NNE Winter Thread

[alex]

As the song goes, "It must have been snow, but it's over nuh-how"

Over to some very light snizzle here, so looks like that 1/3" is all we'll be able to muster from this "storm"

[J.Spin]

I hadn’t yet had a chance to post the BTV NWS advisory and projected accumulations maps for Winter Storm Riley, but I’ve had some time to grab the ones from earlier today.  Our area is in the 1-2” range on the map, and we’ve already had at least two inches at the house at this point, so we’re near the top of that projected range.

[powderfreak]

1.8" at home... nice and pasty.  Wasn't expecting anything so nice surprise.

Really no difference between town and mountain.  2.0" at High Road (3,000ft) at 3:30pm.

[eyewall]

There was about 2-3 inches at Smuggs.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[tamarack]

Windy gray day with some AM drizzle.   NNE early spring wx.  (And pretty much as forecast.)

[J.Spin]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

1.8" at home... nice and pasty.  Wasn't expecting anything so nice surprise.

Yeah, I was unsure based on the models if we’d switch to rain during the afternoon in the lower valleys, especially if precipitation rates were low.  But there have been no issues there as far as I’ve seen at home (~500’) or even on the hill at UVM (~380’); it’s all been snow.

[eyewall]

Today's snow was more than I thought we would see but it would have been nice to get a double digit event this year. Ahh well.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

Sad end to the day right now, I've got several friends with Stowe Mountain Rescue in Bingham's Falls right now looking for a hiker after they slipped and fell into the gorge, then through the ice and disappeared.  The person has been in the water and not seen for over 90 minutes now since the 911 call was place, so you can imagine what that means.

I know Eyewall has flown his drone there and it's right by the base of the ski resort.  I saw Johnson Dive Team and Cambridge Swift Water Rescue drive up the road as well.  They are bringing lights and have underwater cameras looking but obviously, you can understand the challenge in that narrow gorge in this weather and cold water.

 

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sad end to the day right now, I've got several friends with Stowe Mountain Rescue in Bingham's Falls right now looking for a hiker after they slipped and fell into the gorge, then through the ice and disappeared.  The person has been in the water and not seen for over 90 minutes now since the 911 call was place, so you can imagine what that means.

I know Eyewall has flown his drone there and it's right by the base of the ski resort.  I saw Johnson Dive Team and Cambridge Swift Water Rescue drive up the road as well.  They are bringing lights and have underwater cameras looking but obviously, you can understand the challenge in that narrow gorge in this weather and cold water.

 

Yikes doesn’t sound good. I don’t think I’d be hiking there after all the ice we’ve had. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Hopefully there is a miracle. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yikes doesn’t sound good. I don’t think I’d be hiking there after all the ice we’ve had. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Hopefully there is a miracle. 

Still not much info out but I think the only way this turns out good is if somehow it is a false alarm or something (not sure how that would happen thought).

http://www.wcax.com/content/news/Water-rescue-underway-in-Stowe-475694053.html

[eyewall]

Yeah I have been there a few times and that doesnt look good. That may be a recovery. I would have happily used my drone to assist in finding them in a situation like that.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.27” L.E.

Well, it turned out to be a pretty snowy day both here at the house and in Burlington, and it certainly gave a new covering to those typical spots in the yard where the snowpack starts to thin most easily.  Accumulation here was actually on the high side of the forecast range.

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.27 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.5

Snow Density: 11.7% H2O

Temperature: 32.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

[J.Spin]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wasn't expecting anything so nice surprise.

Indeed, it was actually a nice snowy day, and it was fun to get it with fairly moderate temperatures.

In related news, have you seen that midweek system on recent runs of the GFS (and other models to some degree) where the surface low goes into the Gulf of Maine and then actually goes somewhat north for once, instead of simply flying out to sea.  Anyway, it’s still a bit out there in time to know if there’s real potential for a track like that, but I think I’ve almost forgotten that those systems even exist because it feels like they’ve been so scarce recently.

[J.Spin]

Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Riley:

Jay Peak: 1”

Burke: 0”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 2”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 4”

Sugarbush: 4”

Middlebury: 4”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Okemo: 12”

Bromley: 10”

Magic Mountain: 14”

Stratton: 14”

Mount Snow: 14”

In this case it’s a bit of a reversal of the typical distribution where the big boys up north get the most snow and it peters off as you head south, but it’s a very cool gradient from barely an inch up at the northern border to over a foot neat the southern border.

[alex]

Strange weather pattern today. We are in the clouds with on and off flurries and Mt Washington is in the clear. You don't see that very often. 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, alex said:

Strange weather pattern today. We are in the clouds with on and off flurries and Mt Washington is in the clear. You don't see that very often. 

Yeah we had everything from some undercast to a wall of clouds moving in, to thick fog, to snow pouring over the ridgelines like a waterfall.... very odd but the moisture was low with clearing aloft which made for some interesting views.

[powderfreak]

BTV went all in with the end of the week system that both the GFS and EURO have us snowing in some way from late Tuesday night until Saturday morning from synoptic and then upslope.

These are some real high POPs for so late in the period.

Wednesday

Snow likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night

Snow. Low around 24. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday

Snow. High near 28. Northwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[powderfreak]

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 339 PM EST Saturday...Brief break in our active pattern
ends Tuesday night as we continue to monitor the potential for
a prolonged period of precipitation from Wednesday into the
weekend. Lots of uncertainty in the forecast right now with
several large scale features at play in todays NWP guidance.
First will be the aforementioned building upper trough over the
northern Plains, and how it phases or doesn`t with another upper
low dropping southward from James Bay Tuesday night. Second,
and more importantly will be high pressure currently parked over
Greenland how this will affect the amount of upstream blocking
we have to play with. Currently, the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all
in general agreement showing the upper troughs phasing together
Tuesday night, and the Greenland high shifting slightly south
and weakening enough to allow surface low pressure developing
off the Carolina coast to wrap northward just inside the
benchmark Wednesday afternoon/night, and slowly track
northeastward into the Gulf of Maine on Thursday.

Currently guidance would support rather widespread precipitation
through Thursday night with thermal profiles typical for early
March, 925-850mb below freezing supporting all snow from mid-slope
to summits, while boundary layer temps will be warm enough for a
rain/snow mix during the day and snow at night. Furthermore, with
enough blocking in the right place, upslope snows could potentially
continue Friday through Saturday as the system is slow to exit
northeast and the 850-700mb flow is prime for additional snowfall
across the high peaks. While it`s too far out to gauge how much snow
we could be looking at, the pattern certainly suggests decent
accumulations Wednesday night through Thursday night at the valley
floor, with the potential for a couple feet on the mountains.

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 339 PM EST Saturday...Brief break in our active pattern
ends Tuesday night as we continue to monitor the potential for
a prolonged period of precipitation from Wednesday into the
weekend. Lots of uncertainty in the forecast right now with
several large scale features at play in todays NWP guidance.
First will be the aforementioned building upper trough over the
northern Plains, and how it phases or doesn`t with another upper
low dropping southward from James Bay Tuesday night. Second,
and more importantly will be high pressure currently parked over
Greenland how this will affect the amount of upstream blocking
we have to play with. Currently, the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all
in general agreement showing the upper troughs phasing together
Tuesday night, and the Greenland high shifting slightly south
and weakening enough to allow surface low pressure developing
off the Carolina coast to wrap northward just inside the
benchmark Wednesday afternoon/night, and slowly track
northeastward into the Gulf of Maine on Thursday.

Currently guidance would support rather widespread precipitation
through Thursday night with thermal profiles typical for early
March, 925-850mb below freezing supporting all snow from mid-slope
to summits, while boundary layer temps will be warm enough for a
rain/snow mix during the day and snow at night. Furthermore, with
enough blocking in the right place, upslope snows could potentially
continue Friday through Saturday as the system is slow to exit
northeast and the 850-700mb flow is prime for additional snowfall
across the high peaks. While it`s too far out to gauge how much snow
we could be looking at, the pattern certainly suggests decent
accumulations Wednesday night through Thursday night at the valley
floor, with the potential for a couple feet on the mountains.

This is a discussion I like to read

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While it`s too far out to gauge how much snow we could be looking at, the pattern certainly suggests decent accumulations Wednesday night through Thursday night at the valley floor, with the potential for a couple feet on the mountains.

[mreaves]

On 3/2/2018 at 6:13 PM, powderfreak said:

Sad end to the day right now, I've got several friends with Stowe Mountain Rescue in Bingham's Falls right now looking for a hiker after they slipped and fell into the gorge, then through the ice and disappeared.  The person has been in the water and not seen for over 90 minutes now since the 911 call was place, so you can imagine what that means.

I know Eyewall has flown his drone there and it's right by the base of the ski resort.  I saw Johnson Dive Team and Cambridge Swift Water Rescue drive up the road as well.  They are bringing lights and have underwater cameras looking but obviously, you can understand the challenge in that narrow gorge in this weather and cold water.

 

Not a happy outcome. 

http://www.wcax.com/content/news/Water-rescue-underway-in-Stowe-475694053.html

[eyewall]

15 hours ago, mreaves said:

Not a happy outcome. 

http://www.wcax.com/content/news/Water-rescue-underway-in-Stowe-475694053.html

I wonder if he fell in above or below the falls.

[eyewall]

I wasn't thrilled with the Euro op run. It was a bit too far east for comfort. 

[eyewall]

Snowing here nicely now with some solid returns overhead

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

 

We’ve been having some snowfall this evening, so there should be some additional accumulation to report from this event.

[eyewall]

This next system makes me nervous here. It could easily be a screw job with BL issues and if the low slips too far east. I think the mountains will do just fine though.

[powderfreak]

16 hours ago, eyewall said:

I wonder if he fell in above or below the falls.

Such a tragedy.  He wasn't doing anything wrong or stupid... just checking it out like thousands of people do.  Lost his footing and fell into the gorge where there are those series of pools (some of those don't look deep but are like 15 feet deep) above the falls.  His buddy called 911 and I have several co-workers and friends on Stowe Mountain Rescue and some were on-scene within 5 minutes of the initial tone out from Lamoille County Dispatch. 

Stowe Mountain Rescue posted some photos on social media of the rescue operation.  Here's a friend working the underwater camera on Saturday as the search continued:

 

The Johnson Dive Team and Colchester Technical Rescue assisted as well.  I mean you can see there, you go into that black hole of a gorge above the falls with rushing water and deep pools without a rope or anything, the chance for survival is minimal.

[eyewall]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Such a tragedy.  He wasn't doing anything wrong or stupid... just checking it out like thousands of people do.  Lost his footing and fell into the gorge where there are those series of pools (some of those don't look deep but are like 15 feet deep) above the falls.  His buddy called 911 and I have several co-workers and friends on Stowe Mountain Rescue and some were on-scene within 5 minutes of the initial tone out from Lamoille County Dispatch. 

Stowe Mountain Rescue posted some photos on social media of the rescue operation.  Here's a friend working the underwater camera on Saturday as the search continued:

 

The Johnson Dive Team and Colchester Technical Rescue assisted as well.  I mean you can see there, you go into that black hole of a gorge above the falls with rushing water and deep pools without a rope or anything, the chance for survival is minimal.

Yeah it is just a terrible accident without question. The guy was on 21 too. I mean it could have easily been me at some point. I have hiked around there in winter multiple times. I am not so sure I will now.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.10” L.E.

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 18.3

Snow Density: 5.5% H2O

Temperature: 31.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

 

That should be it for the impulse that moved south through the area/inverted trough.  Next up appears to be the midweek system.

[eyewall]

I am guessing based on the NWS maps this midweek storm will only be an advisory level event here.