DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Meso lows for days. What a time to be alive. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Once again we get the shaft here in So. Oswego County. Yeah yeah, I know, we got a 4" but that was pure luck, but lately its getting worse and worse, as we can't even get a forecast of 4-6" to verify, its quite laughable actually, but I'll press on and just wait for this stretch of weather to just come to an end! I know I may be ranting for no reason, but to average over 160" a yr and to only have close to 40" if that, while we should be up near 60-70 by now with Jan and Feb to go, is definitely something to rant about. I really don't count March but it has big potential, like 93', but its a crap shoot either way. Well here's to 2018, let it go out on a frigid note and hopefully 2018 comes in on a snowy note, as the potential exists!! Happy New Year to all and may it be a safe one! Awesome to see the one's who usually don't see big totals, cash in! Lake Ontario is really spreading her wealth all around this yr, so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Very nice shots Delta and Congrats to you as you've been thee most patient, lol! Congrats brutha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Glad my suspicions are coming true this would be a good one for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 BTW, the UKMET moved a tick East but still looks nice but most globals moved a tick or 2 East but its more noise and timing than anything. Rge EURO should be close to locking in on a solution and I just hope this system is close enough to swing the winds around to the WNW-NW for a period with a nice spray off LO for 24hrs straight with imbedded heavier returns and it looks good right now but that can change, and probably will! UKMET H500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Screen shot from twitter off someone from Hilton. BTW, snowing pretty damn hard in Irondequoit. Fun night. The eastern end of the lake briefly went to a NE flow. Now we are transitioning to a NW flow of pure LES. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Here Tim, through 44..I Measured 4” at 9 pm but I’m sure some settled, my neighbor said he Measured 6”, I’ll have to see in the morning when spotter reports come out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Here's the GFS and its Upper features look great for a nice tucked in SLP but no look where it has it??? MSLP and H500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Congrats on the awesome chase. Does this work? I think I can send the files too if you want. Not sure why it is coming out so small. Also question--with compaction here are there different rules for measuring snow? Down in DC we are supposed to measure and clear every six hours. I imagine that could be tough with measuring things here? Thanks for the gifs! We have the same rules with measuring here. But I'll sometimes take measurement through that 6 hour period (without clearing the whole board) to better capture the actual rates and compaction rather than just measuring at the 6 hour mark. Sometimes I can't clear it for 12 hours because I'm honestly not getting up in the middle of the night or leaving work. I would if it was a potential record event, but not run of the mill stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, wolfie09 said: Here Tim, through 45..I Measured 4” at 9 pm but I’m sure some settled, me neighbor said he Measured 6”, I’ll have to see in the morning when spotter reports come out.. Whats up with that area over me that keeps showing up, too bad its a starry night here while in KFZY it continue to -SN, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GGEM looks identical to its 12Z so some conti uity is occurring amongst individual models now we need some convergence on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Here's the GFS and its Upper features look great for a nice tucked in SLP but no look where it has it??? MSLP and H500 In regards to the day 5 coastal, That 0z GFS run has the coldest 850's over WNY that I have ever seen forecast. -35c, fairly well aligned N or NNE cyclonic flow, with marginal moisture. Could be a south shore special?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I can’t speak for kfzy but it’s moderate snow here in the northern part of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Not to mention they update hourly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Jeez wrf gives roc another 6 to 12. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: That 0z GFS run has the coldest 850's over WNY that I have ever seen forecast. -35c, fairly well aligned N or NNE cyclonic flow, with marginal moisture. Could be a south shore special?! Yes it very well may be, lol! Perhaps including areas to the East like KSYR and points N&E so heres to this thing being tucked in a bity more than is being advertised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yes it very well may be, lol! Perhaps including areas to the East like KSYR and points N&E so heres to this thing being tucked in a bity more than is being advertised! Would love to start seeing things tighten up and come west. In the nearterm I think the east end of the lake will light up for you tonight too. Winds are just not aligning down your way. Can’t believe we don’t have that Montague radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Its absolutely sickening to my stomach not having the radar since the 23rd, WTF! We went through an historic event up in the Tug without a radar and its just bull****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The clouds are just drying up as they try to come East. Its as if we have a precip shield, which thwarts away precip, from our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The squalls have become very cellular. Snows like hell and the nothing. Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Still looks like next week's storm is a hit for Downeast Maine and the Maritimes. NWP has been been pretty consistent showing this for several days now, once they all shed the idea of a close-in negative tilt system near SNE. 0Z EC has a 958 (!) mb slp near Halifax at 144h. Such a waste. At least we have random LES events to keep things interesting. And yeah, the T850's look insanely low behind that storm. Edit: 0z GEM does offer some hope for next week... but I wouldn't bank on that model w/o confirmation from something other than the Mongol Model. Being down in the MA and having to endure the cold with no payback would have me firmly ensconced in the Panic Room...serving hors d'oeuvres and glasses of wine to drown sorrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro coming in a tick or two West but it may be like the others and just experiencing some timing issue or noise. Euro bury's SNE, what else is new, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Euro coming in a tick or two West but it may be like the others and just experiencing some timing issue or noise. Euro bury's SNE, what else is new, lol! 0z Euro has 0.7" liquid for BOS and about 0.5-0.6" up along the coast into Maine. Verbatim, probably a 6-10" storm for Eastern NE. QPF drops off to 0.4" LE at KCON and 0.2" at KBDL...so an east of the CT river valley storm as shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Good for them, like they need it along the coast,! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Maybe they'll be able to ride their snowmobiles across the Boston Commons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Only hope, right now anyway, is the UKMET, which would have one heck of wrap around moisture with a nice WNW-NW wind for a couple days anyway but we'll see. I still think we get a substantial event even if the majority is in the form of LES and not of the synoptic variety but we'll see. I still think the models aren't handling the Southern branch energy correctly thats why it's swinging out so far then tries to come back as it gets captured, but it happens too late for us, but not for E-MA up through NH and ME! I still think it travels up over NYC and through SNE like the UKMET is showing. The Western ridge axis supports this thoery, but it doesn't always pan out that way, so we'll see what happens in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I also think the KU method can be used since ratios should come into play as temps during the heart of the event are between -8 and -12C and drop to -21 with the last few tenths of precip falling so yeah, a nice event but anything from historic or a KU standard event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nws 1”-3” tonight is gonna go up in flames if it continues to snow like this.. The stars are shining bright just to your East, lol! I can only laugh now as I continue to get the shaft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Look at the band nearing Binghamton, which is just sick that far away from any lake influences. I may move back South, at least I know for sure when its gonna snow or not. Being sooooo close to heavy snow is sickening, seriously. To just watch it clear up as it nears me is even more friggin maddening! Peace, off to bed as I cant even watch this anymore. At least the 00Z suite combined showed promise with no real movement to the East or West, and that's a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Best shot at a synoptic system may be between the 8th and the 10, cold seems to ease up some..The euro hinted at it last night and continues to show something during this time frame, ggem has jumped on board as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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