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Upstate/Eastern New York


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58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The lake is frozen, i'm ready for spring. 

So am I , lol, This cold is for the birds.  I am not a fan of just dry and cold air. It's hard to just say, its been cold for the past week or two as its been brutally cold.  This hasn't been your ordinary shot of cold but rather historic for some locations in NYS!

The system for Thursday into the weekend should continue to adjust Westward cause the globals look to be suffering from convective feedback.  I've never seen a system start to head up the coast along the Coastal front and then all of a sudden it jumps the system 200 miles to its East.   I may be completely wrong, but I think that is a mistake and they may be seeing it now as most of the Euro's new ensemble package has more and more of its members now clustering around a benchmark hit, as it then continues to track up into the GOM.

I may be wrong, but I'm not ready to abandon my ideas from earlier, that it should hug the coast instead of jumping it out into the Atlantic, but I guess we'll see.  Like I said before, I'm really not interested in a direct hit from the system, as its quite improbable, but rather a closed and stacked upper lvl LP up over NH would bring us a prolonged period of Lake enhanced snowfall with ample moisture throughout the BL as winds line up from the WNW and eventually NW.

This is still days away and will likely change a few more times before they really converge on a solution .  It should be much closer to the Euro's original thoughts, but if not, then I will have learned a valuable lesson..

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This band won't take long at all to drop Southward, as it usually does when a band is fully established, on a 270 trajectory! Radar out of Ontario shows this band is on the move and at a fast clip!

Well for some reason the radar doesn't show up when I, save image as, only the city's show up for some reason.

wkr_towns.gif

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