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Upstate/Eastern New York


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I'm still banking on the one for Wed and Thur, but that's just me, as there is so much more room for this to come West and I'll continue to argue for a much closer track, than what most globals, are showing except for the UKMET, which is still a good hit but I haven't seen the 00Z, so it may have Went East cause it can't go any further West, lol!

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Looking out the window I'd eyeball an additional 1-2 inches overnight.  Flake size has been reduced to grains and inland penetration is waning but at least it's still snowing the tiniest amount.  I'm about to clear the driveway so I'll have slightly more accurate totals when I return. 

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Best shot at a synoptic system may be between the 8th and the 10, cold seems to ease up some..The euro hinted at it last night and continues to show something during this time frame, ggem has jumped on board as well..

0z GFS and GEM have a lakes cutter and full meltdown with temps into 40s for upstate...followed by cold, though not as cold as right now.  Not exactly buying that at D8-9 time range but it will be a chance to validate the axiom that lake cutters always verify. ;)

Edit: Euro has snowstorm with maybe some mix here D8/9 FWIW.  Long way out...

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6 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I also think the KU method can be used since ratios should come into play as temps during the heart of the event are between -8 and -12C and drop to -21 with the last few tenths of precip falling so yeah, a nice event but anything from historic or a KU standard event!

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_boston_25.thumb.png.223faab5c7cd1761a452321e34007892.png

That map is hard to square with the EC numerical output I scanned last night.  Although it appears they were 12z numbers that i was inadvertantly viewing.  BDL (Hartford) shows 0.7" LE now...BOS about 1.1"... Cape Cod goes above 32 for part of storm (which makes no sense to me given EC's track outside the Benchmark).  So Euro did tick west on 0z...

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18 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Guesses for accumulation tonight?

Im going with just sub warning amounts for my back yard. 

Irondequoit 5”

Ontario 8”

Walworth 9”

Roc airport 3-4”

I also called for 16” in Hannibal, 6 in Syr and 9” in Skaneatles. I like my calls. I did, however, call for 5” in Fulton. Which was a huuuuuge bust. As usual. 

Ended up with just under 5 in Irondequoit. NW suburbs and NE Orleans (no warning) did the best with near a foot. 

This next one looks to be for the fishes with nuisance stuff on the south shore. Brutal...

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8.2” reported in the city at 7am(co-op) and 8” at 530 am(social media) , it has been snowing lightly since, probably finish with a storm total around 9” or so..The 3 k nam has another 0.4” of liquid for tomorrow night but  subject to change..

 

e
northwest flow will focus lake effect snow across the Western
Southern Tier off Lake Erie and from Wayne to Oswego counties off
Lake Ontario. Accumulations in these areas are likely be 3 to 7
inches, which may require winter weather advisories.

89D1BFDA-218B-4265-AEB4-FD6ACDE68ECD.png

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I went to Ithaca last summer, the Robert Treman state park was incredible. I didn't even know Cornell was located there. 

Cornell is my alma mater so I know the area. Did you make it to Taughannok Falls state park?  It's pretty spectacular. 

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Its going to hug the coast, Models all converged 4 days before the event, you think their not gonna change?  We need it close enough to switch winds into the WNW/NW for a prolonged period of time.  Could care less if we're not affected by the system itself.  Rather it close off over the NH than the Maritimes, but thats just for us over here anyway. Wanna see KBOX taint so I'll try and will this event to the West. I'll turn into JI for this event, lol, if anyone knows him from the MA thread.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We knew this a few days ago, blocking isn't strong enough. 

That's really not how blocking works in this case I think.  The mean upper level trough is too far east.  In fact I think blocking isn't particularly helpful to get noreasters to affect upstate NY.  Some of bufs best Synoptic months are with la Nina and a pos nao but with confluence in the right spot.  

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