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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Once again we get the shaft here in So. Oswego County. Yeah yeah, I know, we got a 4" but that was pure luck, but lately its getting worse and worse, as we can't even get a forecast of 4-6" to verify, its quite laughable actually, but I'll press on and just wait for this stretch of weather to just come to an end! I know I may be ranting for no reason, but to average over 160" a yr and to only have close to 40" if that, while we should be up near 60-70 by now with Jan and Feb to go, is definitely something to rant about. I really don't count March but it has big potential, like 93', but its a crap shoot either way. Well here's to 2018, let it go out on a frigid note and hopefully 2018 comes in on a snowy note, as the potential exists!! 

Happy New Year to all and may it be a safe one!

Awesome to see the one's who usually don't see big totals, cash in! Lake Ontario is really spreading her wealth all around this yr, so far!

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BTW, the UKMET moved a tick East but still looks nice but most globals moved a tick or 2 East but its more noise and timing than anything.  Rge EURO should be close to locking in on a solution and I just hope this system is close enough to swing the winds around to the WNW-NW for a period with a nice spray off LO for 24hrs straight with imbedded heavier returns and it looks good right now but that can change, and probably will!

UKMET H500

f144.gif

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats on the awesome chase. Does this work? I think I can send the files too if you want. Not sure why it is coming out so small.

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

Also question--with compaction here are there different rules for measuring snow? Down in DC we are supposed to measure and clear every six hours. I imagine that could be tough with measuring things here?

Thanks for the gifs!  We have the same rules with measuring here.  But I'll sometimes take measurement through that 6 hour period (without clearing the whole board) to better capture the actual rates and compaction rather than just measuring at the 6 hour mark.  Sometimes I can't clear it for 12 hours because I'm honestly not getting up in the middle of the night or leaving work.  I would if it was a potential record event, but not run of the mill stuff.  

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Here Tim, through 45..I Measured 4” at 9 pm but I’m sure some settled, me neighbor said he Measured 6”, I’ll have to see in the morning when spotter reports come out..

C3764336-DFA9-488A-B9D2-DDA5870BB941.png

Whats up with that area over me that keeps showing up, too bad its a starry night here while in KFZY it continue to -SN, lol!

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21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Here's the GFS and its Upper features look great for a nice tucked in SLP but no look where it has it???

MSLP and H500

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff5a4872f8ed5eb_gfs_mslp_plev_noram_21(1).thumb.png.0d0f73ef808e8e15bcb957cd5d20e7ae.png

gfs_z500a_noram_21.thumb.png.f6ff1710815de099547f1a28dbb39607.png

In regards to the day 5 coastal, That 0z GFS run has the coldest 850's over WNY that I have ever seen forecast.  -35c, fairly well aligned N or NNE cyclonic flow, with marginal moisture.   Could be a south shore special?!

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

That 0z GFS run has the coldest 850's over WNY that I have ever seen forecast.  -35c, fairly well aligned N or NNE cyclonic flow, with marginal moisture.   Could be a south shore special?!

Yes it very well may be, lol! Perhaps including areas to the East like KSYR and points N&E so heres to this thing being tucked in a bity more than is being advertised!

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10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yes it very well may be, lol! Perhaps including areas to the East like KSYR and points N&E so heres to this thing being tucked in a bity more than is being advertised!

Would love to start seeing things tighten up and come west. 

In the nearterm I think the east end of the lake will light up for you tonight too. Winds are just not aligning down your way.  Can’t believe we don’t have that Montague radar..

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Still looks like next week's storm is a hit for Downeast Maine and the Maritimes.  NWP has been been pretty consistent showing this for several days now, once they all shed the idea of a close-in negative tilt system near SNE. 0Z EC has a 958 (!) mb slp near Halifax at 144h.  Such a waste.  At least we have random LES events to keep things interesting.  And yeah, the T850's look insanely low behind that storm.

Edit: 0z GEM does offer some hope for next week... but I wouldn't bank on that model w/o confirmation from something other than the Mongol Model.

Being down in the MA and having to endure the cold with no payback would have me firmly ensconced in the Panic Room...serving hors d'oeuvres and glasses of wine to drown sorrows.

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15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Euro coming in a tick or two West but it may be like the others and just experiencing some timing issue or noise. Euro bury's SNE, what else is new, lol!

0z Euro has 0.7" liquid for BOS and about 0.5-0.6" up along the coast into Maine. Verbatim, probably a 6-10" storm for Eastern NE.  QPF drops off to 0.4" LE at KCON and 0.2" at KBDL...so an east of the CT river valley storm as shown...

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Only hope, right now anyway, is the UKMET, which would have one heck of wrap around moisture with a nice WNW-NW wind for a couple days anyway but we'll see.  I still think we get a substantial event even if the majority is in the form of LES and not of the synoptic variety but we'll see.  I still think the models aren't handling the Southern branch energy correctly thats why it's swinging out so far then tries to come back as it gets captured, but it happens too late for us, but not for E-MA up through NH and ME! I still think it travels up over NYC and through SNE like the UKMET is showing.  The Western ridge axis supports this thoery, but it doesn't always pan out that way, so we'll see what happens in the coming days.

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Look at the band nearing Binghamton, which is just sick that far away from any lake influences. I may move back South, at least I know for sure when its gonna snow or not. Being sooooo close to heavy snow is sickening, seriously. To just watch it clear up as it nears me is even more friggin maddening!  Peace, off to bed as I cant even watch this anymore.

At least the 00Z suite combined showed promise with no real movement to the East or West, and that's a good thing!

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