AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Going over charts in the CDC map room: Monthly climate composites, and Daily climate composites, I am aware of major pattern breaks in the last few years (more specifically, since 2012). The differences are so great, it would be almost impossible to project out 20 more years. continuation of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Going over charts in the CDC map room: Monthly climate composites, and Daily climate composites, I am aware of major pattern breaks in the last few years (more specifically, since 2012). If an IQ test, these differences are so great, it would be almost impossible to project out 20 more years. continuation of this thread It's true, there are emerging signs that we are entering or already going through an abrupt-climate shift in how the 500mb pattern works in winter and summer. Will post more comprehensively on this later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 It can go out past 20 years, but would have to be a new pattern I think. The most probable one is El Nino's occurring 2-3:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 U.S. / Russia are playing HAARP games with each other. (Yup, Russia has their own version as well). Notice how the last couple years, Siberia has had enormous, record cold near the beginning of both winters. Now their gettin back at us. These patterns are laughably fixed, wake up if u can’t see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 This is the new map It's warm for La Nina, but MJO has been in El Nino phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is the new map It's warm for La Nina, but MJO has been in El Nino phases. Scary.. things like that don’t happen for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 It's a stagnant pattern. What's scary is how spread out it is. You usually don't see blocking at the poles and mid latitudes at the same time. This is why I think it will result in a +2to+3 SD region in a month or two. Probably eastern North America or eastern Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Shifting gears a bit. This is interesting. On 1-11-11, the 2-4(memory) highest anomaly ever recorded appears 3/7,000 chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 You don't really see cold balance like this anymore. There was a big global pattern shift in 2011-2012, after this everything is much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 1:22 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: You don't really see cold balance like this anymore. There was a big global pattern shift in 2011-2012, after this everything is much different. I assume everyone has seen all the maps. Basically, to see this would be 1/100 because healthy cold mid-Winter airmasses equaled around the globe is not the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 12-21-2001, 0's 1s and 2s. So in 7000 maps, there is never such a perfect mirroring of + and - like this. I'm questioning CDC reanalysis data but my observations of real life weather situation check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 If anyone is interested, I sent NOAA an email regarding questions and observations here. I got a response to refer to the CPC. A few days later the PV retrograded north out of Canada, MJO hit historic Phase 6 amp, and now there is a #1 historic stratosphere warming being modeled. Stagnant arctic blocking has pattern changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 It looks like 1954 is the start of real data. 1948-1954 is very "basic". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 2, 2018 Author Share Posted June 2, 2018 This is what I call artificial pattern (NAO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 Chuck, what in the world are you saying/concluding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 8 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Chuck, what in the world are you saying/concluding? However, rather abrupt turn to a warmer pattern over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 On 6/5/2018 at 10:19 AM, Cold Rain said: Chuck, what in the world are you saying/concluding? Perspective is sometimes momentary, but there are sometimes real anomalies in these maps, based on a stored reference of many examples: some things stand out as different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 On 6/5/2018 at 6:53 PM, Vice-Regent said: However, rather abrupt turn to a warmer pattern over Greenland. That's really impressive. How many times I wonder has a 2-month period of 850mb heights had the highest +anomaly in the Hemisphere south of 40N? I don't know how that would effect Greenland though based on what I'm seeing on models/verification, maybe it's different (in swing)? I may be wrong. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Insane torching on the Russian side. All around nutty climate. This new Arctic pattern seems to have dropped global SSTA so ++ out of a negative I suppose. Shades of 2012 which was a colder year globally yet the lowest SIE on record. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/06/08/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-71.11,92.29,1822/loc=113.116,73.099 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 Hmm, I'm not sure Russia has been warm either. The Hemisphere has actually been cool since March compared to 2015-2017. Not saying I don't believe the image.. there have been some crazy 500mb vortexes over Greenland that may be the result of melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Hmm, I'm not sure Russia has been warm either. The Hemisphere has actually been cool since March compared to 2015-2017. Not saying I don't believe the image.. there have been some crazy 500mb vortexes over Greenland that may be the result of melt. It lends credence to your artificial pattern theory. After-all how does one witness a higher sea ice extent minimum with much warmer global temperatures (2016)? The simple explanation may be global warming is more statistically "noisy" in the warm season and/or there was a cloud cover feedback. Even now you can see it over the CAB. and I suppose as well 2012 was coming on the heels of 2011 which was a sea ice volume wrecker season. The mid-latitudes will cool when the Arctic warms. It's guaranteed in every season. There is cause to be concerned because the US just had its warmest May on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 I'll just put it here.. it's curious that models amplify areas where recent arctic ice melt has happened.. seems overly simple. You see this to the NE of Greenland too. Ie, in a real world it would look nothing like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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