NNE Winter Thread

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Very weird light snow going on here. Almost like heavy angel dust - but definitely not angel dust. Partly cloudy sky and tiny tiny flakes, makes everything look hazy. 

Alex,  Same thing is happening here.  When I look out over the mountains everything is hazy.  Just about 10% of the sky has Cu.  Looking into the sun there are very small snow crystals.  It looks like diamond dust to me.  I am not an expert on sub-zero weather and maybe if there is slightly more moisture diamond dust becomes small,small flakes.  Attached is a zoomed view of the mountains to my west with vis obscured slightly...

Meanwhile its up to -2.3F at 1130am.  I know I have come close but don't think I have had a subzero day.  Will today be the day?  Probably not,  high will probably be 3 or 4F

[eyewall]

Lots of turbulence coming into BTV today over the Greens. It was enough for some airtime in the seat.

[alex]

-3.6 for a high today

[dendrite]

8 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  Same thing is happening here.  When I look out over the mountains everything is hazy.  Just about 10% of the sky has Cu.  Looking into the sun there are very small snow crystals.  It looks like diamond dust to me.  I am not an expert on sub-zero weather and maybe if there is slightly more moisture diamond dust becomes small,small flakes.  Attached is a zoomed view of the mountains to my west with vis obscured slightly...

Meanwhile its up to -2.3F at 1130am.  I know I have come close but don't think I have had a subzero day.  Will today be the day?  Probably not,  high will probably be 3 or 4F

Probably just some -SN being squeezed out of those cumulus and they got eaten away as they fell into the drier air.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, alex said:

-3.6 for a high today

Nice. We had a high of 5 which was cold enough. Thinking of skiing wildcat tomorrow,but may snowmobile instead

[wxeyeNH]

I didn't think today's weak system would provide any light snow to reach the ground.  Guess I was wrong

.6F  light snow vis about 2-3 miles.  Very small flakes..

Overnight low  -6.8F

[J.Spin]

Well, I wasn’t paying much attention to the weather since I didn’t expect any significant snow during this arctic stretch, but around 10:00 A.M. my wife pointed out that it was snowing.  I figured it was just some arctic dust, but a quick check on the BTV NWS forecast discussion revealed that there actually is a little something going on out there.  They described it best in yesterday’s discussion:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

410 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A weak, moisture-starved ripple will track across the international border during the afternoon/early evening with broad consensus among this morning`s mesoscale and global output. Have introduced a lower-end 20-35 pop for a few snow showers/flurries across northeastern counties accordingly, where a minor coating to perhaps a half inch of dust may accumulate.

 

You can see the snow come together on the 3 km NAM as well as on the local radar:

 

 

 

We’ve got a couple of tenths down on the boards thus far, so it looks like we’ll be adding a bit on to the December snowfall total.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.03” L.E.

 

The flakes with this current system are quite small, so not surprisingly the density came in at a fairly standard 10% H2O.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 3.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

 

[alex]

Snowing here too. Very small flakes

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Snowing here too. Very small flakes

and I see you scored an overnight low of -21F.  Nice!

[alex]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

and I see you scored an overnight low of -21F.  Nice!

Which translates to -29.5C. As a native European, that just pisses me off lol. Could have been an official -30!

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Which translates to -29.5C. As a native European, that just pisses me off lol. Could have been an official -30!

Don't worry.  You have another chance early next week.   Jeez, I just looked you didn't even make it to 0F yesterday or today.  I like extremes but this is the worst!  My parents down in Baltimore are complaining non stop. They have no idea. Maybe we don't either if we compared ourselves to our friends north of the boarder...

[alex]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Don't worry.  You have another chance early next week.   Jeez, I just looked you didn't even make it to 0F yesterday or today.  I like extremes but this is the worst!  My parents down in Baltimore are complaining non stop. They have no idea. Maybe we don't either if we compared ourselves to our friends north of the boarder...

True. It's all relative!

[wxeyeNH]

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.  Ridiculous cold.  Several reinforcements over the upcoming week.  Then the fantasy Mother of all cold next weekend.  I'd say this is impossible to happen.  Daytime highs next Saturday,  -10 to -20F over NNE.   Then a Cutter the next day!

[monadnocks]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.  Ridiculous cold.  Several reinforcements over the upcoming week.  Then the fantasy Mother of all cold next weekend.  I'd say this is impossible to happen.  Daytime highs next Saturday,  -10 to -20F over NNE.   Then a Cutter the next day!

I'm usually completely good for interesting weather but next weekend has a ton of things going on where I'm going to be partially responsible for a bunch of  teenagers. And you might say "Well, they should understand that walking home from the school in -10 isn't going to be fun" or "You definitely need to be visible walking by the side of the road in a snowstorm" but that might be an exercise in frustration. I'm so glad that D8-9 is often just a dream.

[adk]

Yea, models are really in agreement that next weekend looks COLD. Been showing that bubble of -30C air overhead for a few runs now. I don't mind some cold, but that's hard. Sadly, I also think this cold breaks with a big cutter. Law of averages says we don't go from way below average to average. We go to above average with rain and 40 hours at 48F. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: -8.9 F

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

[J.Spin]

I hadn’t expected it, but I saw some flakes in the BTV NWS point forecast here, and it sounds like we’ve got a chance for another snow event today:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

633 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 632 AM EST Saturday...clouds will continue to increase across the area today in advance of an upper level trough of low pressure. Light snow should start to break out across northern New York later this morning and especially this afternoon across the remainder of the area. Generally looking at a dusting to two inches by late this afternoon and evening.

[Hitman]

Been living in the snow globe here.  Constant refreshers.  Wintry appeal as they say.  Skiing conditions continue to be very good.   Noticed a lot of little branches blown down in the woods.  Must have happened between Wednesday night and Friday morning.  Otherwise, the snow pack is a solid base with plenty of powder on top, from upper to mid mountain.

[wxeyeNH]

I noticed at 6pm lots of reports in C/NNE of 4 to 7 mile visibility in very light snow or haze.  I took the drone up just before sunset to check on the ice conditions on Newfound Lake.  Lots of haze.  Actually its very small snow grains/diamond dust. I see it in the spotlights right now.  Clouds looked quite high.  This is the conditions that seem widespread in the Arctic air over us.  

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Hitman said:

Been living in the snow globe here.  Constant refreshers.  Wintry appeal as they say.  Skiing conditions continue to be very good.   Noticed a lot of little branches blown down in the woods.  Must have happened between Wednesday night and Friday morning.  Otherwise, the snow pack is a solid base with plenty of powder on top, from upper to mid mountain.

Yeah it was the wind on Thursday that put lifts on hold across a wide area of New England ski areas.

That cold wind was just shredding the small branches and twigs off trees.  Tamarack would know, but do branches get less flexible the colder it gets?  Or is it the opposite?  Thursday was 50mph winds at -20F and there was a lot of debris around.

Coldest observation I saw at the picnic tables was -25F, with gusts to 57mph and a wind chill of -61F.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

We picked up 0.2” of snow from yesterday’s event.  I was tempted to ascribe the snow to the remnants of Winter Storm Frankie that were passing through off to the south, but based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion, it was just from the upper level trough that had moved into the area.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: -3.3 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

[eyewall]

Yeah definite vodka cold to come. The arctic smoke of the lake is always fun with occasional steam devils. Eventually it will freeze of course. 

[adk]

The last month I remember being "cold" was February 2015.  Here is how the NWS described it: 

February Recap: February brought brutal and near record to record cold to the North Country. The month featured numerous nights of widespread below zero temperatures, even bottoming out at -10 to -30 quite a few times, as well as several bouts of extreme wind chills. It Table 1. February 2015 Average Temperatures, Departures from Normals, and Ranking among February’s as well as all months. only once went above freezing at Burlington, and thatwas only for a few hours on the 22nd . 26 out of the 28 days of the month were below normal as well. As seen in Table 1 below, departures for the month were between 13 and 15 degrees below the 1981 – 2010 Climate Normals, and finished as a Top 3 Coldest February at all of our climate sites. At our relatively newer sites of Massena, NY and Montpelier, VT, it was the coldest February on record (dating back to 1948). The month also finished in the Top 7 for any month for all sites, and actually tied with the coldest month on record at Massena (January 1994). February was also quite dry with the storm track largely to our south and east. At most of our climate sites, the month finished with about 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation, about 1 inch below the climate normals. The driest locations were in the northern Champlain Valley and northern Saint Lawrence Valleys where only a half inch to 1 inch fell. The largest snowstorm of the month came on Groundhog Day (February 2 nd) where a widespread 5 to 10 inches of snow fell across the region. There were three main large arctic outbreaks (Feb 1 st – 6 th , Feb 13th – 18th , and Feb 23rd – 24th) that sent low temperatures plummeting well below zero and gave us days that hovered in the single digits. The morning of the 24th was the coldest of the entire season with Island Pond, VT taking home the honors of being the coldest at -36 degrees. This month also saw the second consecutive year that Lake Champlain “closed”, meaning the lake had full ice coverage. This occurred on February 16th .

But looking at the data for BTV- it doesn't even seem that "cold" compared to what we are experiencing now and looking at for next weekend.  Highs were consistently above 10F with only 4 days where highs didn't get above 10 (1,2,13, 16).  We rebounded that year with a really nice spring. March was warm and April was splitter. Hit 75 in BTV on the 13th.  

 

 

 

[J.Spin]

December totals: 41.9” Snow/3.23” L.E.

 

Well, that’s it for December, so the snow and liquid totals for my location are listed above.

 

Snowfall was actually fairly average to slightly above (+5.5”, +0.33 S.D.), so there’s nothing too noteworthy about that.  What is noteworthy however is that Decembers have underperformed so heavily around here as of late that it’s the first time we’ve even reached average December snowfall in five years.

 

I was surprised to find that total liquid was well below average (-1.67”, -2.01 S.D.), so obviously conditions came together to keep things on the dry side if we were over 2 S.D. below the mean.  It wasn’t because of lack of liquid precipitation since we still had over an inch of rain, but it was definitely dry according to my averages.

[J.Spin]

I took advantage of the relative relaxation in the cold on Saturday to head out for a ski tour.  It still seemed like it was too cold to be riding lifts, but with afternoon temperatures in the upper single digits F, some sunshine, and zero wind, it definitely seem comfortable enough for a tour.  Indeed it was – within a few minutes of starting my ascent of the Bryant Trail on Bolton Valley’s backcountry network I was skinning without a hat in order to cool off.  The powder out there is decent, but there’s still that thick layer several inches below the surface keeping it from being primo, so after learning from my Tuesday tour at Timberline, I increased my ski width and dropped my preferred slope angle just a bit, and excellent results were achieved.  Some of the best places I encountered were Girl’s and Telemark Glade, where the terrain and snow really flowed well.  I’ve added a few images from the tour below, and the full report is on our website.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hoth]

On December 30, 2017 at 7:01 PM, wxeyeNH said:

I noticed at 6pm lots of reports in C/NNE of 4 to 7 mile visibility in very light snow or haze.  I took the drone up just before sunset to check on the ice conditions on Newfound Lake.  Lots of haze.  Actually its very small snow grains/diamond dust. I see it in the spotlights right now.  Clouds looked quite high.  This is the conditions that seem widespread in the Arctic air over us.  

 

That reminds me of what the sky often looks like in Norilsk.

[powderfreak]

Posted this in another thread but worth adding here for the record.

Some BTV CWA departures:

1V4... -6.3F

MPV... -6.1F

SLK... -5.5F

BTV... -3.5F

It has MVL as -7.5 but there's a bunch of missing data throughout the month so I'd toss that but it likely was in the -6F to -7F range.

For St Johnsbury and Montpelier to have departures greater than -6 is pretty incredible.  Not often you get winter months with -6 type departures. 

Also having the coldest locations with the largest negative departures...it was an incredibly cold month in the northern mountain valleys.

[Hitman]

22 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I took advantage of the relative relaxation in the cold on Saturday to head out for a ski tour.  It still seemed like it was too cold to be riding lifts, but with afternoon temperatures in the upper single digits F, some sunshine, and zero wind, it definitely seem comfortable enough for a tour.  Indeed it was – within a few minutes of starting my ascent of the Bryant Trail on Bolton Valley’s backcountry network I was skinning without a hat in order to cool off.  The powder out there is decent, but there’s still that thick layer several inches below the surface keeping it from being primo, so after learning from my Tuesday tour at Timberline, I increased my ski width and dropped my preferred slope angle just a bit, and excellent results were achieved.  Some of the best places I encountered were Girl’s and Telemark Glade, where the terrain and snow really flowed well.  I’ve added a few images from the tour below, and the full report is on our website.

 

 

 

 

 

great pics.  someone on the chairlift asked me about those red berries and I honestly dont recall seeing them before.  what kind of tree/bush are they on?

[adk]

20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Posted this in another thread but worth adding here for the record.

Some BTV CWA departures:

1V4... -6.3F

MPV... -6.1F

SLK... -5.5F

BTV... -3.5F

It has MVL as -7.5 but there's a bunch of missing data throughout the month so I'd toss that but it likely was in the -6F to -7F range.

For St Johnsbury and Montpelier to have departures greater than -6 is pretty incredible.  Not often you get winter months with -6 type departures. 

Also having the coldest locations with the largest negative departures...it was an incredibly cold month in the northern mountain valleys.

In a record hot global climate regime, nonetheless. Either get ready for a really warm February or enjoy the hottest spring and summer on record. A +6 June would be nice. No way this doesn't "average" out