mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Naughty or Nice... Coal or Snow... what will it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 We'll start with the Nam because it's the only thing available. At 84 hours it looks similar to GFS, but not as far east with the cold. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017122012&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Lets keep it as banter free as possible in here, if you see your posts disappearing.... rethink them. thanks underpaid management Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I think the goal is any flakes on 24th or 25th. The NAM evolution looks odd to me compared to 6z same time stamp. no precip south of that low on the NAM. But its 84 NAM so just looking until 12z GFS rolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 3K seems to be lagging the front quite a bit more than the GFS is. Something to keep an eye on I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS slightly less amped with the cutter through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z GGEM is a bit weird... at 108 it has a 1008mb SLP on the VA/NC border (central parts of the state)... at 120 its a 999mb coastal up by Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: On black and white maps? Yes, waiting for the TT maps to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 trends continue, but I'm not sure how much more trend we have left. Western locals have best shot as ridging continues to flattenm, but the cold can only come so fast, and still has a decent clip left to "get it done". Nailbiter for some. Off in sleigh playing santa to clients...I'll be lurkin. Here's to luck. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 CMC develops the trailing wave just a little too late. Nice hit up north but our area gets some early development scraps at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS is really flat. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS is squashed. At least it's not going to be 70 degrees on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Canadian and GFS are worlds apart for day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 all that work we did for a sprinkle and some clouds 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Canadian and GFS are worlds apart for day 3. they are the same townhouse in terms of giving us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It appears the Ukie has the follow up wave. It strengthens a 1019 low by 20 mb in 24 hours as it comes north. Too bad no precip maps http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 mid-range talk, but not impressed with the Ukie push of cold into our back yards on day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Don’t see a lot of love on the GEFS for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Ban mitch for starting the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Stronger trailing vort and further south for Xmas per euro...close enough for me to stay interested Very close to a light event. Your yard moreso than mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Garrett County/WV mountains would see a white Christmas from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Garrett County/WV mountains would see a white Christmas from the Euro. it is rain further east or just nothing. Is this elevation driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GEFS/Euro moved away from each other @ 12z. Our area is sorta stuck in purgatory. Getting precip AND temps to time right is going to be a big challenge it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: GEFS/Euro moved away from each other @ 12z. Our area is sorta stuck in purgatory. Getting precip AND temps to time right is going to be a big challenge it seems. Go with the one that shows the best chances for snow. Never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: it is rain further east or just nothing. Is this elevation driven? This run has measurable qpf between 6-12z on christmas day. Cold is chasing though. The 0z run last night didn't have much if any precip during the same period. It was a step in the right direction precip wise but temps are lagging. Seems like if the temps push in early, our chances of precip go down. However, if you shift just 50-75 miles to the east on the euro and we get some light snowfall so not out of the game yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 EPS offers no support for wintry precip, but it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Our friends along the favored areas in N MD are close to seeing a white Christmas. Mountains look like the place to be with timing of precip/cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 It's starting to look like everything could be rain. Doesn't Baltimore average 2" snow in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's starting to look like everything could be rain. Doesn't Baltimore average 2" snow in December? about 3" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I like that the GFS is trending toward negative NAO. Big moisture snowstorms have neutral forecasted NAO in medium range that in the short term pops out of nowhere organic block over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Congrats LaPlata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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