BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Congrats LaPlata Also PWC and FFX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Congrats LaPlata It's coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 All of that Torque hitting the West Coast and Greenland should spring moisture up from Cuba and Florida hr96-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yup GFS not in phase with PV. amplifies southern energy in bad sequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 34 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yup GFS not in phase with PV. amplifies southern energy in bad sequence Need to align the phase disruptor with the antimatter flux capacitor in the warp core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That was my first thought lol. We need a miracle to have our miracle. The smart thing to do is blend guidance so I'm blending the euro qpf with the gfs temps. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Maybe it's for the greater good. We compensate by getting slammed by the 27th-30th event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I get .1-.5 snow on the 25th. That's right 18z said so. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NWS is bullish for here . Pops of 40% Sunday night. We got this. I'm at 50%. Highest chance. 60% is lowest likely. Oh yeah this will hold. I am just not sure where it's coming from. Weak disturbance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Still alive...some of us. .5 still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Rockville death band coming into focus. .05 @ 20:1 = 1" white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Individual members lend some support. Maybe at least some mood flakes in the air. Possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 European looks better. At least further East, but it basically hits a brick wall. No frozen precip gets to us Compared to 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The NAVGEM, if u believe it, is probably least progressive with the front of all current ops and has light snow for DC most of Monday morning while kiddos rip open their presents. Did something similar Dec 9 in leading the way to a NW trend at 96ish hours out. Repeat? Could the NAVGEM be that one whistle-blower model for this season? We can dream, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6z gfs big enough changes at 500mb at 84 hrs to at least warrant an eyebrowse raise. Energy diving into Plains stronger, aligned to dig more thus backing heights more in response along the coast. Ridge out W slightly more amped. Could be something, could be nothing but worth a note anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 11 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: It's coming back 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That was my first thought lol. We need a miracle to have our miracle. 6z gfs. As Al Michaels once said, "Do you believe in miracles?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6z gfs. As Al Michaels once said, "Do you believe in miracles?"You forgot "YES!" :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS has a white christmas for DC - PHL - NYC. The Holy Grail is within our grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS has a white christmas for DC - PHL - NYC. The Holy Grail is within our grasp. When’s the last time the NE corridor had snow on the 25th at the same time. Santa would be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Watch out for that sneaky negative NAO that has been trying to build on models. When event is 3-4 days out, there is strong tendency to have an organic block up near Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS Individual members lend some support for the potential snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Nice disco from Mount Holly this morning on the Xmas miracle- A strong/digging vort max will reach the base of the longwave trough in the central U.S. Sunday night, which will promote wave development along the slowing front in the southeastern U.S. As the vort max lifts northeastward, very favorable jet coupling should occur, promoting rapid cyclogenesis along the East Coast Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Though the specifics regarding this system remain elusive thanks to considerable operational/ensemble model spread, the progressive look of the GFS looks unlikely given the overall amplified look to the flow (furthermore, this also is a common bias it exhibits). The CMC is middle-of-the-road, but the western look of the 00Z ECMWF is favored given more consistency and pattern recognition. Notably, the CMC/ECMWF have very similar QPF fields as the cyclone races northeastward; instead, the disagreement looks primarily based on phase/spatial discrepancies. With the above in mind, think there is a reasonable chance for precipitation Sunday night and Monday morning across the area, with chances for snow, especially northwest of I-95. With model spread this large, the details are not at all clear (nor worth discussing at length at this point). Given its timing and potential impacts, it is obviously worth staying tuned to the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Potential is there- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The elephant in the room is: These patterns are usually dry. La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 LWX much less impressed at this time for late Sunday night/early Monday based on their discussion. Time for trending I suppose. My zone went from a happy 50% chance of snow to RA/SN 30%...not very festive...but not unexpected. yet somehow I still see the potential based on what is shown at 500mb. 4.5 days...lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: LWX much less impressed at this time for late Sunday night/early Monday based on their discussion. Time for trending I suppose. My zone went from a happy 50% chance of snow to RA/SN 30%...not very festive...but not unexpected. yet somehow I still see the potential based on what is shown at 500mb. 4.5 days...lets see Maybe that discussion was based on prior models runs? Don't get me wrong. I know that pro mets don't jump in and out with each model run, but 6z looks better, and if 12z looks better too, then maybe they will be more bull'ish again. All in all, I think the lwx office has done a great job with the winter events that we've had this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: LWX much less impressed at this time for late Sunday night/early Monday based on their discussion. Time for trending I suppose. My zone went from a happy 50% chance of snow to RA/SN 30%...not very festive...but not unexpected. yet somehow I still see the potential based on what is shown at 500mb. 4.5 days...lets see My forecast is now 50% chance of rain-snow > snow for Sunday night. Mount Holly is a tad more bullish. My gut feeling is we do see some decent coastal development but it will be probably a bit too late for our general area. Better chances for Philly N & E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Neg NAO signature on 12z NAM with lows spinning off south of Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: My forecast is now 50% chance of rain-snow > snow for Sunday night. Mount Holly is a tad more bullish. My gut feeling is we do see some decent coastal development but it will be probably a bit too late for our general area. Better chances for Philly N & E. I hope we all can get it...make for great story we will remember...6z gives everyone love which is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 This doesn't have the potential to be a big event either way, but I think there's still potential for at least mood flakes and maybe a light accumulation, particularly for the northern portion of the subforum. Last night's Euro and EPS trended southward a bit from where the low hops to the coast, which is friendlier to us. It's more of a Miller B look than a southern stream wave riding up the coast on those two and the GGEM. We know how those usually work out, hence why I don't think even best case this is a big deal. But if we can keep pulling it south a bit, maybe we can back into a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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