lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like from this distance that the winds start SW go to W then go WNW as the week goes on...bottom line all areas SHOULD see a healthy snow pack by end of next week. Your awfully optimistic, I don’t see anything outside of lake effect areas (E and SE) of the lakes that looks even remotely impressive. I see KBUF going under 6” for the rest of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 40 minutes ago, Phillifan22 said: 12Z Euro speeds up the trough, and has the coastal low further east for Xmas. I bet all the NE forum people are gonna go into depression, especially after the 12Z GFS caved to the 00Z Euro. Not much of a change for WNY just a bit less snow. Still looks great for LES due east of the lakes after Xmas next week! You have that backwards, todays 12Z EURO completely caved to todays 12Z GFS, so to me the GRS wins a coup for the event for Christmas as it is now a non evenmt except for the usual places downwind of the great lakes on a w-wnw wind flow regime through at least Thursday in one form or another. Here was 00Z EURO Todays 12Z EURO Todays 12Z GFS SWVA, you'll be buried by the day your supposed to leave. You might not be able to leave, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 WOW, I have to take back what I said earlier about the GFS being out to lunch and I guess the NWS has to do the same thing, lol! Everyone eats crow now and then even the guru EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 EURO snow! ABsolutely crushed, lol! Day 3 Day 5 7 Day 10 days, lol Talk about fantasy land, lol! One can only wish I suppose. The cold is definitely there, but we need moisture so........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 JB thinks it hugs the coast CHristmas eve and part of CHristmas day before transitioning into a more traditionally LES event. At least we have some sort of convergence on the 12Z suite but I haven't seen the GGEM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 So whats euro calling for 3 to 6 for both events. The one tonite through tomorrow and sunday monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 46 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Your awfully optimistic, I don’t see anything outside of lake effect areas (E and SE) of the lakes that looks even remotely impressive. I see KBUF going under 6” for the rest of December... Stop the pessimism. There will be plenty of S/W roundingthe base of the PV to spread the winds around. NWS KBUF already states this in their discussion. The euro caving is a bit of a bummer, however it is odd the 12z GFS went westward and the 12z euro went east. If the European ends up correct then the S/W coming out of the plains that never phases with the EC low will undoubtedly back the winds out ahead of it through monday night...then go Westerly and eventually wnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I don' see where euro caved at all. It was gfs that caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Buffalo finally pulled trigger for lake shore counties a general 3 to 6 from Rochester east with ice on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It did not, I just showed it above and it clearly shows it?? what don't you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Minor differnce. Yesterday gfs showed nothing. Came more to euro idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Lots of moisture headed our way! I am only talking about the Christmas eve into Christmas event Tim. Not tonights or Saturdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Lots of moisture headed our way! I am only talking about the Christmas eve into Christmas event Tim. Not tonights or Saturdays. Imo the euro idea or the previous gfs idea of the 2 LP's not phasing is unrealistic...the chance the front moves as far to the coast as suggested by both camps would be difficult based on two things, the SE ridge and the second wave of moisture on saturday would hang up the front allowing the two to merge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Minor differnce. Yesterday gfs showed nothing. Came more to euro idea Theres 3 systems, which of the 3 are you referring to? If your referring to Saturdays, yeah there's little difference but of your talking about CHristmas Event then it was a huge difference, from theser eyes. I guess everyone sees what they wanna see, lol! GFS was void of any Christmas event for days, and Vice Versa as the Euro has an event on Christmas, now it has squat, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Some of the hi res models now show Rochester never getting above freezing saturday BUF still calling for SE winds and 40+ on Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: BUF still calling for SE winds and 40+ on Saturday... Latest AFD is less bullish on any real warmth saturday and it appears most areas while getting above the freezing mark may top out in mid 30's Saturday...as for the Xmas eve system CNY is correct in a huge flip flop. Euro gives most of CWA nothing and GFS wouldbe a decent event. Still crazy that theses "super computers" can't pinpoint a storms track 60 hours from now nut that's a conversation for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Christmas event is a solid 3 to 6 inches on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Latest AFD is less bullish on any real warmth saturday and it appears most areas while getting above the freezing mark may top out in mid 30's Saturday...as for the Xmas eve system CNY is correct in a huge flip flop. Euro gives most of CWA nothing and GFS wouldbe a decent event. Still crazy that theses "super computers" can't pinpoint a storms track 60 hours from now nut that's a conversation for another thread. I'll be happy when I start seeing them lower their temps... Regarding the models, until all the pieces of energy get onshore, they usually have a tough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Christmas event is a solid 3 to 6 inches on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Getting a bit concerned about icing sat night. North of thruway. New hi res man run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Whatever bro, it doesn't matter either way! look at this Meteogram for KFYZ Wolfie, lol, one day actually 2, it doesn't get above 0! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Sweet. Brr. Can you post that graph for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Hrr 5 inches buy tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Getting a bit concerned about icing sat night. North of thruway. New hi res man run Shows icing for KORH? Nah that can never happen, lol! 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Sweet. Brr. Can you post that graph for rochester KROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 You never go below 0 because of Lake influences obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 days to go, say goodbye 1996, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 To bad most of that moisture was in spring early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 What a monster blizzard next weekend on gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Is this a joke,lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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