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Well I'm certainly feeling more optimistic this morning!  12z GFS has nearly due north winds with more low level moisture than previous runs, and obviously all those meso models are trending nicely with tomorrow morning looking like my best shot.  The west side and even the city really need a strong northerly component to make things happen.  I'm a little worried about equilibrium levels as ridging appears to build in pretty quickly tomorrow.  

I'll take that latest run in regards to next weeks storm too.  Rochester would get crushed with lake effect under that setup even if the synoptic side missed us completely.  Still plenty of time for a good phase too.  Lots to track!  A happy New year it will be!

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well I'm certainly feeling more optimistic this morning!  12z GFS has nearly due north winds with more low level moisture than previous runs, and obviously all those meso models are trending nicely with tomorrow morning looking like my best shot.  The west side and even the city really need a strong northerly component to make things happen.  I'm a little worried about equilibrium levels as ridging appears to build in pretty quickly tomorrow.  

I'll take that latest run in regards to next weeks storm too.  Rochester would get crushed with lake effect under that setup even if the synoptic side missed us completely.  Still plenty of time for a good phase too.  Lots to track!  A happy New year it will be!

Thanks delta! It's always good to get your technical analysis. I don't even know how to look up equilibrium levels. The Lake Effect King used to be the master of that stuff- but he's gone. :mellow:

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Already over 75" on the year here while Buffalo is at 25"? Pretty brutal stretch for them the last few years. 

If this doesn’t turn around dramatically for Buffalo in the next two seasons, the drop in the next update to the thirty year average is gonna be big.

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4 minutes ago, WNash said:

If this doesn’t turn around dramatically for Buffalo in the next two seasons, the drop in the next update to the thirty year average is gonna be big.

They're in a terrible location for lake effect. You literally need a SW/SSW flow to hit them. That flow occurs 5-10% of the time in any given year. Put KBUF  at southern end of Cheektowaga or Lancaster (literally 3-4 miles away) and they average 100-110"+ per year. 

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It's coming :

At 1259 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 3 inches per hour along a line extending from Sandy Island
Beach State Park to 7 miles north of Fair Haven Beach State Park to
11 miles north of Williamson will move onshore through 230 pm. This
will bring poor visibility and slippery travel conditions to
communities near the Lake Ontario shoreline.
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