Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah looks like we don't escape a changeover Sat unless CMC verifies. Euro looks like decent compromise between GFS and CMC thru early next week? No real consensus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 A slight shift east for Saturday and we see hardly any precipitation, which is fine by me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’ll be in VA for Christmas Day where we always see a brown Christmas so obviously I’m more stoked about Dec 26 - Jan. 2. Looks like a tricky drive in on the 26th possibly as LES should be going strong. Wouldn’t mind it holding off until I get there. Hope to get settled in by 9am. What is consistent is every major model has NY state measuring snow by the feet. Looks like fun times ahead. Good midday model runs in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 KBUF HWO mentions warm temps and heavy rain on Sat...guess they're not buying the colder solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 From KBGM In summary it looks like 3-5 inches of snow from SYR-RME and points north. 1-3 inches north of ELM-BGM and < 1" of snow to the south. There will also be a period of freezing rain and sleet Friday morning that works it way north with less than .1" inches. This is looking more and more like a winter weather advisory event for late Thursday night and Friday so will mention in HWO and issue a one slide IDSS briefing to cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, vortmax said: KBUF HWO mentions warm temps and heavy rain on Sat...guess they're not buying the colder solutions... Saw that. Hope the Buffalo crew here enjoys the warm weather Saturday. Shorts or hip waders due flooding maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Kbuf always buys warm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, tim123 said: Kbuf always buys warm solution Well, our area usually warms easily due to downsloping, however, if the winds can stay NE and not veer to SE, then it may be a nice surprise. Even if the temps stay in the mid-30s, then at least the snow pack we potentially get beforehand may survive. Niagara cty. may have the best chance of staying cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 LES potential take #2 Quote However, just how that pattern change will be ushered in for the Great Lakes remains in question. A shortwave embedded in the broader troughing will track from the Dakotas through the Ohio Valley Christmas Even through Christmas Day. The EC/GEM show a stronger wave, phasing and becoming negatively tilted from the Ohio Valley to New England producing a synoptic snow storm for the forecast area. Alternatively, the GFS takes the same wave, and maintains a weaker amplitude, and misses its phasing opportunity. This would result in some scattered snow showers, and much less impact across the region. However the colder airmass is ushered into the region, the models remain in excellent agreement that a deep trough will then meander from northern Ontario across the Hudson Bay and into Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This would set the stage for a possibly significant lake effect snow event. Current model evolution and pattern recognition suggest an initially southwesterly flow turning westerly flow with ample background synoptic moisture and lift as shortwave rotate around the mean trough and high capping inversion heights all suggesting the potential for high snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: LES potential take #2 At this lead time it’s a crapshoot who gets the goods next week while polar flow is in place. But until models lock in showing something different, I would go with usual climo spots to get hit next week - southern Oswego County up thru the Tug off Ontario, and Boston Hills down to southern tier off Erie. Models seem to be trending this way too. Less trof digging over the upper GL’s and more of a sweeping polar airmass moving in on W/NW flow. So climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'd be inclined to buy the GFS Buf solution. LP moving nw of region followed by a long duration SW flow. Buf should do well. The local mets in Roc talking up a white Christmas might be real premature. Maybe cold and white are synonymous to them. Extended streamers from Erie might be our best hope. Lotsa variables still to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 52 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: LES potential take #2 That's #fakenews! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: Saw that. Hope the Buffalo crew here enjoys the warm weather Saturday. Shorts or hip waders due flooding maybe? Doubt the flooding. Snowpack is gone... Ice jams have all cleared out this morning... Dreaming of a Charlie BROWN Christmas I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 49 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: At this lead time it’s a crapshoot who gets the goods next week while polar flow is in place. But until models lock in showing something different, I would go with usual climo spots to get hit next week - southern Oswego County up thru the Tug off Ontario, and Boston Hills down to southern tier off Erie. Models seem to be trending this way too. Less trof digging over the upper GL’s and more of a sweeping polar airmass moving in on W/NW flow. So climo... Yup that SW flow keeps getting less and less and is gone on the 18 GFS. Solid W flow for the usual suspects but looks like the wastelands for BUF metro to cash in on any significant LES. Sure might get some hits base on how the SWs pass but just not feeling it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs is pretty much alone for no storm christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs is pretty nice for Friday with about 1/2” liquid for kfzy, 3k nam also with 1/2” LE with some light icing at the tail end.. Gfs may actually be rain to snow for the Saturday event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The Canadian pretty much has 3 snow events in 3 days and plenty of LES to follow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The Canadian pretty much has 3 snow events in 3 days and plenty of LES to follow... Yeah very active pattern incoming. We lose the -EPO in long range, but gain the +PNA. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 AO is all over the place. Expect very inconsistent modeling next two weeks. Don't latch on to anything beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Textbook negative EPO. Very little atlantic blocking which leads to strung out systems that don't fully close. When you have that it leads to suppression as we've seen with the last 5 days. We went from low pressure system over Green Bay to low pressure scooting off the shore of mid atlantic. This pattern is not conducive to strong cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 In terms of wind direction for LES. It's anybodys guess at this point. I think first event will be W/SW Christmas night into the 26th, the next event looks more W/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Top analogs for next week. The coldest anomalies in the entire world will be from the Midwest into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 The entire conus will be colder than normal for next few weeks I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 In conclusion the next 2 weeks will feature feet of LES somewhere along with 4-5 synoptic systems ranging from weak in the beginning timeframe to potentially strong as PNA strengthens and we get a little bit more blocking at end of time frame. Might be a warm up tossed somewhere in there, but won't last long. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs gives roc 56 inches of snow for this run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 I bet Devin at end of November during that warmspell that KBUF would get over 40" of snow in December. He said there was no chance of that happening. I really need a good last 10 days here so he owes me dinner. Just park a good LES band over the airport for a few hours next week please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs is notorious for losing storm systems dsys out only to bring it back before gameday. TBH, I could care less what the GFS says as it's been thrown out by NWS as well as a few private outlets. If absolutely hoffiric, simple as that!It must be pretty embarrassing that we, the USA, have to rely on the more sophisticated supercomputers of GB to gather a verifiable forecast, lol, what a joke. I digress, perhaps it'll be right this time? Nah, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I wont even take the GFS into consideration for the rest of the season, as its just a big POS model that cant even find continuity with itself let alone other global models, absolutely pathetic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I wont even take the GFS into consideration for the rest of the season, as its just a big POS model that cant even find continuity with itself let alone other global models, absolutely pathetic! If you squint just enough and look through a view finder the 6z goofus is starting to merge the east coast lp and the upper lakes low sunday. I believe as CNY just mentioned tge goofus is notorious for losing storms only to bring them back. I haven't heard one local met state no snow for Christmas so my guess is they are riding with the king on this one. One area of note all models to 240 out show incredible accums from southern pa right through our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: If you squint just enough and look through a view finder the 6z goofus is starting to merge the east coast lp and the upper lakes low sunday. I believe as CNY just mentioned tge goofus is notorious for losing storms only to bring them back. I haven't heard one local met state no snow for Christmas so my guess is they are riding with the king on this one. One area of note all models to 240 out show incredible accums from southern pa right through our CWA. I agree on all points Thinksnow18, as the recent 06 GFS drives the front so far off the coast, that the system ends up out near Bermuda, lol. Now watch, notorious SE bias with systems with the GFS, it'll slowly start to trend back West and eventually converge on a solution that both the GGEM and the EURO had for a couple runs now. The good ol NAM is about to come into focus soon so lets see what it brings. I don't think anyone has even mentioned it for tomorrows event. Its not a bad event, 5-6" as I DO NOT think we warm to turn over to a mix as the cold is just too dense and there are cold HP's lurking everywhere. The one thing ppl may not realize is, there is brutally cold air just to our North, indicative of how quickly the rn changed to sn last night. We have not had this kind of cold just waiting to be tapped, as it is now, the last few seasons so we all, including me, right away assume its gonna change over, or its gonna run to the West of us, Not when there's a 1038 Arctic HP to Our North you are not, lol! Anyway, GooFus will correct West, but the question will be how far West and at this point, I could care less, cause either way we snow! lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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