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Upstate/Eastern New York


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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That's really not how blocking works in this case I think.  The mean upper level trough is too far east.  In fact I think blocking isn't particularly helpful to get noreasters to affect upstate NY.  Some of bufs best Synoptic months are with la Nina and a pos nao but with confluence in the right spot.  

Incoming trough axis also positive tilt approaching east coast,  doesnt go - tilt in time to keep slp in tight enough, other than for Maine, Maritmes and maybe Eastern NE.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Incoming trough axis also positive tilt approaching east coast,  doesnt go - tilt in time to keep slp in tight enough, other than for Maine, Maritmes and maybe Eastern NE.

Yeah that's right.  Makes the scraper thing more likely.  Normally this would be a compete ots thing but there is so much energy that ocean low gets pulled back towards the coast.  

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22 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That's really not how blocking works in this case I think.  The mean upper level trough is too far east.  In fact I think blocking isn't particularly helpful to get noreasters to affect upstate NY.  Some of bufs best Synoptic months are with la Nina and a pos nao but with confluence in the right spot.  

It depends on location of blocking. An east based negative nao would result in an inland runner the majority of the time?

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

It depends on location of blocking. An east based negative nao would result in an inland runner the majority of the time?

Blocking isn't going to cause a trough way east with a developing low in the Bahamas to hit upstate NY.  Sure an east block is probably better for upstate NY since it's less effective at blocking storms.  

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Blocking isn't going to cause a trough way east with a developing low in the Bahamas to hit upstate NY.  Sure an east block is probably better for upstate NY since it's less effective at blocking storms.  

Makes sense. Obviously any storm needs a well placed through axis. You need a lot to go right to get good syntoptic in upstate ny, especially western areas. Nina’s are usually best because of southeast ridge which usually leads to more cutters then normal and a well positioned axis to ride along. But we don’t have that this year. 

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In gotta saym, I've been watching the placement of the bands from the EURO and it nailed yesterdays event, wrt wind direction primarilly but not totals, obviously but if your still up there SWVA, tonight looks real good for you.  I think you left already though unless you can stay a couple more days!

Euro till 60 hrs, not bad but I don;t believe it for my area,  but it splits the area anyway, One to my North and one to my South, lol!

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_8.thumb.png.ce6549e6e392096e9ef44f0123d20724.png

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29 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

In gotta saym, I've been watching the placement of the bands from the EURO and it nailed yesterdays event, wrt wind direction primarilly but not totals, obviously but if your still up there SWVA, tonight looks real good for you.  I think you left already though unless you can stay a couple more days!

Euro till 60 hrs, not bad but I don;t believe it for my area,  but it splits the area anyway, One to my North and one to my South, lol!

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_8.thumb.png.ce6549e6e392096e9ef44f0123d20724.png

Well, Im still here and would love to see it.  I know we're spoiled, but nothing but cold, dry and sunny here since last Tuesday.

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

In gotta saym, I've been watching the placement of the bands from the EURO and it nailed yesterdays event, wrt wind direction primarilly but not totals, obviously but if your still up there SWVA, tonight looks real good for you.  I think you left already though unless you can stay a couple more days!

Euro till 60 hrs, not bad but I don;t believe it for my area,  but it splits the area anyway, One to my North and one to my South, lol!

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_8.thumb.png.ce6549e6e392096e9ef44f0123d20724.png

Still here..  enjoying my negative teens for morning lows.  Lol!  I leave Tuesday morning.  Would love to get something besides dry and cold.  

By the way, you had more snow last night than I’ve had the whole time I’ve been here.  Ha!!

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The KBUF office the warning and advisory kings, lol, as they are they only ones who issued any type of watch for an event tomorrow into Tuesday!  I don't think this one comes weven close to verifying here but perhaps Fulton to Oswego cash's in but definitely NOT So.Oswego county as bands somehow, and I don't know why, just seem to go around us all the time as it is happening right now and has been all day. SNowing in Fulton and it dries up as it tries to follow rt 481 North and stops at Phoenix, right before my exit.  I just don't understand as winds are plenty strong enough to bring the bands further inland than last night as it was nearly calm outside.

Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
214 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Heavy lake effect snow
  possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including
  during the evening commute on Monday. Expect wind chills to
  range from 5 below zero to 20 below zero. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are possible in the most
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, now to 10 AM Monday. For
  the Winter Storm Watch, from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Significant
  reductions in visibility and difficult travel are possible.
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11 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I see officially roc got 7.2 from last eve into this am. Not a bad moderate event.

Surprised they came in an inch and half higher than me, but I think measuring every 6 hours with this type of snow really helps pump up the apparent totals.  I did not do that. 

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Same here, as I just got back from Lafayette and it was snowing, but it was extremely light, and with such brutal temps it doesn't take much to cause issues on the roads, especially rt81 through the hills South of the city!  Tough travel d and temps are quite cold and I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Time Square on the NYE!

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There's a band in No. Onondaga County that literally originates just to the NW of Fulton but not quite to Oswego and just as it gets to me, it jumps my area completely, and then reignites to my East so CNY in Brewerton may be getting some snow but just to his West where I am the Moon iis out.  Same thing happened last night after that front with that burst of snow I got.

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Just need that band a little south, Gfs has wnw winds for about 6-9 hrs before turning NW..

5D97C364-9155-412C-A89A-23FBDF097EF5.png

Close to showing me some love before I leave.  Still gives me 2-4” with ratios.  Interested to see what RGEM shows.

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23 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Getting a bit of gb connection overnite. Should be just enough for 2 to 4 inches roc east

I can't tell if its a GB connection, lift ahead of that next shortwave, low level moisture associated with that shortwave, a nocturnal maximum, or all of the above....but its been snowing for about 3 hours now with a fresh inch.  Quite happy with this bonus snow!

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