NNE Winter Thread

[alex]

2.5" overnight... headed to Boston for a couple of days with the kiddos, and ready to say good-bye to this awesome snowpack! 

[powderfreak]

Ended up with 4" at High Rd this morning and a 5.5" storm total.  I was off but sounded reasonably dense too.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z GFS  for 1pm Saturday

Concord NH  57F

18Z GFS for 1pm Saturday

Concord NH 32F

I'm so glad this is just a hobby for me,  I could never take the stress of forecasting for a living!

[eyewall]

Not sure if anyone saw this:
 

Combination of isentropic ascent and frontogenetic forcing
across the low-level frontal zone appears potentially
significant per 12Z guidance suite, with warm layer aloft likely
remaining in place across the Champlain Valley and points ewd.
Better potential for snow/sleet across the St. Lawrence Valley,
where vertical profiles should be colder. QPF amts are
impressive...generally 1.5- 2" liquid equivalent in the 12z GFS,
and 1-1.5" per ECMWF. Could see significant travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday as a result. While it is hard to
pinpoint the location, axis of freezing rain bisecting the
forecast area could bring significant ice accumulations, perhaps
exceeding 0.5" ice

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

We’ve still got a few flurries going on out there, but I think the snowfall from this latest system is just about done.

 

Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0

Snow Density: 1.3% H2O

Temperature: 29.8 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

[J.Spin]

I cored the snowpack here to get an idea of the water content ahead of the next system coming into the area, since it’s interesting to see how these events play out in terms of total liquid in the snowpack, but it’s also potentially useful to the various forecasting/climate agencies.  The analysis revealed 2.68” of liquid in the core.  That’s a bit lower than the modeled value for our station at the NOHRSC site (~3.20”), which is fairly close to the total liquid we’ve received (3.39”) since the snowpack has been in place.  Presumably there’s been a bit more liquid lost to sublimation, percolation, etc. than the modeling suggests.  I’ve posted a copy of the NOHRSC SWE/Snow Depth/Snow Melt plot for our site below.

 

[J.Spin]

Well, a lot will depend on the track of that low from Friday into Saturday, but for now the forecast discussion suggests that the farther one is to the northwest around here the better with respect to snowfall potential:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

348 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 345 PM EST Wednesday...Significant snowfall across nrn NY and significant mix of sleet/snow/freezing rain across VT still on track for Friday night into the early afternoon hours on Saturday.

 

The low track has shifted a bit further south and east across the lower Hudson Valley and srn New England per 12Z GFS/ECMWF, which means a colder soln across our forecast area. As a result, should see mostly snow across the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley, and snow/sleet mix in nwrn VT, including the Burlington area. Increased snow amts to 8-12" across nrn NY, and should see 4-8" across nwrn VT...highest across nrn Franklin and Clinton Counties where sub-freezing air will be deeper. Should see a period of moderate to heavy snowfall with best forcing 08-15Z Saturday. Further south and east, will see a mix of freezing rain and sleet for central/s-central/nern VT, with warm layer aloft holding on.

[eyewall]

As J. Spin highlighted, we have a mess headed this way but hopefully more snow/sleet than zr. Anyway before the kitchen sink begins I wanted to return to Nebraska Notch with much calmer conditions. It was a fun flight!

[adk]

Go home weather, your drunk.  Nothing like a four day stretch where it ices, rains, gets to 50+, sleets, snows, and then goes to the single digits. Awesome. 

The event Friday night into Saturday is very interesting. Going to be an incredibly tight band of heavy snow transitioning to narrow band of sleet with a lot of rain and/or nothing on either side. Question to me is how does that strip set up.  If I had to bet on a place getting 12" of snow, that's upper elevation whiteface. VT looks like maybe 4-6" with a decent amount of sleet.  Though that's not too terrible given that it's going to be falling on a trainwreck of a snow surface. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, adk said:

Go home weather, your drunk.  Nothing like a four day stretch where it ices, rains, gets to 50+, sleets, snows, and then goes to the single digits. Awesome. 

The event Friday night into Saturday is very interesting. Going to be an incredibly tight band of heavy snow transitioning to narrow band of sleet with a lot of rain and/or nothing on either side. Question to me is how does that strip set up.  If I had to bet on a place getting 12" of snow, that's upper elevation whiteface. VT looks like maybe 4-6" with a decent amount of sleet.  Though that's not too terrible given that it's going to be falling on a trainwreck of a snow surface. 

The amount of rain being printed out is sickening

[J.Spin]

This current complex storm moving into the area is called Winter Storm Hunter, with Winter Storm Watches up throughout the BTV NWS forecast area for potential snow and mixed precipitation.  I’ve got the advisory and projected accumulations maps below, and one can easily see the dramatic gradient forecast for snowfall moving from northwest to southeast.

 

 

[klw]

I was raking some snow off the roof last night and could hear ice coming off the trees in our woods as they are finally freeing themselves of the frozen rain from 12/23.  It was continuing this morning as well.

[eyewall]

It is nice to see we will get a quick make up snow following this 2 day mud season. 

[ApacheTrout]

10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is nice to see we will get a quick make up snow following this 2 day mud season. 

you think we'll lose the snowpack?

[eyewall]

15 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

you think we'll lose the snowpack?

I think BTV and the CPV returns to bare ground ahead of the next snow on Sat but I don't know about the interior. It is obviously quite a bit deeper there. The mountains of course will lose some but not all by any stretch. 

[ApacheTrout]

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think BTV and the CPV returns to bare ground ahead of the next snow on Sat but I don't know about the interior. It is obviously quite a bit deeper there. The mountains of course will lose some but not all by any stretch. 

These are the winter events that happen too often, usually right after I get my pond in skating condition.

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

These are the winter events that happen too often, usually right after I get my pond in skating condition.

Everyone west of the spine up and down VT should be wiped clean I would think...its hours and hours and hours of 55/52 type stuff along with Rains. Even today its taking beating.  Although you guys further north look to rebuild quickly once that second wave comes through and drops some snow.  Down here not expecting much snow, mainly ZR and IP on the frozen side.

 

 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I think BTV and the CPV returns to bare ground ahead of the next snow on Sat but I don't know about the interior. It is obviously quite a bit deeper there. The mountains of course will lose some but not all by any stretch. 

 

2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Everyone west of the spine up and down VT should be wiped clean I would think...its hours and hours and hours of 55/52 type stuff along with Rains. Even today its taking beating.  Although you guys further north look to rebuild quickly once that second wave comes through and drops some snow.  Down here not expecting much snow, mainly ZR and IP on the frozen side.

 

Looking out at the snow on the ground here at UVM, I would say it will melt out fairly easily in the Burlington area with the upcoming temperatures and rain – there are only a few inches out there anyway right now.  From this morning’s report it looks like the BTV NWS station has 7.0 inches, so it seems to be a bit deeper out toward the airport.

 

Checking on the NOHRSC snowpack modeling for our site, it suggests the snow will consolidate/melt down to roughly 6 to 7 inches, which would be a drop of about 10 inches from where it was this morning.  Their modeling had the water content in our snowpack a bit on the high side (about a half inch of liquid) compared to my analysis as I mentioned in my post yesterday, so it will be interesting to see how the actual observations compare to the modeling a couple of days from now.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

20 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

Looking out at the snow on the ground here at UVM, I would say it will melt out fairly easily in the Burlington area with the upcoming temperatures and rain – there are only a few inches out there anyway right now.  From this morning’s report it looks like the BTV NWS station has 7.0 inches, so it seems to be a bit deeper out toward the airport.

 

Checking on the NOHRSC snowpack modeling for our site, it suggests the snow will consolidate/melt down to roughly 6 to 7 inches, which would be a drop of about 10 inches from where it was this morning.  Their modeling had the water content in our snowpack a bit on the high side (about a half inch of liquid) compared to my analysis as I mentioned in my post yesterday, so it will be interesting to see how the actual observations compare to the modeling a couple of days from now.

 

Yea, I saw you posted that graph the other day too.  It will be interesting to bump this like you said to this to see how accurate it is after the torch.  Considering it has you losing 10", then anyone to your west that has pack of 12" or less should be taken out--looking below most are currently 6-12"(with a few a little more closer to the spine) It will be warmer with higher dews away from the spine with the southerly flow. 

[tamarack]

Currently 18" at my place, with 3"+ water - no core taken, but 3.46" LE since Dec 8 with highest temp 34 during that span - some sublimation but no melt.  I'm guessing the bottom line will be +/-3" from current depth, depending on changeover details and CAD resistance (or lack of.)

[backedgeapproaching]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Currently 18" at my place, with 3"+ water - no core taken, but 3.46" LE since Dec 8 with highest temp 34 during that span - some sublimation but no melt.  I'm guessing the bottom line will be +/-3" from current depth, depending on changeover details and CAD resistance (or lack of.)

Truly the pack king if you only lose 3". I have had 10" more season to date and will be bare and brown most likely, but no surprise really given our respective climos.

[J.Spin]

44 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea, I saw you posted that graph the other day too.  It will be interesting to bump this like you said to this to see how accurate it is after the torch.  Considering it has you losing 10", then anyone to your west that has pack of 12" or less should be taken out--looking below most are currently 6-12"(with a few a little more closer to the spine) It will be warmer with higher dews away from the spine with the southerly flow. 

 

Backedge, where do you go to get the snowpack map date presented like that with the numerical values for the various sites? – it seems to show CoCoRaHS sites plus other sites as well (maybe Co-Op sites, etc.) on a nice topographic map.

[wxeyeNH]

1pm and up to 39.8F.   So today will  be the first 40F since Dec 6th?  Darn,  I just checked.  I hit 40F for a very brief time back on Dec 19th so only 22 days not 36 or so!

Pack is down to 16".   Just did some roof raking.  The powder on top slides off the ice layer from the Dec ice storm.  Below that its dense snow.  So I will bet lots of money that when this is said and done I have no bare ground showing.  

I feel bad for the deer.  They have had to endure this cold spell and that ice layer under the powder.  This storm will glaciate the pack so it what remains will be slow to melt..

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Backedge, where do you go to get the snowpack map date presented like that with the numerical values for the various sites? – it seems to show CoCoRaHS sites plus other sites as well (maybe Co-Op sites, etc.) on a nice topographic map.

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?ql=station&zoom=&zoom4.x=10&zoom4.y=10&loc=Latitude%2CLongitude%3B+City%2CST%3B+or+Station+ID&var=ssm_swe&dy=2018&dm=1&dd=11&dh=18&snap=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&mode=pan&extents=us&min_x=-73.341666666669&min_y=42.208333333329&max_x=-69.591666666669&max_y=44.316666666662&coord_x=-71.466666666669&coord_y=43.2624999999955&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&width=800&height=450&nw=800&nh=450&h_o=0&font=0&js=1&uc=0

 

Just select one of the latest obs choices in the drop down on the top left.

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

Backedge, where do you go to get the snowpack map date presented like that with the numerical values for the various sites? – it seems to show CoCoRaHS sites plus other sites as well (maybe Co-Op sites, etc.) on a nice topographic map.

Dendrite posted the NOHRSC site, which has a ton of useful/interactive map stuff.

The actual site i got it from is this below for quick local depth.  I just put in zip code then click "local area snow depth".  That site just uses the data from NOHRSC, so its the same data and originates from what Dendrite posted.

 

http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/Snow-Depth-US.htm

 

 

[J.Spin]

I just got a text alert that a Winter Storm Warning is up for my county, so I went to the BTV NWS site to get the latest updated maps.  The Winter Storm Warnings are generally posted for northern Vermont & New York at this stage.  The latest projected accumulations map has pushed the snowfall a bit more to the northwest relative to this morning’s map.

 

[mreaves]

Just now, J.Spin said:

I just got a text alert that a Winter Storm Warning is up for my county, so I went to the BTV NWS site to get the latest updated maps.  The Winter Storm Warnings are generally posted for northern Vermont & New York at this stage.  The latest projected accumulations map has pushed the snowfall a bit more to the northwest relative to this morning’s map.

 

Was just coming in to post this.  Accumulations pused NW a bit but upgraded to warning.  Would like to see a bigger thump of snow (obviously) but covering up the ugliness will be nice.

[adk]

My favorite part about the NWS disco on this is the note that says "unwanted" snow should be moved quickly on Saturday as it will turn into a brick....

I hope VTrans and the towns pay attention here and note that 4-6" isn't rallyu 4-6" of snow. That's like 3.5" of sleet and 1.5" of snow. Gotta treat roads a lot differently when its like that.

[wxeyeNH]

High of 42F under cloudy skies and no wind.  Very, very little melting today.  Temps falling back now into the mid and upper 30's.  CAD always wins while its toasty just 40 miles away in the Concord NH area.

So this warm spell that we have been watching is going to widdle down to a 12 hour torch.  Don't even know how torchy it will be,  low or mid 40's?   Then the freezer door opens back up.

16" on the ground now.   My guess is 8-10" will be left before fropa..    We will see.

[tamarack]

GYX afternoon AFD talks about 1-2" RA and the P'n'C forecast for my area has 1/2-3/4" for 2 consecutive periods (and less than 1/2" accum IP/SN - boo.)  Upper 40s temp/dews with that much rain, followed by that tiny amount of frozen, makes my 3" or less snowpack loss seem overly optimistic.  And makes for bulletproof surfaces, both on the pack and on the roads.  Just filled up the ash bucket; looks like we'll need it.