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18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Yeah that would be a cool sight but if the snow is too heavy they might delay the game.  Had a lot of issue with slush buildup affecting the skaters and puck movement during the winter classic.  Then again I believe it is an exhibition game and the game doesn't count toward their tournament ranking so they might just say screw it and have fun. 

Agree they would have to delay if too much slush...but this is a legit tournament game. And Team USA needs to win after choking against Slovakia last night. 

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The Science is in. 12Z GFS says cold and dry with fishstorms 4eva. GEM a bit closer in with next week's system but still wide right.  Congrats Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia! We'll see what EC brings but looking like we are back to status quo ante...clipper parade.

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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The Science is in. 12Z GFS says cold and dry with fishstorms 4eva. GEM a bit closer in with next week's system but still wide right.  Congrats Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia! We'll see what EC brings but looking like we are back to status quo ante...clipper parade.

As long as Ontario stays open, I'm good with that. At least some of us will benefit from the cold air. 

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6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The Science is in. 12Z GFS says cold and dry with fishstorms 4eva. GEM a bit closer in with next week's system but still wide right.  Congrats Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia! We'll see what EC brings but looking like we are back to status quo ante...clipper parade.

Brutally cold regimes rarely give good synoptic systems. It's because the northern jet controls our weather. It keeps the snow from melting but outside lake belts it's boring. We want a battle zone of cold vs warm air with jets phasing to get good storms. 

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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Brutally cold regimes rarely give good synoptic systems. It's because the northern jet controls our weather. It keeps the snow from melting but outside lake belts it's boring. We want a battle zone of cold vs warm air with jets phasing to get good storms. 

I disagree 100%!  That storm for next week should correct West and end up pretty close to its original position.  Its extremely hard to have a ridge axis out West up by Boise Idaho, and have a system head out to sea, and if it does then so be it, but  I still think it corrects West.  I could care less about what the GFS spits out cause its likely wrong in this time frame. Euro will be out real soon so we'll all get to see.

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I still think the Euro has some work to do with the trough.  this pattern has soooo much potential it'll be really sad if we don't end this pattern with a banger or at least one large synoptic event in between some where.  Way too much cold air around for there not to be a fight back from the warm air. It can't stay this cold, wire to wire but I guess it can so on to the 18Z. We only have 14 more runs of the EURO and 22 from the GFS, lol!

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24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I disagree 100%!  That storm for next week should correct West and end up pretty close to its original position.  Its extremely hard to have a ridge axis out West up by Boise Idaho, and have a system head out to sea, and if it does then so be it, but  I still think it corrects West.  I could care less about what the GFS spits out cause its likely wrong in this time frame. Euro will be out real soon so we'll all get to see.

12Z Euro is a shank right, way wide of the mark. Congrats St. Johns NFL. Looks similar to GFS. Same crap as last week.

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21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Can we lock this up right now please!

ecmwf_z500_vort_noram_29.thumb.png.bf79b3a0767c3d09f41ffe9a711834da.png

Look at where that ridge axis is? Can it escape, yes but highly unlikely. And this is a triple phaser!

To be fair, todays 12z EC misses the phasing, allowing slp to exit stage right. But doesnt seem to miss by much. Sharp trough right off US SE coast.  There's room and time for this to change IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

12Z Euro is a shank right, way wide of the mark. Congrats St. Johns NFL. Looks similar to GFS. Same crap as last week.

Come on bro, look at the though, if you wanna nit pick about details from 6 days out, be my guest.  I'll stick to my original thinking of it hugging the coast and if I'm wrong then I will have learned a valuable lesson!

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2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Come on bro, look at the though, if you wanna nit pick about details from 6 days out, be my guest.  I'll stick to my original thinking of it hugging the coast and if I'm wrong then I will have learned a valuable lesson!

Dude, I am just describing what the model is currently displaying. It had a significant phased system for what, 1 maybe 2 runs?  Maybe It'll come back to that but both the EC and GFS have either temporarily lost the plot or are locked on to a no phase solution. Euro looks more promising to me.

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Wow, Buffalo upgraded Monroe county to a warning?!   I was just perusing the latest NAM and was disappointed by a lack of low level moisture.  As usual, they go in the opposite direction.   All I want is 3 inches or more....is that so much to ask!

I'm telling ya, this is gonna over perform. Been snowing lightly all day where I live. East side close to lake areas more likely to get warning amounts. 

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1 minute ago, vortmax said:

I'm telling ya, this is gonna over perform. Been snowing lightly all day where I live. East side more likely to get warning amounts. 

I see now that the forecast specifically says North and East of Rochester.  We really need polygons for these events.  County wide warnings are so misleading to the average joe.  Anwyay, I can buy those localized amounts with the major fluff factor expected.  Overall I'm thinking a non event for the city and 75 percent of the county.  

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10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I see now that the forecast specifically says North and East of Rochester.  We really need polygons for these events.  County wide warnings are so misleading to the average joe.  Anwyay, I can buy those localized amounts with the major fluff factor expected.  Overall I'm thinking a non event for the city and 75 percent of the county.  

Agreed. They should have northern & southern differentiation. 

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Warnings in Monroe. Hahaha. Tim called it. Does he work there?

Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Monroe and Wayne counties, mainly north and east of
  Rochester. Greatest snowfall accumulations expected along and
  north of Route 104.
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39 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Dude, I am just describing what the model is currently displaying. It had a significant phased system for what, 1 maybe 2 runs?  Maybe It'll come back to that but both the EC and GFS have either temporarily lost the plot or are locked on to a no phase solution. Euro looks more promising to me.

I was looking at the wrong map, my bad and it doesn't look much different from the 00Z run but maybe a tick West. but your right, and I was wrong!

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Warnings in Monroe. Hahaha. Tim called it. Does he work there?


Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Monroe and Wayne counties, mainly north and east of
  Rochester. Greatest snowfall accumulations expected along and
  north of Route 104.

:axe: Didn't know it verified yet, lol! Congrats are usually handed out when the Warning is actually verified, and I'll be the first to congratulate him for a good call but not until Sunday night!

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6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I trying to figure out what KBUF is looking at??

KBUF has been hijacked by kindergartners!!! That band over lake erie is eroding as it makes its way to buffalo!!! If we receive a dusting it'll be alot!!! I'm peacing out until the new year,  this has been a huge disappointment in the metro and there really isnt much action well into January. Oh well everyone have a great new year and if you cant be good be good at it!!!

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