NNE Winter Thread

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, adk said:

Temps didn't bottom out last night....guess the massive screaming winds I heard all night and low level cloud cover kept that from happening.  Pretty amazing that temps aren't going to budge from the -single digit readings currently showing despite an increase in sun.  Sometimes I guess, it's just REALLY cold. 

It’s lightly snowing here at -12. I’ve never seen so much of this as I have this year. Usually the bitter cold is accompanied by bright blue skies. 

[dryslot]

Figure i would place this here, Its been 20 years since the devastating ice storm of 1998, Those of us who got to experience this weather phenomenon will never forget some of the experiences, The heroics and help from neighbors, All three Portland stations, WCSH6, WGME13 and WMTW8 are all running specials this weekend with footage and tales from locals of there experiences, GYX has published this report below of some of the facts from this event:
000

NOUS41 KGYX 061145
PNSGYX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 AM EST SAT JAN 06 2018

...Looking Back 20 Years--Remembering the 1998 Ice Storm...

Although it doesn`t seem that long ago, it`s now been 20 years
since the severe ice storm of 1998 hit sections New Hampshire
and Maine.  The storm knocked out power to about 1 million
people in the two States--some for more than two weeks.  In
Maine, more than 80% of the state`s population lost electrical
service during the storm.  Due to the severity of the storm,
weather-related problems continued to plague the States for
weeks after the initial storm ended.  In fact, a second and less
severe ice storm hit southern and coastal sections of Maine and
New Hampshire just two weeks after the first storm ended and
caused 200,000 people to lose power.  Following the storms, both
Maine and New Hampshire were declared federal disaster areas for
the period from January 5th through 25th.

The initial stages of the storm began Monday, January 5th when
intermittent light freezing rain and freezing drizzle developed
over parts of Maine and New Hampshire. The light mix of
precipitation continued through the day Wednesday, January 7th.
While temperatures warmed above freezing in most of New
Hampshire and some parts of southern Maine, areas of central
interior Maine remained below freezing.  By Wednesday morning,
ice accretions were reported to be between 1/8 and 1/4 inch in
central Maine with as much as 1/2 inch in several isolated
areas.  Northern Maine had light snow during this period.
Steadier and heavier freezing rain developed over New Hampshire
and central and southern Maine during Wednesday afternoon and
evening, January 7, and continued through Friday, January 9.
During that time, a quasi-stationary front was positioned south
of the States.  To the north of the front, a wedge of cold air
remained entrenched near the ground as warm moist air moved
northward from the Mid-Atlantic States.  The most severe icing
occurred in elevated areas of New Hampshire, and over most of
central and interior southern Maine.

By Saturday morning, January 10, the precipitation had ended
across all areas. Ice accretions to wires, poles, branches,
etc., ranged from about 1 to  3 inches across the region.
Accretions to communication towers were even greater.  This ice
not only provided additional weight to the objects it coated, it
also provided additional support.  As temperatures warmed above
freezing Saturday in southern sections, this additional support
melted away which caused numerous trees and branches, and at
least five radio or communication towers to fall.  Despite
sunshine, the falling ice created an imminent danger to anyone
venturing outside.  In fact, several towns declared States of
Emergency Saturday morning to keep residents from venturing
outside.  These danger of falling ice, branches, and trees
continued in southern and central Maine Sunday, particularly in
areas that failed to get above freezing during the day Saturday.

Overall, in New Hampshire, the ice storm knocked out power to
over 55,000 customers, and required replacement of 250 poles,
782 cross arms, 2,900 insulators, and 431 transformers.

In Maine, Central Maine Power Company reported that the ice
storm knocked out power to 340,000 customers (about 800,000
people) and that the utility had to replace over 3,000 poles,
over 4,000 cross arms, over 1500 transformers, and 2 to 3
million feet of cable/line due to the storm.  Bangor
Hydroelectric reported that 78,000 of their customers were
without power, and that the utility replaced over 200 poles, 65
transformers, and close to 200,000 feet of line.  The damage to
Bangor Hydroelectric service area included an eight mile stretch
of downed lines and snapped poles that provided electrical
service to coastal sections of eastern Maine.

With the many people without power across the region, it was
very fortunate that temperatures remained above normal for most
of the restoration efforts.  However, as restoration efforts
were winding down, a second ice storm knocked out power to about
33,000 customers in New Hampshire and about 75,000 customers in
Maine (a total of over 200,000 people).  However, damage to the
transmission and distribution lines in the states was much less
severe than the previous storm.  In Maine, Central Maine Power
Company replaced about 20 poles.

Auto accidents were responsible for both deaths and injuries
during the event.  In addition, carbon monoxide poisoning,
falling debris, hypothermia, and structural failures also
contributed to the death toll.  At least two people in Maine and
one from New Hampshire died from carbon monoxide poisoning.
Many more were treated at hospitals for the poisoning.  In
Maine, the State`s health bureau estimated that between 300 and
400 people statewide suffered from carbon monoxide poisoning.
In New Hampshire, one utility worker was partially paralyzed
when he was struck by a falling tree while making repairs to a
line.  In Maine, one person was killed while cleaning up fallen
debris when he was struck by a tree.  In Maine, three people
died from hypothermia.   An elderly man died in his unheated
home after falling down a flight of stairs at nightin the dark.
At the time, his home was without electricity and light.
An elderly couple died of hypothermia during the second
ice storm when they drove to get their mail.  Their car got
stuck on their driveway about 100 yards from their garage.  They
apparently were unable to return to their home safely due to the
icy conditions.  Finally, in  Maine, one person was killed when
the roof over a gas station island collapsed under the weight of
snow and ice.

Hopefully, for those who experienced the ice storm, the lessons
learned about personal preparedness during the ice storm have
not been forgotten.  For those that were too young to remember
or did not live in an affected area at the time, this
anniversary represents a good time to consider the impacts if a
similar storm hit the area again and what can be done to prepare
for and/or mitigate those impacts.

$$

Jensenius
National Weather Service
Gray, Maine

NNNN

 

 

[tamarack]

In Maine, more than 80% of the state`s population lost electrical
service during the storm.

While temperatures warmed above freezing in most of New
Hampshire and some parts of southern Maine,

Coastal Maine and the I-95 corridor from PWM south suffered comparatively minor damage and outages, and points north of MLT had snow (up to 27"), so that 80% figure represents near totality for places in between. 

Cloudy, windy, and -13 at 7 AM here.  WCI about -40.

[mreaves]

Our local CBS affiliate did a piece on the ice storm. I posted a link above. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 9.6” Snow/0.62” L.E.

 

It’s hard to tell that’s it’s really snowing with the baking powder snow floating around out there and its slow accumulation rate, but there’s no doubt about it.  This stuff doesn’t really settle, so I just let it accumulate for the past 12-hour block and there was a solid inch down.  And about the “solid”, that term works both literally and figuratively with respect to the accumulation of this snow.  My measurements have been revealing density somewhere in the 10% - 13% H₂O range, so generally under 10 to 1 snow to water ratio.

 

We’re well removed from the “main event” portion of Winter Storm Grayson now, so I was unsure whether or not to keep this snow as part of that system, but the BTV NWS indicated it’s part of the general cyclonic flow, so I’ll continue to keep it as a single event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.7

Snow Density: 13.0% H2O

Temperature: -7.2 F

Sky: Light snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

 

On the radar, you can see the snow off to the west of the Greens and here along the spine with a general NNW flow:

 

[adk]

This is just terrible.

It's -8F now in BTV with either flurries or windblown snow in the air constantly. Low grey clouds. Big gusts of wind rattling the windows. It's def the rawest day I can remember. There have been colder nights but this is the first time I've ever had that "omg this is brutal" feeling in Burlington.  

 

[eyewall]

25 minutes ago, adk said:

This is just terrible.

It's -8F now in BTV with either flurries or windblown snow in the air constantly. Low grey clouds. Big gusts of wind rattling the windows. It's def the rawest day I can remember. There have been colder nights but this is the first time I've ever had that "omg this is brutal" feeling in Burlington.  

 

Yeah it is one of the toughest days out there since I moved to VT. The roads are still horrendous as well (At least in Winooski and Essex Jct).

[wxeyeNH]

I was going to post in the "cold thread"  but seems more appropriate here...

Interesting Arctic weather last evening and this morning.   Last  evening we had  light snow develop.  Really small "flour" flakes as eek said.  It was snowing and accumulating to about 1/2".  I had to drive south one town to Bristol and nothing going on just blowing and drifting.  Came back home and hit the snow about 2 miles south of me.  It kept snowing all evening so decided to drive south again.  Same thing,  nothing just south of me but yet snow-covered roads and snow at my house.  It finally ended late evening and skies became clear till early this AM.  

Mid morning the arctic skies returned and light snow resumed.  It has been snowing at 2-3 mile vis for the past couple of hours but vis now down to under 2 miles.  Temp has moved up from -8F to -2F.  Close call if we can keep below zero.   Sattelite shows bands of moisture moving south into Central NH..  Here is a time-lapse of snow coming back in from the north..   https://video.nest.com/clip/cc3db5a19e444978919e054f65e50ea2.mp4

 

 

[alex]

Got drifts?

[powderfreak]

Decent signal for a 3-6" snowfall prior to the thaw.

EURO/NAM/GGEM arguing for 0.25-0.5" QPF... GFS a little less with .2-.4".  

These SW flow systems can be decent if you can get a standing wave going over the Adirondacks, downslope into the valley they upslope again into this area of the Greens.

The GGEM would work for Stowe and Waterbury, ha.

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Decent signal for a 3-6" snowfall prior to the thaw.

EURO/NAM/GGEM arguing for 0.25-0.5" QPF... GFS a little less with .2-.4".  

These SW flow systems can be decent if you can get a standing wave going over the Adirondacks, downslope into the valley they upslope again into this area of the Greens.

The GGEM would work for Stowe and Waterbury, ha.

Yeah of course it is going to rain the next time I can get out there and ski on Thu or Fri. 

[adk]

-19F in BTV.  BTV is going to go a solid 48hrs where the temp never got above zero.  Maybe that's happened in the time I've lived here, but I don't think so. That's impressive for the Vermont banana belt. It's hard to imagine what 40 is going to feel like. 

For reference, the record consecutive hours below 0 for BTV is 139. That was set in 1979. That brutal stretch started with BTV's lowest reading ever, -30F and then never warmed for a week.  

[eyewall]

32 minutes ago, adk said:

-19F in BTV.  BTV is going to go a solid 48hrs where the temp never got above zero.  Maybe that's happened in the time I've lived here, but I don't think so. That's impressive for the Vermont banana belt. It's hard to imagine what 40 is going to feel like. 

For reference, the record consecutive hours below 0 for BTV is 139. That was set in 1979. That brutal stretch started with BTV's lowest reading ever, -30F and then never warmed for a week.  

Between hours BTV hit -20F if you look at the obs history for 6 hourly mins. A Winooski PWS on wunderground very close to me had the same.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 9.8” Snow/0.64” L.E.

 

The snowfall finally tapered off yesterday afternoon, and the sky has cleared out this morning so that should be it for Winter Storm Grayson.  The arctic dust-style flakes falling over the past couple of days didn’t add a ton of depth to the snow, but the event as a whole added a decent amount of liquid to the snowpack, almost 2/3 of an inch.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: -15.9 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

 

The next opportunity for snow appears to be a low pressure system moving into the area tomorrow.

[wxeyeNH]

Interesting wave or lenticular cloud this morning.  I had not noticed but got a couple of phone calls from locals to look outside to see the "rainbow" cloud.  It late morning.  Sure enough, the sun was creating a rainbow effect on the ice crystals.  I don't think I have ever seen something quite like this.  Picture is below.  The cloud almost looks out of focus but I held the camera steady, that is how it looked.

Since the cloud was off to my south I made a time lapse.  Very cool to see the rotation.  Really no mountains around in that direction, the hill to my due south is only perhaps 1400 feet.   Would you call this a wave cloud or lenticular?  Here's the time lapse.  The colors don't' show up on this   https://video.nest.com/clip/53f104ef60fa46e5bb4edc364f2b8e97.mp4

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Interesting wave or lenticular cloud this morning.  I had not noticed but got a couple of phone calls from locals to look outside to see the "rainbow" cloud.  It late morning.  Sure enough, the sun was creating a rainbow effect on the ice crystals.  I don't think I have ever seen something quite like this.  Picture is below.  The cloud almost looks out of focus but I held the camera steady, that is how it looked.

Since the cloud was off to my south I made a time lapse.  Very cool to see the rotation.  Really no mountains around in that direction, the hill to my due south is only perhaps 1400 feet.   Would you call this a wave cloud or lenticular?  Here's the time lapse.  The colors don't' show up on this   https://video.nest.com/clip/53f104ef60fa46e5bb4edc364f2b8e97.mp4

 

Looks like a standing wave but very cool how it just hangs there with no real big terrain around it.

 

[powderfreak]

Nice to see some sunshine today!

Felt like t-shirt weather by 1pm when the temps got above zero in the base area.

[eekuasepinniW]

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Interesting wave or lenticular cloud this morning.  I had not noticed but got a couple of phone calls from locals to look outside to see the "rainbow" cloud.  It late morning.  Sure enough, the sun was creating a rainbow effect on the ice crystals.  I don't think I have ever seen something quite like this.  Picture is below.  The cloud almost looks out of focus but I held the camera steady, that is how it looked.

Since the cloud was off to my south I made a time lapse.  Very cool to see the rotation.  Really no mountains around in that direction, the hill to my due south is only perhaps 1400 feet.   Would you call this a wave cloud or lenticular?  Here's the time lapse.  The colors don't' show up on this   https://video.nest.com/clip/53f104ef60fa46e5bb4edc364f2b8e97.mp4

That's pretty cool.

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Interesting wave or lenticular cloud this morning.  I had not noticed but got a couple of phone calls from locals to look outside to see the "rainbow" cloud.  It late morning.  Sure enough, the sun was creating a rainbow effect on the ice crystals.  I don't think I have ever seen something quite like this.  Picture is below.  The cloud almost looks out of focus but I held the camera steady, that is how it looked.

Since the cloud was off to my south I made a time lapse.  Very cool to see the rotation.  Really no mountains around in that direction, the hill to my due south is only perhaps 1400 feet.   Would you call this a wave cloud or lenticular?  Here's the time lapse.  The colors don't' show up on this   https://video.nest.com/clip/53f104ef60fa46e5bb4edc364f2b8e97.mp4

Lenticular with cloud iridescence

[eyewall]

I am pissed this thaw with rain is going to hit on my next chance to go skiing. I couldn't go this week due to extreme cold. Anyway here are some oakledge shots when it finally creeped above 0 today.

[adk]

8 hours ago, eyewall said:

I am pissed this thaw with rain is going to hit on my next chance to go skiing. I couldn't go this week due to extreme cold. Anyway here are some oakledge shots when it finally creeped above 0 today.

As long as you catch the skiing while it's warm and possibly raining it should be really nice. This snow base can take some water and should ski like delicious mashed potatoes on Thurs and Fri.  The concern is what happens when that cold front comes back in....and/or what happens in those first 6 hours of precip as the cold ground air isn't scoured out. Though in truth I think this is lesss of a concern. It's going to be pretty mild and sunny Tuesday PM and Wed. That shoudl warm roads up enough that we're not going to get a complete glazed donut. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

The first phase of this upper-level trough with various embedded shortwaves/mesoscale features started up last night, with 0.9” on the boards this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.05inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 18.0

Snow Density: 5.6% H2O

Temperature: 13.6 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

 

The next round of snow with this system is expected to move into the area today:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

647 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 639 AM EST Monday...An upper level trough will combine with some local terrain enhancement leading to a widespread light snow event through this evening. The highest snowfall totals will be over the northern Greens where locally 6-10 inches will be possible.

 

On the regional radar there does appear to be a decent amount of moisture upstream that would move into the area:

 

[J.Spin]

The notes I saw indicated that the near-term forecast from yesterday afternoon was by Taber, I hope the weather-related product testing goes well.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

343 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

As of 318 PM EST Sunday...Large scale pattern combined with mesoscale

features look very favorable for accumulating snowfall across

the northern dacks into parts of the northern/central green

mountains of VT thru Tuesday. Thinking 4 to 8 inches with

localized amounts near Jay Peak up to 1 foot likely by Tuesday.

What perfect timing to have a day off for some product testing

on Tuesday.

[alex]

Moderate snow this morning. Not expecting much but we'll see!

[powderfreak]

Painful afternoon but that's how it goes.

The SW flow is SO FAST that it's pushing the orographic snow band downwind of the mountain and into the interior NEK.

And remember this radar image is hitting up at what like 7,000ft or something, and with 50kt flow that stuff is ending up even further east than the radar is showing.  I love the mesoscale stuff that happens around here, always interesting though.  But the mountain wave pattern developed off the Adirondacks and then into the Greens is causing the upward motion of the wave to deposit precipitation down wind of the Green Mountain spine in this area.

They are quite literally stealing our upslope snow, haha. 

[borderwx]

Pleasant surprise

5” and dumping, mountain must be getting smoked

edit: just cleared out. 

 

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, borderwx said:

Pleasant surprise

5” and dumping, mountain must be getting smoked

edit: just cleared out. 

 

I was up in Derby this afternoon and it was pouring snow. I estimated 4” when I was leaving around 5:00. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.16” L.E.

 

Yesterday’s snow associated with this upper level trough was fairly minimal, and based on PF’s comments it was generally traveling well downwind of the spine.  All I found on the boards at 6:00 P.M. was a tenth of an inch of new snow.

 

This morning though, it was snowing fairly heavily at observations time, with big flakes and 2.1” on the boards.  After that, we picked up almost an additional inch before the flakes tapered off.  Evening and morning observations are below:

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.1 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.0

Snow Density: 4.8% H2O

Temperature: 31.3 F

Sky: Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

[borderwx]

Another 2.5" overnight need with a coating of styrofoam balls. Deep winter, although skiing in 29 degrees feels more like deep fall at this point

Untitled by Chad, on Flickr

[wxeyeNH]

Finally above freezing.   So done with super cold.  It's fine by me to be cold enough for snow, teens, 20's but not the zero type stuff..

Now a period of interesting weather.  Looking like alot of qpf coming up.  How much will be liquid and how much ice for us?  Been watching the models go back and forth.  Pretty darn cold air NW of the region and how much gets in and the exact storm track will make all the difference.  SNE looks safe for all liquid.  Will have to watch closely from about Concord NH on up....