Upstate/Eastern New York

[swva]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

No I agree with you. It shows up well on the NAM and actually gets to KBUF. The other models show it quite a bit farther south. The LES directly follows the passage of that mesolow. We should be seeing it show up on radar sometime this afternoon. Either way it should be fun to watch unfold! 

In my brief time following this week, it seems KBUF definitely favors the NAM.  RGEM did better with the last event in my opinion.  Had the heavy stuff just north of me which verified nicely.

At this point, give me some snow in the air and I will take it.  

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

lol, KBGM's map.  No collaboration whatsoever with KBUF! How the heck can KBUF put a map out with 6-8" for So, Oswego but then KBGM has <1" for Northern Onondaga so how does that even equate?

I'll take the "under" with KBGM every single time...

[rochesterdave]

34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Im sure its very difficult to forecast for the South Shore and a few other areas along the lake shore.  I personally think it has a lot to do with the way the south shore is shaped as I think there's much more convergence on the Niagara Escarpment due to its concavity which bends outward towards the Lake while the opposite is true on the SE end of the lake where the area is convex which bends inward, but this is a personal theory as I did a paper on the geography and topography of the area while in school.       

Sounds about right. Along Monroe, there is the weird inlay that terminates in Irondequoit Bay. It hurts us. Most of the time. Except when it helps us. My big snows are when a finger band develops and follows that curve on a 300-310. 

I can get 8-10". Very local stuff. 

[Thinksnow18]

23 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

And there she goes, just coming into view with a nice spin already.  Lets see how she behaves.  The band that's running parallel to the shore right now looks intense so wherever that heads, it should drop some heavy snow!

The trajectory would have the metro get a good dose of snow, but money says the land convergence from southern Ontario will screw the metro and keep the heavy band just south.

[DeltaT13]

25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Sounds about right. Along Monroe, there is the weird inlay that terminates in Irondequoit Bay. It hurts us. Most of the time. Except when it helps us. My big snows are when a finger band develops and follows that curve on a 300-310. 

I can get 8-10". Very local stuff. 

The shoreline shape in Monroe County is very unfavorable for NW events (except for the far NE corner as Dave mentions), but its quite favorable for NE wind events on the backside of Nor'Easters...and thats likely the more important time to get good enhancement when you have deep synoptic moisture available.  

Anyway, I hope my first post of the day didn't come off as too rude.  I'm cranky sometimes early in the AM...haha.  Tim is one of the few people on this forum actively following the few events that hit the South shore counties so I like to hear his optimism even if it hasn't panned out well this year.  Sat night looks decent however moisture is little less than ideal but winds are almost true North and Delta T's are virtually maxed out so maybe we'll finally squeeze out a 3-6 event  for most of the South shore.  Inland penetration could be an issue though, so perhaps its a route 104 or route 31 and North type of event.  I'm just happy to have snow in the air almost 24-7 the last 3 days even if it hasn't accumulated more than a half inch.  Just enough to keep the roads snowy and the winter spirit alive.  I'm still thinking that we'll hit a big synoptic event sooner or later...unfortunately it may happen when the pattern breaks down...as is often the case.  

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The New England crew with their 40 Mets who post in that forum, threw the Euro out and said the GFS looks good for this time frame.  They said something about the UKMET but I haven't seen it as of yet.  The Euro just looked funky last night for some reason.

0z GFS has a positive tilt trough swinging thru east coast. By the time it goes negative and closes off at h500 over Maine (hr 174), its way too late, unless you're in the Maritimes. The 0z euro, has a sharper but neutral tilt trough exiting the east coast at around 144 hrs.  Neither of these models show anything looking like an east coast snowstorm though Euro trough feature shows better promise.    Both of these have an upstream kicker that looks like it ensures any development is well offshore. In fact, the kicker system on GFS does a similar thing. 

This could totally change next model run but FWIW they don't seem unreasonable and I wouldn't be tossing them because they don't generate an east coast blizzard. In fact, from a probability standpoint, they are far more likely than a negative tilt system that stalls and becomes stacked hovering over/near NE.

[BuffaloWeather]

20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Sounds about right. Along Monroe, there is the weird inlay that terminates in Irondequoit Bay. It hurts us. Most of the time. Except when it helps us. My big snows are when a finger band develops and follows that curve on a 300-310. 

I can get 8-10". Very local stuff. 

Yeah Rochester gets most of its annual snow from fluff bombs that go unpredicted by most models. Many times radar doesn't even pick it up and can get 1-2" per hour. I'd say Rochester in general is the hardest place to forecast for LES. They need there own radar network there. They're a big enough city for it. 

[rochesterdave]

15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The shoreline shape in Monroe County is very unfavorable for NW events (except for the far NE corner as Dave mentions), but its quite favorable for NE wind events on the backside of Nor'Easters...and thats likely the more important time to get good enhancement when you have deep synoptic moisture available.  

Anyway, I hope my first post of the day didn't come off as too rude.  I'm cranky sometimes early in the AM...haha.  Tim is one of the few people on this forum actively following the few events that hit the South shore counties so I like to hear is optimism even if it hasn't panned out well this year.  Sat night looks decent however moisture is little less than ideal but winds are almost true North and Delta T's are virtually maxed out so maybe we'll finally squeeze out a 3-6 event  for most of the South shore.  Inland penetration could be an issue though, so perhaps its a route 104 or route 31 and North type of event.  I'm just happy to have snow in the air almost 24-7 the last 3 days even if it hasn't accumulated more than a half inch.  Just enough to keep the roads snowy and the winter spirit alive.  I'm still thinking that we'll hit a big synoptic event sooner or later...unfortunately it may happen when the pattern breaks down...as is often the case.  

Oh yeah Delta! So true. Any NE wind and we max out. Rochester gets killed on synoptic storms that stay to our south or especially SE. I love looking at a dark green radar and picking out that yellow band of enhancement that almost always develops over all of Monroe county. 

Tim is invaluable to this place. He gives voice to the eternally hopeful snowlover inside of all of us! 

[DeltaT13]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah Rochester gets most of its annual snow from fluff bombs that go unpredicted by most models. Many times radar doesn't even pick it up and can get 1-2" per hour. I'd say Rochester in general is the hardest place to forecast for LES. They need there own radar network there. They're a big enough city for it. 

Much like Buffalo, if the airport was in a slightly different location the climo stats would be much different.  Hamlin-Greece-Irondequoit usually do quite a bit better than the airport and its only a difference of about 10 miles.  

As for the radar....oh man, how nice would that be.  I always thought if I hit the mega millions maybe I would gift the NWS money to build one...hahaha.  It's a shame that the Brockport radar is virtually useless.  Does anyone know if it's even functional anymore?  It would be great in these types of events.  

[rochesterdave]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah Rochester gets most of its annual snow from fluff bombs that go unpredicted by most models. Many times radar doesn't even pick it up and can get 1-2" per hour. I'd say Rochester in general is the hardest place to forecast for LES. They need there own radar network there. They're a big enough city for it. 

We need a radar!! Wayne county is invisible most of the time. 

[rochesterdave]

A local met was posting a Doppler radar out of Syracuse that was catching most of Wayne. Anyone got a link? 

[Superstorm]

Much like Buffalo, if the airport was in a slightly different location the climo stats would be much different.  Hamlin-Greece-Irondequoit usually do quite a bit better than the airport and its only a different of about 10 miles.  
As for the radar....oh man, how nice would that be.  I always thought if I hit the mega millions maybe I would gift the NWS money to build one...hahaha.  It's a shame that the Brockport radar is virtually useless.  Does anyone know if it's even functional anymore?  It would be great in these types of events.  

And it’s not by chance the airport is not in a favored LES location.


.

[DeltaT13]

Just now, Superstorm said:

And it’s not by chance the airport is not in a favored LES location.


.

An interesting take but I'm skeptical the weather had much of a hand in where to place the airport.  The Buffalo Airport is lined up with one of the heaviest possible snowbands in the entire US.  

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Much like Buffalo, if the airport was in a slightly different location the climo stats would be much different.  Hamlin-Greece-Irondequoit usually do quite a bit better than the airport and its only a different of about 10 miles.  

As for the radar....oh man, how nice would that be.  I always thought if I hit the mega millions maybe I would gift the NWS money to build one...hahaha.  It's a shame that the Brockport radar is virtually useless.  Does anyone know if it's even functional anymore?  It would be great in these types of events.  

Yeah, Syracuse airport is in favored location for high annual totals, KBUF and KROC are not. If they were the annual would be well over 100" per year. 

If Gaylord Michigan and there 10k people in northern lower get a radar, Rochester should too. Brockport is so close and they have great schools in RIT and UOR. 

[DeltaT13]

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

A local met was posting a Doppler radar out of Syracuse that was catching most of Wayne. Anyone got a link? 

I think its called the live doppler 9 or something like that.

http://www.localsyr.com/live-video-two

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Much like Buffalo, if the airport was in a slightly different location the climo stats would be much different.  Hamlin-Greece-Irondequoit usually do quite a bit better than the airport and its only a different of about 10 miles.  

As for the radar....oh man, how nice would that be.  I always thought if I hit the mega millions maybe I would gift the NWS money to build one...hahaha.  It's a shame that the Brockport radar is virtually useless.  Does anyone know if it's even functional anymore?  It would be great in these types of events.  

NWS is so strapped for cash they're not filling open positions nationwide and per an article I saw recently, are apparently having wx balloon launches cut back at times up in Alaska due to the personnel shortage...which could impact NWP at times.  NWS spokespeople deny there's anything harmful going on, which makes me believe the concerns are probably quite real.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

An interesting take but I'm skeptical the weather had much of a hand in where to place the airport.  The Buffalo Airport is lined up with one of the heaviest possible snowbands in the entire US.  

Yep, if the winds were SW when Erie got 60+ inches can you imagine the band that would have hit KBUF? Would have been 6-8" per hour I'd imagine. One of these years we are going to get that. 

[vortmax]

4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

NWS spokespeople deny there's anything harmful going on, which makes me believe the concerns are probably quite real.

There's nothing to see here... Lol

[DeltaT13]

Interesting, just did some digging.  WHEC Channel 10 in Rochester owns the Doppler radar that is on top of Mortimer hall at SUNY Brockport, but it appears as if this radar has been offline for years and the channel 10 website just streams the NWS radar now while calling it their own, lol.  That's really too bad.  I wonder what it would take to get that thing back online?  I'm sure not worth the time or effort to a struggling news channel.  

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

NWS is so strapped for cash they're not filling open positions nationwide and per an article I saw recently, are apparently having wx balloon launches cut back at times up in Alaska due to the personnel shortage...which could impact NWP at times.  NWS spokespeople deny there's anything harmful going on, which makes me believe the concerns are probably quite real.

The first thing Trump did when he went into office was cut NOAA funding. =/

[Syrmax]

Maybe OT, but not completely...listening to news on 570 AM this morning driving into work. They were "reporting" on the lake effect in Oswego County, state of emergency lifted in Oswego etc.

Presenter than states that the huge lake effect was a result of very cold air flowing over lake ontario temps that are above normal.  (My cynical brain goes on alert that this #fakenews statement comes out of the Climate Change mantra in the media that seeks to make any wx event seem unusual and a first...). 

But then there's this from the other day:

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

And there she goes, just coming into view with a nice spin already.  Lets see how she behaves.  The band that's running parallel to the shore right now looks intense so wherever that heads, it should drop some heavy snow!

What radar is this? 

[DeltaT13]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep, if the winds were SW when Erie got 60+ inches can you imagine the band that would have hit KBUF? Would have been 6-8" per hour I'd imagine. One of these years we are going to get that. 

KBUF missed that November '14 events by less than 5 degrees of wind direction.  If the airport took the brunt I think we might have seen some all time snowfall records broken.  I'm a firm believer someone went over 100 inches (in less than 3 days) in that event but it was impossible to measure accurately without the proper tools and staff to measure around the clock.  The NWS office would gotten the measurements at the right intervals.  It's a travesty that such an epic event couldn't be accurately recorded.  

[Buffalo Bumble]

40 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The trajectory would have the metro get a good dose of snow, but money says the land convergence from southern Ontario will screw the metro and keep the heavy band just south.

If this ends up coming onshore in the south towns later this afternoon, folks might want to check out the outdoor US v Canada hockey game on NHL Network at 3pm. For those non-hockey fans, the game is being played at New Era Field. Bills v Colts part 2...?

[Syrmax]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The first thing Trump did when he went into office was cut NOAA funding. =/

I've heard that. To be fair, a KBGM met that I chatted with stated their funding and staffing problems go back years, to the previous admin...although it appears the current admin certainly isn't helping...

[Buffalo Bumble]

8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

KBUF missed that November '14 events by less than 5 degrees of wind direction.  If the airport took the brunt I think we might have seen some all time snowfall records broken.  I'm a firm believer someone went over 100 inches (in less than 3 days) in that event but it was impossible to measure accurately without the proper tools and staff to measure around the clock.  The NWS office would gotten the measurements at the right intervals.  It's a travesty that such an epic event couldn't be accurately recorded.  

Totally agree. The snow depth I saw right after that was astounding. 

[rochesterdave]

25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think its called the live doppler 9 or something like that.

http://www.localsyr.com/live-video-two

That's it Delta! Hey Tim, bookmark this. It's the only thing that catches Lake fluff in Wayne. 

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

That's it Delta! Hey Tim, bookmark this. It's the only thing that catches Lake fluff in Wayne. 

That's the radar and news website we've b!tched about local to syr. Great radar but they've junked up their website so much that it's a shell of what it used to be, from a usability standpoint.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

If this ends up coming onshore in the south towns later this afternoon, folks might want to check out the outdoor US v Canada hockey game on NHL Network at 3pm. For those non-hockey fans, the game is being played at New Era Field. Bills v Colts part 2...?

Yeah that would be a cool sight but if the snow is too heavy they might delay the game.  Had a lot of issue with slush buildup affecting the skaters and puck movement during the winter classic.  Then again I believe it is an exhibition game and the game doesn't count toward their tournament ranking so they might just say screw it and have fun. 

[WxNoob]

Has been snowing at a good clip all morning in Lansing thanks to Cayuga Lake.  Measured at least 4 inches still coming down strong, best event of the year so far lol!