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 LWX drops a great PNS on White Christmas stats: Quote 000 NOUS41 KLWX 211555 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031-036>040- 050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-220000- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1055 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * WHITE CHRISTMAS STATISTICS * * * * * * * * * Here are the Christmas statistics for Baltimore MD and Washington DC compiled by the National Weather Service’s Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office. The big questions... * What are our odds of a white Christmas? ... * What is typical Christmas weather? ... First for Washington...then for Baltimore below... *** Washington *** Examination of climate records going back to 1872 for Christmases in Washington show a typical Christmas day is partly cloudy with a frosty early morning low of 30 and an afternoon high of 44. But the year-to-year weather can vary considerably. Snow (and Rain)... Snowfall occurring on Christmas day is rare in Washington. Since 1884 when snowfall records began in Washington DC, only 9 times has there been measurable snow that actually fell on Christmas day. That averages to about once every 15 years, or about 7 percent. The 5 highest snowfall days occurring in Washington on Christmas day... 1... 1962 ... 5.4 inches 2... 1909 ... 4.5 inches 3... 1969 ... 4.3 inches 4... 1902 ... 1.0 inches 5... 1935 ... 0.6 inches If one interprets a white Christmas being as either having measurable snowfall, and/or having snow already on the ground, then odds of a white Christmas are better. Since 1884, twenty times measurable snow was on the ground on Christmas day that either fell that day, or was still on the ground from an earlier snowfall. That averages to a white Christmas about once every 7 years, or a 14 percent chance. Washington last had measurable snow falling on Christmas Day 15 years ago in 2002, with 0.2 inches of snow and sleet reported that day. The last time we had measurable snow on the ground from a previous snow was 2009 when 7 inches were still on the ground from the first of three major snowstorms that winter that hit on December 18-19. All 7 inches of that snowpack on Christmas morning 2009 melted by the next morning. Precipitation of any sort (rain included) is much easier to come by of course. Fifty-three Christmases have had measurable precipitation. That translates to about 37 percent of the time, or about one in every three. Coldest Christmases... The coldest was 1983 with a low temperature of 3 degrees above zero. That day also produced the coldest high temperature for Christmas, a frigid 14 degrees that afternoon. The five coldest low temperatures on Christmas day were: 1983 - 3 degrees 1872 - 5 degrees 1989 - 11 degrees 1980 - 12 degrees 1906 - 13 degrees Warmest Christmases... The warmest Christmas day featured a toasty high of 72 degrees in 1964. That said, two years ago was one of the warmest as well at 69 degrees. The top 5 warmest were: 1964 - 72 degrees 1982 - 70 degrees 1965, 2015 - 69 degrees 1932 - 68 degrees Christmases in the 2000s: 2016 --> Hi 51 Low 35 Mostly sunny and mild 2015 --> Hi 69 Low 57 Very warm. Morning fog, then rain 2014 --> Hi 61 Low 46 Pre-dawn cold front then mild mostly sunny 2013 --> Hi 33 Low 22 Mostly sunny and cool 2012 --> Hi 51 Low 34 Mostly cloudy and seasonably mild 2011 --> Hi 48 Low 34 Mostly sunny and seasonable 2010 --> Hi 36 Low 32 Cloudy/morning flurries 2009 --> Hi 47 Low 29 Snowmelt/cloudy/mid afternoon-night rain 2008 --> Hi 58 Low 32 Partly sunny high occurred at midnight 2007 --> Hi 52 Low 37 Partly sunny and mild 2006 --> Hi 50 Low 37 Cloudy with afternoon and night rain 2005 --> Hi 44 Low 30 Cloudy with afternoon rain 2004 --> Hi 33 Low 24 Sunny and cold 2003 --> Hi 42 Low 31 Mostly sunny and blustery 2002 --> Hi 39 Low 33 Rain with some snow/sleet 2001 --> Hi 41 Low 28 Mostly sunny and cool 2000 --> Hi 28 Low 19 Sunny breezy and cold For the very latest weather expectations for this Christmas, consult our latest forecast at weather.gov/washington and our winter page weather.gov/washington/winter . *** Baltimore MD *** Examination of weather records going back to 1872, shows a typical Christmas day is partly cloudy with a frosty early morning low of 26 and an afternoon high of 43. But the year-to-year weather can vary considerably. Snow (and rain)... Snow falling on Christmas day is rare in Baltimore. It last happened 15 years ago in 2002 when a generally rainy Christmas morning changed to snow during the late morning to yield an inch of snowfall. However, since 1893 when snowfall records began in Baltimore MD, only twelve times has there been measurable snow that fell on Christmas day. That averages to about once every 10 years, or about 10 percent. The 5 highest snowfalls occurring in Baltimore on Christmas day... 1... 1909 ... 9.3 inches 2... 1969 ... 6.1 inches 3... 1902 ... 3.0 inches 4... 1962 ... 2.9 inches 5... 1935 ... 1.2 inches If one interprets a white Christmas as either measurable snowfall and/or having snow already on the ground, the odds of a white Christmas improve. Since 1893, there have been 24 Christmases that measurable snow either fell that day, or was on the ground already from a previous storm. That averages to a white Christmas about once every 5 years, or about a 20 percent chance. Baltimore last had measurable snow falling on Christmas Day 15 years ago in 2002, with 1.0 inches of snow and sleet reported that day. The last time we had measurable snow on the ground from a previous snow was 2009 when 6 inches were still on the ground from the first of three major snowstorms that winter that hit on December 18-19. All 6 inches of that snowpack on Christmas morning 2009 melted by the next morning. Precipitation of any sort, including rain, is much easier to come by of course. Fifty one Christmases have had measurable precipitation. That translates to about 35 percent of the time. Coldest Christmases... The coldest Christmas was recorded in 1983 when the temperature fell to zero degrees. That day also produced the coldest high temperature for the day, a frigid 12 degrees. The five coldest lows on Christmas in Baltimore were: 1983 - 0 degrees 1980 - 7 degrees 1989 - 7 degrees 1872 - 8 degrees 1960 - 12 degrees Warmest Christmases... The warmest Christmas in Baltimore, a toasty 72 degrees in 1964. That said, two years ago was the second warmest at 71. The six warmest Christmases: 1964 - 72 degrees 2015 - 71 degrees 1982 - 70 degrees 1889, 1893, 1932 - 67 degrees Christmases in the 2000s: 2016 --> Hi 50 Low 27 Mostly sunny and mild 2015 --> Hi 71 Low 58 Very warm. Morning fog, then rain 2014 --> Hi 61 Low 35 Pre-dawn cold front then mild mostly sunny 2013 --> Hi 32 Low 18 Mostly sunny and cold 2012 --> Hi 48 Low 30 Mostly cloudy and seasonably mild 2011 --> Hi 48 Low 24 Mostly sunny and seasonable 2010 --> Hi 34 Low 29 Cloudy/light snow in the morning 2009 --> Hi 42 Low 19 Snowmelt/cloudy/late afternoon-night rain 2008 --> Hi 59 Low 32 Partly sunny high occurred at midnight 2007 --> Hi 50 Low 30 Partly sunny and mild 2006 --> Hi 50 Low 30 Cloudy with afternoon and night rain 2005 --> Hi 42 Low 24 Cloudy with afternoon rain 2004 --> Hi 31 Low 17 Sunny and cold 2003 --> Hi 41 Low 28 Mostly sunny and blustery 2002 --> Hi 38 Low 32 Rain with some snow/sleet 2001 --> Hi 40 Low 23 Partly sunny and cool 2000 --> Hi 27 Low 17 Sunny breezy and cold For the very latest weather expectations for this Christmas, consult our latest forecast at weather.gov/baltimore and our winter page weather.gov/baltimore/winter . Happy holidays!! 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mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Shortwave keeps edging better on the gfs. Should be a another run that keeps us hooked. If it gets too good, we rain. ALready the cold air is holding off some more since 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I see it rides the 540 line. kind of cool to see blue with that date stamp. I would get a car topper for sure if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS is a Merry Christmas! Crazy the way events have trended better as we approach them this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Merry Christmas from the 12z GFS OP. This would verify a white Christmas at IAD and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 whoa, it's pretty awesome how the GFS leaves it there at hr78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 you can see the 500mb vort trend from the last 4 runs. impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 one more dig south perhaps. might start as RA/SN mix but should switch over I would think...maybe a 3 hours period..kids will be up at 3am so we might see it falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Precip out by 15z on the 25th. It all falls at night...would be epic to wake up to with cold air advection all day...the snow wouldn't go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Cities would really be fighting the surface. Temps as precip moves in are are upper 30's low 40's. One plus is it does come in over night. eta: would really come down to how quick the cold could filter in. Get some good rates that would help with the cooling as well from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 How often do we win the timing of cold arrival vs precip exiting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: How often do we win the timing of cold arrival vs precip exiting? About as often as the Red Skins win. Which is very rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: About as often as the Red Skins win. Which is very rarely. I figured as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: I figured as much. N and west of the cities would be a different story though. Temps would support snow as depicted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 There could easily be a low in the Gulf in a few days. I guess this is a La Nina variable. Looks like a nice Christmas event, soft fine dry snow. Has a lot of upside potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, mappy said: How often do we win the timing of cold arrival vs precip exiting? Probably the only time of year this can work out...night time and entering the coldest climo time. Plus you and I are in Jackpotville™. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: As is usually the case Haven't really liked our chances for Christmas. Complicated setup with timing issues everywhere. And we don't do complicated well in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Probably the only time of year this can work out...night time and entering the coldest climo time. Plus you and I are in Jackpotville™. perhaps. i mean snow on the ground christmas morning is nice, but to have it all hinge on cold coming in just right, makes me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: perhaps. i mean snow on the ground christmas morning is nice, but to have it all hinge on cold coming in just right, makes me skeptical. I think the shorter days makes this the easiest time of year to get something like that to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We don't. Complicated doesn't work around here. Let's see if we continue our December heater with some snowflakes on Christmas. It's called a miracle for a reason! GEFS should be intriguing. 3 minutes ago, mappy said: perhaps. i mean snow on the ground christmas morning is nice, but to have it all hinge on cold coming in just right, makes me skeptical. Good thing the weenies have their pacifier (Weekend Snowstorm) to look at or their would probably be some meltdowns with what the GFS actually shows (and not the bogus snowfall map) for Christmas in the cities and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Hard to be upset with this for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Was the Ukie any good? Precip maps only go out to 72 hours, but it shows some decent precip in the Ohio Valley at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Precip maps only go out to 72 hours, but it shows some decent precip in the Ohio Valley at 72 hrs. Yea, impossible to tell what happens between 72-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, impossible to tell what happens between 72-96. 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I wish we had access to better Ukie data. Oh well. Euro is running. May the odds be ever in our favor. Here you go. 6 hour precip intervals. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Here you go. 6 hour precip intervals. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Ah! Totally forgot about that. Drops some mood flakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS supports the Op, at least on low placement, but that's not really saying much at ~84hr leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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