jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Tarheel17 said: *I am visiting family in SE MI hence I am posting here* I think it is worth keeping an eye on the NAM. I know it has a bad rap and often goes very over-amped on systems, but following the SE boards it's had two cases recently where it was much better than the global models. 1) Sniffing out a warm nose in a strong synoptic setup. This is very prevalent in the SE from Atlantic/GOM air. Last January the NAM sniffed out a warm nose 3 days out that the EURO/GFS/GEM all missed, even with the event right on top of us. 2) Marginal temperature/precipitation event along a frontal passage. The NAM and other short range, meso-scale models predicted the precipitation field and temperature viability 3 days in advance during our Dec 8 event as cold air pushed over the mountains. The globals completely missed a relatively narrow band of 8-12 inches of snow in that environment. I am not saying to trust the NAM by any means, but it has shown enough recently in the SE to at least merit observation and consideration, even in the ~3 day range. Not sure if it was upgraded or what. the NAM gets trashed when we are tracking hurricanes even when they are on close approach but once in awhile thee NAM nails the setup and thus the track better than the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z NAM should come north with the southern system. Wave looks sharper at 60 hours. I'm starting to feel that feeling I forgot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, tuanis said: I'm starting to feel that feeling I forgot... Looking more interesting for sure. Personally, I refuse to get too excited with questions about cold air (though I think it's likely going to be good enough to get a changeover) and track. Been burned before with some of these types of setups having a runaway northwest trend in the final few days. Not always though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 56 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looking more interesting for sure. Personally, I refuse to get too excited with questions about cold air (though I think it's likely going to be good enough to get a changeover) and track. Been burned before with some of these types of setups having a runaway northwest trend in the final few days. Not always though. LAF pinger flashbacks eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 And just like that the chances of any meaningful snow here are pretty much gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Can't ignore the S/E trend on this thing. Although, the all the local Mets here in NW Ohio/SE Michigan don't seem to be buying it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Nice to come home this evening and see the positive trends. I was pretty much ready to punt last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 46 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: LAF pinger flashbacks eh? Pingers, rain, yeah. I would think there would be a limit to how far north it can go though, unless the trough goes negative tilt very quickly. So I wouldn't anticipate the low running through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pingers, rain, yeah. I would think there would be a limit to how far north it can go though, unless the trough goes negative tilt very quickly. So I wouldn't anticipate the low running through Chicago. the trend is your friend, looking better for chicago...temps not really working in our favor but moisture certainly is...lets see if we can get that cold air to move in a little faster..after that it really doesn't look promising for anything of substance except cold dry air, maybe a minor accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'm going to toot my horn. I never gave up on this. Looking forward to what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 00 NAM is no good for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 53 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: The 00 NAM is no good for Iowa. I'm one of the few it's good for stopping at h84 as it does. 11-29-11 look to it tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I'm one of the few it's good for stopping at h84 as it does. 11-29-11 look to it tbh Yeah, the way this thing is trending, could get several inches across much of S. Michigan, with hope for some sticking snow very much alive for N. Indiana/NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Believe it or not, the 00z GEM is even slower than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Believe it or not, the 00z GEM is even slower than the 12z run. Hard pass on that suppressed garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Hard pass on that suppressed garbage. At least it snows a little for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: At least it snows a little for Christmas. Mood flakes at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Mood flakes at best. That run is a bit more than mood flakes, but anyway, things are a bit of a mess right now so it's hard to put much stock in a particular model for this period through the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The NAM and GFS seem to be coming into agreement. We'll see what the Euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Believe it or not, the 00z GEM is even slower than the 12z run. I would gladly take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The NAM and GFS seem to be coming into agreement. We'll see what the Euro does Yes, the Canadian has been in its own little world, bless its heart, but to its credit it did pick up on details early on that the GFS and Euro hadn't quite accepted. Now that we have the NAM and GFS in general agreement, though, I'm less concerned about the Canadian being out in left field than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Well at least the chances of a total Xmas washout have gone down significantly. GGEM was pretty good for southern OH but was basically too far south for most. I like where the GFS is now, we'll see if it keeps creeping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 00z Euro is quite suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 00z Euro is quite suppressed. Heh, nevermind what I said earlier today. Until things shift back tomorrow lol. Christmas Eve on the other hand...Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Maybe next yr. 3 page storm thread says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 hours ago, Stebo said: Mood flakes at best. Lol you said that several weeks back before we got over a foot of snow from a few clippers. I do see your mindset of the bigger the better, but it seems that with this particular setup we benefit from a weaker system in terms of snow potential. Stronger would go further west, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Lol you said that several weeks back before we got over a foot of snow from a few clippers. I do see your mindset of the bigger the better, but it seems that with this particular setup we benefit from a weaker system in terms of snow potential. Stronger would go further west, no? That's almost always the case. Stronger storms cut to the west and weaker are suppressed much easier. This one now looks to be a whiff to the south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On to the next model fake-out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: That's almost always the case. Stronger storms cut to the west and weaker are suppressed much easier. This one now looks to be a whiff to the south now. Lol the model waffling has several days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Need we remind of the last system which formed out of nothing for DTX... This winter is far from over and there will be more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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