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December 21st-23rd Winter Storm


hlcater

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol you said that several weeks back before we got over a foot of snow from a few clippers. I do see your mindset of the bigger the better, but it seems that with this particular setup we benefit from a weaker system in terms of snow potential. Stronger would go further west, no?

We literally are the only place that got hit with both clippers, look around yourself besides metro Detroit. We got incredibly lucky. And no a stronger system doesn't necessarily mean further west, it depends when phasing would occur, right now though there is no phasing just Southern stream energy being obliterated because the Northern stream is too strong.

Also when I made that declaration the polar vortex was going to end up near or on top of us which is normally bad for systems into this region even clippers, we got lucky that it ended up to our northeast and that we were able to get 2 clippers to come down the back side of it, though the 2nd storm was of Pacific origin as it came ashore in Central BC. Only the first system was a true clipper. 

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MKX came out with the snow predictions for the storm. We are going to get a grand total of *drumroll* 3 inches.... * sighs* Well, no Madison special this time.  :C

Bowling Green, Kentucky will do better than you with this suppressed mess.Good news for you is that you can get a decent snow around memorial day.

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk

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In Iowa, the NAM, Canadian and GFS have all returned to placing 1-2 inch snow totals in most of central iowa except the far south again, which is a departure from the last 1.5 days of model runs. This is interesting because the NWS DSM is sticking to their ice-only forecast. Perhaps they are just going with what is most dangerous at the moment despite a trend toward snow again, because likely there will still be some ice. 

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11 hours ago, harrisale said:

End of the 3km NAM showing some heavy freezing rain in southern Ontario.

Looking solid for 4-6", locally 8" across the GTA tonight into tomorrow afternoon. 

In regards to the freezing rain, potential is definitely there, however we will have to monitor the amount of CAD we can bring in with the HP to the north. Surface temperatures and temperatures at 700mb look to remain solidly below freezing. A very thin layer of warmth is possible at 850mb, which may create the risk of freezing rain especially near the lake Saturday morning before it transitions back to snow (1-3"). 

 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Amped NAM run.  Feels like old times.

NW trender makes sense with the warm regime still in effect when that wave turns the corner. Cold pushing is delayed. Those over-amped GFS runs that IWX bought into..well let's just say lesson learned on that SWS. A little more NAMage and you're in the game. I like my chances. Any bump north and I could get a really nice surprise.

 

20171221 18z 51hr NAM_12k Snowfall.png

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5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

NW trender makes sense with the warm regime still in effect when that wave turns the corner. Cold pushing is delayed. Those over-amped GFS runs that IWX bought into..well let's just say lesson learned on that SWS. A little more NAMage and you're in the game. I like my chances. Any bump north and I could get a really nice surprise.

 

20171221 18z 51hr NAM_12k Snowfall.png

To be fair, it wasn't just the GFS that went big on the cold.  The EC/GEM were advertising that ridiculous surface high right after Christmas as well.

As far as this system, not holding my breath but we'll see.

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

NW trender makes sense with the warm regime still in effect when that wave turns the corner. Cold pushing is delayed. Those over-amped GFS runs that IWX bought into..well let's just say lesson learned on that SWS. A little more NAMage and you're in the game. I like my chances. Any bump north and I could get a really nice surprise.

 

20171221 18z 51hr NAM_12k Snowfall.png

:lol:

I'll give it a 2% chance of happening.

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

:lol:

I'll give it a 2% chance of happening.

They way every model has been waffling all over the place, i'd say it has about the same chance as anything else verifying.  Clearly, the models are struggling, and seem to play catch up at the last minute.  That being said, I see your 2% and raise you 5%, LOL 

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Getting some sleet at the moment.  It's actually somewhat uplifting, as it's a form of frozen precip falling from the sky.

Finally ended the records for latest first measurable snowfall in second place and longest streak of no measurable snow in third place. This frozen precip is neat

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