adk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 43 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haha we have threads for 100 of pages of posts for storms and then you look at that image you post and get 12" of snow.... and its like WTF? Exactly. Massive COASTAL BLIZZARD OF EPIC PROPORTIONS....4" in the Greens with A LOT OF WIND. Fart over the Great Lakes - 12" of perfect 3% snow and no wind. I'm rarely every totally surprised for weather events in the Northern Greens. But this one I would have NEVER guessed. Even when the radar signature was good last night at 7PM I was like, well that's 3-4" inches. Not 12"....that's just bananas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, adk said: Exactly. Massive COASTAL BLIZZARD OF EPIC PROPORTIONS....4" in the Greens with A LOT OF WIND. Fart over the Great Lakes - 12" of perfect 3% snow and no wind. I'm rarely every totally surprised for weather events in the Northern Greens. But this one I would have NEVER guessed. Even when the radar signature was good last night at 7PM I was like, well that's 3-4" inches. Not 12"....that's just bananas. Hearing lots of reports of 18" along the Kitchen Wall area...similar to what our mutual friend discussed. Even the glades down into the Notch...photo from a friend. Just got blasted with pow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hearing lots of reports of 18" along the Kitchen Wall area...similar to what our mutual friend discussed. Even the glades down into the Notch...photo from a friend. Just got blasted with pow last night. Yea, with blowover and the couple of inches from the weekend, I'm sure we're into that 12-18" range in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, adk said: Yea, with blowover and the couple of inches from the weekend, I'm sure we're into that 12-18" range in some spots. Now the "big blizzard" will destroy it and wind-pack out. Could probably pick up another 6-8" when the wind blows all the snow out of the trees, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hearing lots of reports of 18" along the Kitchen Wall area...similar to what our mutual friend discussed. Even the glades down into the Notch...photo from a friend. Just got blasted with pow last night. I feel a little afternoon sickness coming on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I posted the below in the storm thread on Monday: Quote One factor to remember with this and all other storms this season is that this is my winter and everyone else is just living in it. All the snow stolen over the past decade is being returned, all the whiffs and underperformers of yore are all being whiped clean. It is my season and all of the snow shall be mine. All the clippers over perform, the coastals give me a deform band, the cold is unrelenting, the cutters slide trend south, and the pack grows evermore! I am only half joking. I don't care what most of the models are showing today. I expect 8 to 11 inches tomorrow. If I get less I am fine with that as the driveway does not need its piles to grow and we still have ice on everything from the 23rd and I am fine with not losing power. I fully expect to get a deformation band to hit us. I would point this out in the main thread again but lacking science to back it up (does the 3k NAM count as science?) I will keep this truth out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, klw said: I posted the below in the storm thread on Monday: I don't care what most of the models are showing today. I expect 8 to 11 inches tomorrow. If I get less I am fine with that as the driveway does not need its piles to grow and we still have ice on everything from the 23rd and I am fine with not losing power. I fully expect to get a deformation band to hit us. I would point this out in the main thread again but lacking science to back it up (does the 3k NAM count as science?) I will keep this truth out of there. 3km nam/Deep Thunder vs every other model every created...what could go wrong? Could be a nowcast situation up to go time, but most guidance points to east=best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: 3km nam/Deep Thunder vs every other model every created...what could go wrong? Could be a nowcast situation up to go time, but most guidance points to east=best. I am pretty sure Deep Thunder is the working title for Top Gun 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ha I got a shout out in the afternoon AFD from BTV. Can't believe Taber actually wrote that in there, lol. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM EST Wednesday...An active pattern expected as battle between arctic air and modified Pacific air develops across the CONUS...with several system anticipated to impact our region...as the Gulf of Mexico becomes open for business. Saturday/Saturday Night...well advertised cold airmass across our region with 925mb temps btwn -28c and -33c. The combination of building 1040mb high pres over Ohio Valley and departing sub 970mb low pres over the Canadian Maritime will continue to produce brisk northwest sfc winds of 10 to 20 mph with localized higher gusts Saturday...especially with progged 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots. Dangerously cold wind chills continue on Saturday...hopefully PF enjoyed the fresh 12 inches today on Mansfield. However...as 1040mb crests overhead by 06z Sunday...expect winds to quickly weaken by 00z Sunday and become light trrn driven. These light winds combined with fresh snow cover...and mainly clear skies temps will quickly drop. Expect highs only -5f to -15f on Sat...with lows -15f to -30f Sat night...with some values near -35f SLK/NEK and deeper/protected valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The afternoon updates from the BTV NWS are in. The advisories map now shows Winter Storm Warnings in Southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and projected accumulations have been bumped a bit with localized amounts to 10 inches indicated in the advisory text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some interesting notes in the afternoon BTV discussion on possible CPV convergence and a meso band may set up somewhere over VT. Ratios will be an issue when it gets too cold for the 15-20:1 dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 hours ago, eyewall said: Some interesting notes in the afternoon BTV discussion on possible CPV convergence and a meso band may set up somewhere over VT. Ratios will be an issue when it gets too cold for the 15-20:1 dendrites. I really like the chance for BTV in this set-up. I think you get some good Champlain Valley convergence on the VT side of the lake. The flow looks blocked so western slopes back to BTV looks like a good bet. The other thing is with the temps so cold, the snow growth is literally at the surface which is good for that meso-scale stuff as blocked flow and CPV convergence lift occurs relatively low in the atmosphere. My call was 2-4" in Stowe, maybe even less because NE to NNW winds are not very favorable here at all...probably the worst direction in general is out of the due north. But that is a good wind for convergence at BTV as all that cyclonic moisture up in southern Quebec will get funneled south into the CPV. I was thinking 4-7" there. Even with open lake water and arctic air, every little extra moisture will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Before the storm today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I am sticking with my 8 to 11 for home and am anticipating the NWS mid-storm upgrade to a WSW for Windsor and Orange counties to come around noon though it could come later. Light snow started at home around 7:15 or so. 91 in Thetford looks quite snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snow has started to fall here at UVM in Burlington - ~10:15 A.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Snow has started to fall here at UVM in Burlington - ~10:15 A.M. Yep first flakes in the Noosk. we will see if we can still squeak out that 3-6". Come on CPV convergence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Unfortunately on the BTV NWS advisories map, the upcoming Wind Chill Warnings are overriding the Winter Weather Advisory areas in VT and NY and disrupting the ability to fully visualize the storm-related alerts, but the projected accumulations map has changed a bit, so I’ve posted that below. Our point forecast in Waterbury has generally gone up a bit with each of the updates and sums to the 6-10” range though Saturday. That’s not quite going to synch up with the projected accumulations map below since the map is only covering through 7:00 A.M. tomorrow morning, but it seems to be generally in line with the point forecast through tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12Z NAM and GFS boost the amounts in VT, HRRR keeps the heaviest just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Late to the party, but we’ve arrived first flakes just after 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Moderate snow. Will the "death band" make it to me? Perhaps it will and I will be in the pivot. Interesting to note, no wind at all. With a 950 something moving up the coast would expect some blowing and drifting. Probably later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, klw said: 12Z NAM and GFS boost the amounts in VT, HRRR keeps the heaviest just to the east. Going to be hard to get more than 3-6" here in the CPV I think. Snow growth is just garbage. I think Jay/Smuggs get into that 6-10" range. They do better with more northerly winds. There is an upslope signal that kicks in on Friday but, man is it hard to judge. Dendrite growth layer at that time is off the charts - as in its too cold for good dendrite growth. So again who knows. Could be 4" of sticks, sand, and pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, adk said: Going to be hard to get more than 3-6" here in the CPV I think. Snow growth is just garbage. I think Jay/Smuggs get into that 6-10" range. They do better with more northerly winds. There is an upslope signal that kicks in on Friday but, man is it hard to judge. Dendrite growth layer at that time is off the charts - as in its too cold for good dendrite growth. So again who knows. Could be 4" of sticks, sand, and pellets Yea, even down here closer to the heavier stuff the snow growth is anemic at best. Pretty much a nice refresher at this point, but not a stand out event by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice wintry appeal but yeah snow growth here is terrible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Got home. 3.5 inches as of 4:30. Really close to the heavier stuff but looks like the bands are pulling away. Oh well- less to shovel tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Going to be a rough couple days... constant sustained winds of 35-55mph at temperatures as low as -25F. Current projection has wind chills around -60F at the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Lowest vis of the day as of this post and better flake size for sure. Roads are crap around here despite having all day to handle it LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 We are in a solid band here in the Noosk. We will see if yellow pixels appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Event totals: 3.4” Snow/0.23” L.E. I wasn’t at home today, but based on the rate at which the snow was accumulating on our J&E Productions Live Web Cam, the flakes must have been pretty small. There was roughly an inch on the boards by 2:00 P.M., but from 2:00 P.M. to 4:00 P.M. it didn’t look like there was much additional accumulation at all. Things apparently changed dramatically after that though, because there was 3.4 inches of snow on the boards as of 6:00 P.M. observations. My wife got home around 4:00 P.M., and when I got home around 6:00 P.M. there were no signs of her tire tracks in the driveway. I figured she’d had something to do after work, but I was surprised to see her car right there in the garage The accumulations between 4:00 and 6:00 P.M. suggest that the snowfall rate was around an inch an hour, and based on what I’m seeing on the boards right now, that seems to be the current snowfall rate. There are certainly some bigger flakes in there now creating lofty snow because even with today’s earlier snow in the stack, the aggregate density of the snowfall was roughly 15 to 1. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.4 inches New Liquid: 0.23 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 14.8 Snow Density: 6.8% H2O Temperature: 15.6 F Sky: Snow (1-8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches Anyway, the accumulation thus far has been right in line with the 2-4” that the BTV NWS had in our point forecast for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I have no idea exactly but the snow stake has gone up about 14” so far. Completely unexpected. I’ll get some more precise measurements tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3.5”-4” here. Trying to decide if I want to clean it up now or in the morning. Have to drive to Boston tomorrow, if my guests flight goes. Hopefully there will be some semblance of order by the time their flight is scheduled to leave at 5:30 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.