wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just north of Fulton is getting hit pretty good with that band on a n-nnw, probably around Mexico.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Shore line convergence areas. Nne from land nnw from lake. Same type thing on roc area. N from lake winds on land nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Well I'm certainly feeling more optimistic this morning! 12z GFS has nearly due north winds with more low level moisture than previous runs, and obviously all those meso models are trending nicely with tomorrow morning looking like my best shot. The west side and even the city really need a strong northerly component to make things happen. I'm a little worried about equilibrium levels as ridging appears to build in pretty quickly tomorrow. I'll take that latest run in regards to next weeks storm too. Rochester would get crushed with lake effect under that setup even if the synoptic side missed us completely. Still plenty of time for a good phase too. Lots to track! A happy New year it will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Well I'm certainly feeling more optimistic this morning! 12z GFS has nearly due north winds with more low level moisture than previous runs, and obviously all those meso models are trending nicely with tomorrow morning looking like my best shot. The west side and even the city really need a strong northerly component to make things happen. I'm a little worried about equilibrium levels as ridging appears to build in pretty quickly tomorrow. I'll take that latest run in regards to next weeks storm too. Rochester would get crushed with lake effect under that setup even if the synoptic side missed us completely. Still plenty of time for a good phase too. Lots to track! A happy New year it will be! Thanks delta! It's always good to get your technical analysis. I don't even know how to look up equilibrium levels. The Lake Effect King used to be the master of that stuff- but he's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Toronto radar already shows a NW - SE oriented band. Kevin Williams expects the W-E band (currently over the lake) to impact Roc between 2 and 4? I wasn't planning on much until 9 or 12. Lets watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Next week' storm is trending west. Ukie has low over new Hampshire. Pumping in low level moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Canadian and gfs too. Would be a great set up for roc to syr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Already over 75" on the year here while Buffalo is at 25"? Pretty brutal stretch for them the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Already over 75" on the year here while Buffalo is at 25"? Pretty brutal stretch for them the last few years. If this doesn’t turn around dramatically for Buffalo in the next two seasons, the drop in the next update to the thirty year average is gonna be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, WNash said: If this doesn’t turn around dramatically for Buffalo in the next two seasons, the drop in the next update to the thirty year average is gonna be big. They're in a terrible location for lake effect. You literally need a SW/SSW flow to hit them. That flow occurs 5-10% of the time in any given year. Put KBUF at southern end of Cheektowaga or Lancaster (literally 3-4 miles away) and they average 100-110"+ per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukmet smokes us this week. Euro usually follows. Ukmet would be feet of snow roc to syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 It's coming : At 1259 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour along a line extending from Sandy Island Beach State Park to 7 miles north of Fair Haven Beach State Park to 11 miles north of Williamson will move onshore through 230 pm. This will bring poor visibility and slippery travel conditions to communities near the Lake Ontario shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro for next weeks storm. Gets down to 955 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Definitely not the same as the UKMET. I don't even know where you got that nonsense from ( Euro follows the UKMET) as that would imply the UKMET is a more superior model? Where did you hear or read this, seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Definitely not the same as the UKMET. I don't even know where you got that nonsense from ( Euro follows the UKMET) as that would imply the UKMET is a more superior model? Where did you hear or read this, seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The entire look of the euro is different than last eve. Trend is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 One good thing to take from the 12Z suite is that the system for next week still has a ways to go and every model has a different solution from a Nuke the UKMET, to a Fish storm (Nova Scotia) GFS. Congrats Nick, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 A strong PNA with a relaxing EPO/WPO should yield to a greater potential of synoptic systems in the long range. Also, not quite as cold which would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: The entire look of the euro is different than last eve. Trend is west It is not, stop already please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Toggle images mean trough position is farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Nova Scotia would be hit with 80 MPH winds and 2 feet of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 00z top 12z bottom big diffrence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This hasn’t to be one of the most intense bands of the season. Dare I say....death band! Haha. I kid I kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 00Z Euro vs 12Z is almost the same with a difference in timing and maybe a tick or 2 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Well that makes much sense. I'm comparing it to last nights 00Z and your comparing it to yesterdays 12Z. Its gone back and forth since yesterday's 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 It looks the band will zip right by us, lol! I'm lovin this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pretty dark to my North with this incoming band, should be snowing in KFZY quite nicely now. I wonder what the next message will be regarding the radar up in Montague. Should be no excuses as its been pretty sunny up there since the big snows fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That band looks pretty wicked.. Enjoy for those that get in some good snow. I’m enjoying my flurries lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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