Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This pattern screams a more western track. Give me a break. WNY/CNY won't cash in on more than early sleet on the Friday thing. It's a western runner. Look at the corresponding lows and highs. Well, if you're basing it on the GFS output, yeah, it's self justifying. Whether it's right or not is the real question to be resolved. I'm always skeptical of large changes in runs or evolutions, which I think this is, with CMC and maybe Ukie. We have another day or so for it to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro is way east on Saturday, hardly any precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Also has a few inches on Xmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We were at 40 an hr ago and now it’s absolutely pouring snow, sticking to everything...Won’t last long but a nice “refresher “.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Here's the euro. Tell me the path of least resistance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 And ok, Saturday. I concede the point. Not the premise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Few tidbits from kbuf The aforementioned warm front will be driven north across the Great Lakes in response to ongoing cyclogenesis across the central Plains states. Strengthening frontogenesis/isentropic uplift across the area will lead initially to the development of fairly light but widespread snow across the forecast area Thursday night, with precipitation continuing into Friday, as the warm front continues to linger and gradually press north across the area. Given that temperatures will be starting out below freezing, with fairly strong warm advection occurring aloft, it is a fairly good bet that some areas will see mixed precipitation on Friday, with sleet/freezing rain not out of the question, particularly across the St. Lawrence Valley and along the Lake Ontario shore, where colder northeast flow tends to hang on longer than the models usually advertise. Temperatures Friday should rise to around 40 along the PA border, while areas along Lake Ontario and in the North Country will likely remain below freezing For those looking forward to a white Christmas, the latest model runs are more encouraging, albeit for different reasons. While considerable model differences persist Sunday night into Monday regarding the manner in which we may receive snow, they all are advertising snow in one manner or another across at least some, if not all of the forecast area. The main question is whether this will be due to the ECMWF/CMC advertised shortwave progged to pass through the area and combine with a coastal low moving up the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in a widespread synoptic snow Sunday night that morphs into lake effect on Christmas Day, or due to ongoing, and potentially significant, lake effect snows being enhanced by the GFS` more northerly interpretation of the former system. Either way, it should be a cold Christmas, with highs in the 20s Once we get through Christmas Day, the model solutions converge on what should end up being a very cold and potentially snowy period for western and north-central New York, as arctic air within a deep longwave trough settles across the Great Lakes through the coming week. It is worth noting that this is, climatologically speaking, typically the snowiest period of the year, on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Saw an nws model discussion that throws out the GFS for end of week in its entirety. Posted over in NE, FWIW. Edit: WPC blurb lifted from NE thread... THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE FAST SIDE WITH MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD ON CHRISTMAS DAY (DAY 5), WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECENS/GEFS MEAN CONSENSUS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A DECENT CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS FROM BOTH ENSEMBLES. THUS, THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY THE PREFERRED DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION FOR HANDLING OF THE EAST COAST SURFACE LOW DAYS 5-6. THE GFS WAS REMOVED ENTIRELY FROM THE FORECAST BLEND STARTING ON DAY 5, IN FAVOR OF INCREASED ENSEMBLE MEAN WEIGHTING ALONG THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 One thing for sure, plenty of cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: One thing for sure, plenty of cold.. Wow. That timeframe when the precip is .44 the 850 temps are -6 and the 500mb thickness is 527, pointing to much of that precip being of the frozen variety. This may bear some real watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This is funny, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 33 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This is funny, lol! Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Cmc crushes Rochester next week. 1 to 2 feet of lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs and Canadian couldn’t be more different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This is at 10 to 1. So with the depth of cold 20 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Someone is going to see lots of snow.. The details of who may not be clear until Sunday/Monday. 12z GFS even has a nice synoptic event next week followed by LES.. models still all over the place. Only thing they agree on run to run is it will be cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs went nuts lol Fulton does see lots of virtual snow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs and Canadian couldn’t be more different lol It'll be interesting to see KBGM / KBUF discussion updates later today to see if any change in thinking for this weekend. So far they are riding the GFS, mild temps rain etc for friday/sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 As of Right now Oswego county is just north of the mix line for Friday, they still have the rain and low 40s for Fri night/sat though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Starting to really look like a winter we've wanted for a few years now, latest from Cohen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: As of Right now Oswego county is just north of the mix line for Friday, they still have the rain and low 40s for Fri night/sat though.. I saw that. Trend on all models is to weaken lead system on friday, so precip amts not high and any changeover in CNY prob not a big deal, other than so. tier. Big Q is whether GFS verifies for weekend and keeps most precip liquid vs CMC and i think EC which shows delayed multiple waves and colder solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro is pretty cold for Friday, has at least an inch down to the PA border, 4”-5” for cny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro agrees with Canadian. Storm Christmas day too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro still a cold rain for Saturday, 1/3”-1/2”, is what it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Lake effect starts immediately after the Xmas storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro having problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro still a cold rain for Saturday, 1/3”-1/2”, is what it is lol It'll be a close call. If we can keep a NE wind, it may be more of a mix. The Canadian is a close call as well. Nice to see a trend towards a more suppressed system and more amped system for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 90% of the state below 0 tues night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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