December 21st-23rd Winter Storm

[hlcater]

Most guidance has been relatively consistent for regarding the potential for a winter storm to impact the area around the winter solstice. While it appears many of us will probably see mostly rain, the northern portions of our sub should see snow, possibly significant. Although recently, there has been a trend in some ensemble members along with the CMC and UKie to develop the more southern piece of energy a little more. This, if realized, could bring more significant snows farther south towards MKE, or maybe even Chicago. While this isn't the most likely possibility at this point, it's one I think should be watched. Let's discuss.

[Guest]

Enjoy your 50's with Thundershowers followed by a flash freeze.

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[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, Guest said:

Enjoy your 50's with Thundershowers followed by a flash freeze.

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Never said I wasn't gonna get that. But since Wisconsin and N MI look to get a decent system I started a thread. But again, thanks for another quality post of yours.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Never said I wasn't gonna get that. But since Wisconsin and N MI look to get a decent system I started a thread. But again, thanks for another quality post of yours.

^bold talk for a guy hiding behind a name of "guest"

Still a good deal of uncertainty on the evolution as you suggested, but areas north/west should get snow in any case.

[Geoboy645]

MKE is saying the possibility of all three precip types. This could get interesting here especially if the models keep showing the snow solution. Honestly that would probably be better than having lots of rain followed by a flash freeze. Or even worse freezing rain.

[TugHillMatt]

34 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Most guidance has been relatively consistent for regarding the potential for a winter storm to impact the area around the winter solstice. While it appears many of us will probably see mostly rain, the northern portions of our sub should see snow, possibly significant. Although recently, there has been a trend in some ensemble members along with the CMC and UKie to develop the more southern piece of energy a little more. This, if realized, could bring more significant snows farther south towards MKE, or maybe even Chicago. While this isn't the most likely possibility at this point, it's one I think should be watched. Let's discuss.

Good idea in starting this. I like what the EURO seems to be showing so far. Looks like cold air pushing the low south and east a bit. The models seem to be heading a better direction for many of us in regards to this system.

[Stebo]

29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

^bold talk for a guy hiding behind a name of "guest"

Still a good deal of uncertainty on the evolution as you suggested, but areas north/west should get snow in any case.

That has an Alek undertone to it. A pointless troll post to get a rise.

[RogueWaves]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That has an Alek undertone to it. A pointless troll post to get a rise.

Ya think?? Was as obvious as the snow melting in my yard

[IWXwx]

17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That has an Alek undertone to it. A pointless troll post to get a rise.

Yep, just checked the profile. Most of his posts are either vintage Alek or he's a good wanna be imitation.

As to the thread, when all's said and done, this may end being a Madison Special as they end up reliving the old days of being bullseye.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Yep, just checked the profile. Most of his posts are either vintage Alek or he's a good wanna be imitation.

As to the thread, when all's said and done, this may end being a Madison Special as they end up reliving the old days of being bullseye.

Alek had good foresight then to sign up before Hillary lost.

[IWXwx]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Alek had good foresight then to sign up before Hillary lost.

You might be right in that it's not him, be the dude's got his schtick down.

Meanwhile, I'm rooting for Iowa, Northwest Illinois, and Wisconsin on this one. I'll take my rain and be happy.

[hlcater]

5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

You might be right in that it's not him, be the dude's got his schtick down.

Meanwhile, I'm rooting for Iowa, Northwest Illinois, and Wisconsin on this one. I'll take my rain and be happy.

Why us? I think this is firmly north of us, unless you think the Canadian and ukie are on to something...

[cyclone77]

Still some time for some more changes, but I'd be a lot more optimistic having the Euro/GFS on my side if I lived up in northern IA/southern MN.  I think for us our best shot at some sticking snows will be with whatever happens with that residual energy that kicks out around the 24th/25th.

[IWXwx]

42 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Why us? I think this is firmly north of us, unless you think the Canadian and ukie are on to something...

I haven't even looked at the UKMET, but the GFS is showing a rain flip to snow with a good 3-5" across most of Northern IA. I guess that I didn't specify which part of Iowa I was referring to. Your particular area and Northwest IL may be borderline, but close enough to have hope.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

This is one I'm following closely for a legitimate shot at significant snow. Minneapolis looks to be on the northern end of guidance but that can change. Might not break single digits for a significant time with the cold to follow. 

[IWXwx]

1 minute ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said:

This is one I'm following closely for a legitimate shot at significant snow. Minneapolis looks to be on the northern end of guidance but that can change. Might not break single digits for a significant time with the cold to follow. 

Yeah, you guys are looking at some long-running nasty cold

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Yeah, you guys are looking at some long-running nasty cold

I hope so. Arctic air usually means sunny days which is always welcome this time of year, even if it means not breaking above zero Monday and a Tuesday. 

[Geoboy645]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Yep, just checked the profile. Most of his posts are either vintage Alek or he's a good wanna be imitation.

As to the thread, when all's said and done, this may end being a Madison Special as they end up reliving the old days of being bullseye.

I'm ok with a Madison special

[Harry Perry]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Still some time for some more changes, but I'd be a lot more optimistic having the Euro/GFS on my side if I lived up in northern IA/southern MN.  I think for us our best shot at some sticking snows will be with whatever happens with that residual energy that kicks out around the 24th/25th.

I agree with you on the energy headed our way 24th/25th of the month - could bring some good snows to areas that could be* whiffed on the 21st/22nd. 

[DAFF]

GUEST <=> WAGONS WEST

[UMB WX]

Don't even get rain with it on gfs.   epic dry slot. worst climo

That entire run of 18z gfs run was produced by - rainsucks.  well minus the cold.. enjoy budy

[TugHillMatt]

Looks like the NAM is coming in a lot like the recent GFS runs. Not much precip. in the warm sector, and the track is a bit farther south and east than its previous run. If we could just get this thing to move a little farther south, a strip from Des Moines to Chicago/Milwaukee to Grand Rapids to Detroit could get some nice wintry weather.

 

P.S. See post below....

[Justin]

I will say I'm more interested in this now than I was 24hrs ago.  It appears the northern half of Iowa and top couple tiers of counties in Illinois are sitting better.   I'm now living close to prairie du chien Wisconsin and things look better for here too.   

 

For you folks watching the energy holding back, my gut feeling is that comes out further south because of the floodgates opening for cold.  That could end up being a bigger event for central Missouri to Ohio.  

[TugHillMatt]

Yes, please to the 0Z GFS run for Friday:

It's very light though...1 to 4 inch amounts.

GEM is coming in line with the GFS as well. Looking like a weaker, colder system.

[ConvectiveIA]

1 hour ago, blackrock said:

Looks like the NAM is coming in a lot like the recent GFS runs. Not much precip. in the warm sector, and the track is a bit farther south and east than its previous run. If we could just get this thing to move a little farther south, a strip from Des Moines to Chicago/Milwaukee to Grand Rapids to Detroit could get some nice wintry weather.

I have my hopes up like always for Des moines but right now I'm still in the "We might get an inch" club of belief

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said:

I have my hopes up like always for Des moines but right now I'm still in the "We might get an inch" club of belief

The GFS and GEM are also giving Des Moines, especially northern suburbs, mostly snow/wintry precip. from this system now as well. You could be looking at a couple inches. I sure hope you Iowans do!

[WxMatt21]

The GEM verbatim would make most in the subforum happy, I think. Still hanging onto the idea of a little Xmas Eve/Xmas Day snow. The 00z GFS isn't amazing, but it would bring at least some mood lake effect flakes to the table on the big day.

[RCNYILWX]

Big change on the 00z Euro and a good amount of the EPS ensemble members going to the idea of strengthening the southern low/frontal wave as it tracks northeast Friday night into Saturday. The SLP track of the operational model is typically a favorable one for accumulating snow in northern IL and northwest IN.

However, the op run does not deepen the system until it's pretty much too late to bring cold enough air in. There are a few EPS members that deepen the low quicker while still taking a favorable track. With how much model variability there's been with this system, hard to say if there's any merit to this trend on the 00z Euro/EPS, but it is something to watch with the next model cycle. Interestingly, it's somewhat similar to previous runs of the GGEM, but it backed away from that idea with the 00z run.

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[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Big change on the 00z Euro and a good amount of the EPS ensemble members going to the idea of strengthening the southern low/frontal wave as it tracks northeast Friday night into Saturday. The SLP track of the operational model is typically a favorable one for accumulating snow in northern IL and northwest IN.

However, the op run does not deepen the system until it's pretty much too late to bring cold enough air in. There are a few EPS members that deepen the low quicker while still taking a favorable track. With how much model variability there's been with this system, hard to say if there's any merit to this trend on the 00z Euro/EPS, but it is something to watch with the next model cycle. Interestingly, it's somewhat similar to previous runs of the GGEM, but it backed away from that idea with the 00z run.

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Your colleagues at the GRR NWS office discussed this in their morning discussion as well:

 

"I am becoming increasingly concerned that as the frontal boundary
slows down due to the ridge to our east that a stronger southern
stream system will emerge from the southern Plains and move
northeast Friday night. This system could bring accumulating snow to
much of our area.

The 00Z ECMWF suggests this scenario too and if trends continue I
would not be surprised at all if a decent and impactful snow event
occurs across much of our area Friday night. So we will continue to
monitor this system and guidance trends closely."

-GRR NWS
 

[RCNYILWX]

Your colleagues at the GRR NWS office discussed this in their morning discussion as well:
 
"I am becoming increasingly concerned that as the frontal boundary
slows down due to the ridge to our east that a stronger southern
stream system will emerge from the southern Plains and move
northeast Friday night. This system could bring accumulating snow to
much of our area.
The 00Z ECMWF suggests this scenario too and if trends continue I
would not be surprised at all if a decent and impactful snow event
occurs across much of our area Friday night. So we will continue to
monitor this system and guidance trends closely."
-GRR NWS
 

Nice writeup there. Hoping for positive trends on the modeling today. The 06z operational GFS made a step toward the 00z Euro, with several 06z GEFS members also jumping more substantially toward a Euro/EPS like solution. Hoosier, are we allowed to post the EPS ensemble low position graphics on here?

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